BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021010618&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= . Would you really be okay with that little snow for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That wasn’t a prediction. I still bet this works out to some degree. But DC is below where I would have expected right now based on the dominant pattern Dec 1 to now. No I know you weren’t predicting that. I’m just saying the perspective may change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z eps?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 18z eps? . Must have been a real doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Must have been a real doozy. I think people are a little distracted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wrt Friday...most guidance tracks the surface low over the outer banks and the upper low across southern VA. That’s a track that normally would get some snow into DC. And you can see hints at that on the moisture and RH fields. But the NS is nowhere to be found. A rotting airmass with a crap weak baroclinic zone so very little lift and no organized precip outside the convective banding under the upper low just NW of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I think people are a little distracted. Gee, I wonder why? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wrt Friday...most guidance tracks the surface low over the outer banks and the upper low across southern VA. That’s a track that normally would get some snow into DC. And you can see hints at that on the moisture and RH fields. But the NS is nowhere to be found. A rotting airmass with a crap weak baroclinic zone so very little lift and no organized precip outside the convective banding under the upper low just NW of the surface low. How does that impact RVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: I’m sure someone way smarter than me can comment on the 18z EPS but just looking at 500 height anomaly, I’d say a step back from 12z for sure. It looks great at 120: But then looks to shear out as it gets towards the coast: Resulting MSLP just drifts off the coast of the southeast: That's the GEFS, unless you're comparing that to the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: That's the GEFS, unless you're comparing that to the EPS. Yeah, sorry I deleted my post already. I realized I was looking at the GEFS. Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah, sorry I deleted my post already. I realized I was looking at the GEFS. Oops! That still doesn’t make me feel better . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z eps was less amplified with the wave compared to 12z. It’s just one run. It’s pretty far out. Don’t react to every little fluctuation run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ji said: That still doesn’t make me feel better . Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I need some snow, where’s Ji for me to complain to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 42 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: How does that impact RVA? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z eps was less amplified with the wave compared to 12z. It’s just one run. It’s pretty far out. Don’t react to every little fluctuation run to run. Can’t ever get 2 runs in a row that make us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: Can’t ever get 2 runs in a row that make us happy . Don’t you mean one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: Can’t ever get 2 runs in a row that make us happy . We just had 2 consecutive good runs of the euro yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Look...normally I wouldn't do this, but these are desperate times. I'll allow it. The NAM at 84 hours H5.....not bad. Don't look at me like that. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look...normally I wouldn't do this, but these are desperate times. I'll allow it. The NAM at 84 hours H5.....not bad. Don't look at me like that. Sorry to stare: not because of NAM extrapolation. It's just that you remind me of someone famous. I bet if you weren't wearing a mask I could figure out who it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GFS at 5H looks different (again) at H84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: But does it give Philly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We just had 2 consecutive good runs of the euro yesterday. no....they wernt even the same storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS at 5H looks different (again) at H84. there seems to be less interference to shred the main s/w. well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look...normally I wouldn't do this, but these are desperate times. I'll allow it. The NAM at 84 hours H5.....not bad. Don't look at me like that. the 84 NAM is deadly accurate when it comes to screwing us. Remember the Dec 15 event when we all laughed it off. Now when it comes to helping us...thats a different story 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 the key is to keep that S/W as strong as we can before it gets shredded...the longer it holds...the better our odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: there seems to be less interference to shred the main s/w. well see Yep. Will need a little bit of ns interaction to raise heights ahead of it/pull it north but i like seeing less shredding interference so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS at 5H looks different (again) at H84. Maybe it relaxes in time but that feels like way too suppressive a flow across the northeast. In general it’s a nice setup but stepping back the ridge and trough in the east are both still centered a little south of ideal. That’s why the system keeps deamplifying as it tries to lift northeast. We either need the flow to relax or get the NS to phase and help amp it up enough to survive it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Yep. Will need a little bit of ns interaction to raise heights ahead of it/pull it north but i like seeing less shredding interference so far. i think it can get pulled north on its own...its how strong will it be as it gets pulled north towards us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Maybe it’s just me but on the 0z GFS looks remarkably similar to this weekends storm for nexts week storm. Closed H5 low in the south and northern stream hammer crashing the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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