Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene. But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern. And it looks like they will get it. There is a trade off though. That is not as good a HECS look. It opens the door to cold/dry. It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us. I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look. But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look. It just depends what your preference is. Exactly. We knew once the EPO popped where things would head....it was never a secret. Getting both PAC and ATL to tango is like the forbidden dance anymore. But hey, if it means a few nickel and dime clippers to keep a few posters off the ledge, then it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. It'll set up some good upslope at least for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene. But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern. And it looks like they will get it. There is a trade off though. That is not as good a HECS look. It opens the door to cold/dry. It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us. I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look. But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look. It just depends what your preference is. At this point, my preference is whatever will get MBY out of "epic disaster" for a snowfall year by the end of January. I'd consider that ~>=10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Could be setting up an epic RIC-PHL snow hole if we don't get next Tuesday between the southern storms and that Miller B. I didn't want to say it...but that's possible right now. I am curious where things go after. It looks to be setting up an EPO ridge -AO/NAO look. That is super rare. They also can be wildly variable. If the EPO ridge is far enough east its an EPIC pattern. But if it retrogrades too far west it can be a frustrating cold/dry warm/wet pattern. What is your gut on that look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: We need the cold. It's barely been below freezing here it seems. A cold day this winter has been like a high of 44 and a low of 33. I'm not expecting much, if anything, until we get real cold on this side of the CONUS. Yea, I’ll take a cold shot like some have described and hope we score as the airmass moderates. Right now we need a perfect setup to score with do little cold air. Even then, us lowlanders are not in great shape without a stretch of days with highs in the low to mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 EDIT: Ninja’d 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: It'll set up some good upslope at least for the mountains. yay for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Nice look on EPS. Let's reel in Tuesday and I'll be much more zen about what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps Looks good to me for day 6/7 lead time ya I'll hug that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. interesting that we're able to see with near perfect clarity the storms we definitely won't get from 20 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Could be setting up an epic RIC-PHL snow hole if we don't get next Tuesday between the southern storms and that Miller B. Idk why this happens but the snow hole is a real thing in every La Nina now- it wouldn’t surprise me at all (though PHL isn’t usually a part of it though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I love when an ensemble at range shows a deform signature in the mean precip over our area...there must be some really nice solutions in the mix to see that on a mean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene. But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern. And it looks like they will get it. There is a trade off though. That is not as good a HECS look. It opens the door to cold/dry. It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us. I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look. But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look. It just depends what your preference is. 100% in the cold and some snow. Not sitting waiting on a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: interesting that we're able to see with near perfect clarity the storms we definitely won't get from 20 days out... it's about pain management. The look could change. I don't have a crystal ball. But its been a very clear signal across all guidance there...and I know what history says about how that setup ends for us. I would rather just resign myself to it now...then torture myself over what is "likely" not definitely, not going to end well for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice look on EPS. Let's reel in Tuesday and I'll be much more zen about what happens after. take a look at the JMA. its due for a coup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: it's about pain management. The look could change. I don't have a crystal ball. But its been a very clear signal across all guidance there...and I know what history says about how that setup ends for us. I would rather just resign myself to it now...then torture myself over what is "likely" not definitely, not going to end well for us. thank you for telling us a Miller B is gonna screw us :). Thats actually my role..not yours 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Ji said: take a look at the JMA. its due for a coup I think it technically nailed 2/8/13 before any other guidance so 2023 might be the next coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Ji said: take a look at the JMA. its due for a coup It's not really a coup though other guidance has been hitting that also. We had 2 euro op runs...the ensembles this run, and there is "some" degree of support on the GEFS. This is not high probability yet but its not praying for some obscure model to score a coup either. Its a legit threat, and definitely the best one we have had since mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene. But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern. And it looks like they will get it. There is a trade off though. That is not as good a HECS look. It opens the door to cold/dry. It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us. I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look. But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look. It just depends what your preference is. But I'd argue, though...with the weak sauce cold that we haven't been able to build yet...how can we possibly have a good HECS pattern? Is it possible that we could, temporarily be a little stuck between needing a period of legit cold...yet getting that cold brings would bring more suppression before it relaxes? In other words...right now, we struggle for cold and need a phased out bomb...lessening a chance for big snow. Yet if we get legit cold we need to give ourselves a better airmass to work with...could end up giving us a hopefully temporary period of suppression? (I know my thoughts are a tad jumbled but I hope my point is clear) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: take a look at the JMA. its due for a coup Speaking of coups .... 5 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's not really a coup though other guidance has been hitting that also. We had 2 euro op runs...the ensembles this run, and there is "some" degree of support on the GEFS. This is not high probability yet but its not praying for some obscure model to score a coup either. Its a legit threat, and definitely the best one we have had since mid December. this will be ruled as banter but.. the only coup going on right now is in Congress 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. Feels like you oughta make a thread with just this post and have the mods pin it at the top, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But I'd argue, though...with the weak sauce cold that we haven't been able to build yet...how can we possibly have a good HECS pattern? Is it possible that we could, temporarily be a little stuck between needing a period of legit cold...yet getting that cold brings would bring more suppression before it relaxes? In other words...right now, we struggle for cold and need a phased out bomb...lessening a chance for big snow. Yet if we get legit cold we need to give ourselves a better airmass to work with...could end up giving us a hopefully temporary period of suppression? (I know my thoughts are a tad jumbled but I hope my point is clear) We didn't really give it much time though...the pac is just backing off now. Maybe after a week domestic cold would be enough. Or maybe not...I have been disappointed recently in what native airmasses look like absent cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The period coming up is rife with shortwaves and it really is just starting with the system Friday. If your are expecting a model or models to get a 5+ day forecast right with all that going on, you’re probably gonna be disappointed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 53 minutes ago, Ji said: take a look at the JMA. its due for a coup Getting lot of practice with those monthly 7' snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 53 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Speaking of coups .... Hope this isn't too much banter or sounding overly political (given the situation!)...but I hope you're doing OK over there right in DC. Lived near Capitol Hill for years before moving to where I'm at now in MD, so I can imagine how crazy it must be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Plenty of good hits in the EPS. Some flush hits, some miss south and some miss north. Good overall. Hopefully we can build on this. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Plenty of good hits in the EPS. Some flush hits, some miss south and some miss north. Good overall. Hopefully we can build on this. nice to actually see the EPS for once be better than the OP 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Plenty of good hits in the EPS. Some flush hits, some miss south and some miss north. Good overall. Hopefully we can build on this. Agreed. It's actually the best its looked IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. I'm ok with this... we are picking up our new puppy up your way in Hampstead the weekend of the 15th and I have been stressing over not being able to get there in case of snow. It can snow the 12th and after the 16th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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