WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i dont get this fast flow with blocking/-NAO. I thought everything was supposed to slow down--make things easier to phase with blocking I think I has to do with the weak ridging in the west. That’s the first thing needed to slow systems down. At least that seems logical to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The middle to late month time frame is beginning to show a consistent look of either PV lobes dropping into the Great Lakes area, or just a dominant cross-polar flow regime with the 5H bridging nestled over western US/Canada by Day 10+. This is not the typical pattern to score big potential unless we get some kind of phasing to occur in the southern US, but this will be a door opening to high ratio fluff from progressive clippers that dive through the northern plains and head eastward. Snow pack will be increasing to the north and west, leading to less chances of modifying airmasses by the time it reaches Mid Atlantic longitude. This will also lay the grounds for a further south baroclinic alignment which could be fruitful for later in winter. Not a slam dunk obviously, but better than where it currently stands. Overunning SWFE when HL ridging relaxes. This is a good setup historically as when these cpf looks break down we get smacked. No, I'm not punting mid Jan but as WXUSAF noted the look is more cold and clippers and not big dog verbatim in the heart of this regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont get this fast flow with blocking/-NAO. I thought everything was supposed to slow down--make things easier to phase with blocking Bootleg NAO ridge not a true H5 block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: Is it safe to assume that beyond this period , when the block relaxes the odds of a more significant all snow event increases for the northern Mid-Atlantic region? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I also agree that the potential for big dogs have gone down for the next 2 weeks. So far it looks like 6-12'' cold powder overrunning is the most likely with plenty of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Is it safe to assume tha beyond this, when the block relaxes the odds of a more significant all snow event increases for the northern Mid-Atlantic region? I would think so, but of course, there's no guarantee. As @WinterWxLuvr alluded to above, it should increase the threat for winter wx overall, but anything that cuts would still likely be a messy scenario with overrunning, then a flip due to WAA torching the boundary layer. I think the setup lays the grounds for easier ways to score. Significant snow is all prudent to the setup. If we lose amplification of the NHemi pattern and we shift to a zonal regime, anything of significance will be put on the back burner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EPS for midweek storm not very strong. Just a few good hits. ( the percentage in SW VA is for tomorrow’s system.) It's actually decent agreement from a week out with the op for a west of the fall line storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I would think so, but of course, there's no guarantee. As @WinterWxLuvr alluded to above, it should increase the threat for winter wx overall, but anything that cuts would still likely be a messy scenario with overrunning, then a flip due to WAA torching the boundary layer. I think the setup lays the grounds for easier ways to score. Significant snow is all prudent to the setup. If we lose amplification of the NHemi pattern and we shift to a zonal regime, anything of significance will be put on the back burner. I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as we all are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into the hybrids we were talking about in the other thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 hours ago, stormtracker said: Well, so far a pleasant suprise. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021010700&fh=132&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&m=ecmwf_full That high off the coast looks to be in the perfect location for Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think I has to do with the weak ridging in the west. That’s the first thing needed to slow systems down. At least that seems logical to me Exactly. West coast is NOT blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bootleg NAO ridge not a true H5 block. Can you clarify what makes the upcoming pattern a bootleg NAO ridge vs a true H5 block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont get this fast flow with blocking/-NAO. I thought everything was supposed to slow down--make things easier to phase with blocking pac puke 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as well are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into they hybrids we were talking about in the other thread The blocking we have currently would be fine but there is a split flow and nothing but Pac air around for the near term. It looks like the pattern evolution will finally get some decent cold in our source region via EPO ridging, but the tradeoff may be a weaker -NAO. We always flirt with failure no matter what the pattern is, but given how we seem to fail more often lately with marginal air even with pretty favorable h5 looks, I am all for getting some legit cold in here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can you clarify what makes the upcoming pattern a bootleg NAO ridge vs a true H5 block? Ridging look to H5 contours at 500mb, not closed off. Look at 6z gfs just for an example. At 114 hrs there is ridging in the isobars. Nothing us closed off as a true block. Then look at 276. A closed H5 look several isos deep. That is a true block look vs a ridge. Not saying it will verify just an example. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Can we get a redux? Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!! That's from 5 years ago, and we would all happily take that again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: That's from 5 years ago, and we would all happily take that again. Whoops! Didn't look at the year...c'mon @Ralph Wiggum just why? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 the GFS Para never brings any cold air through 384 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Whoops! Didn't look at the year...c'mon @Ralph Wiggum just why? Lol if that map was current, do you think there would of been only 20 posts since last night. C'mon man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the GFS Para never brings any cold air through 384 Cold bias eliminated But I thought it was doing better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 March might be nasty this year. If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. @SimonLeeWx The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW: 10:19 AM · Jan 7, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, frd said: March might be nasty this year. If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. @SimonLeeWx The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW: 10:19 AM · Jan 7, 2021 HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Dripping paint analogy from 04. I believe this is what the image shows. Not sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: if that map was current, do you think there would of been only 20 posts since last night. C'mon man! True, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year! Well why not. Shoulder month , fits the bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as we all are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into the hybrids we were talking about in the other thread My favorite part about SWFE events is the ferocity of the thump with a more organized system. No waste on virga, hot and heavy starts, massive aggregates, and typically pastes everything into a wintry scene. I know that you probably really enjoy those living well west of the fall line. Some of the best 12"+ storms are like that in your hood. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 FWIW ICON. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content. 2 hours ago, mappy said: Sounds good to me. I removed the subtitle re the WxUSAF storm and changed it to a new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: I hate it here. this one seems to have a better chance to bump north than the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Even though I'm being half serious....my recollection that in Nina's IF there are any storms around us it typically happens in the South or on the shore. I don't see anything unusual with what some of the models are spitting out. Feel free to correct me, i'm not here to be right just expressing my thought on our current situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now