January Long Range Disco Thread

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

 

You didn't do that correctly.

[IUsedToHateCold]

I’ll take a 100 mile jog NW and a flurry for the Saturday storm and be happy. 

[CAPE]

0z EPS for the next week threat-

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

im guessing the 0z euro has no support lol? Looks like pure Northern S/W for the next 16 days that will result in dry clippers or Millers. We could really use a split flow. Our that ridge being more west

As I posted a few days ago, this is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. maybe a nickel/dime event. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened NAO ridging which is what we want. Patience.

[WxUSAF]

Clippers, Miller As, Bs, or whatever. I just want it to snow. 

[JakkelWx]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As I posted a few days ago, this is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. maybe a nickel/dime event. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened NAO ridging which is what we want. Patience.

What are you basing this off of? OP GFS?

[The Porkchop Express]

[frd]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As I posted a few days ago, this is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. maybe a nickel/dime event. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened NAO ridging which is what we want. Patience.

Canadian 10 day temp mean looks meh......   I know Canada is cold by our standards, but if you are expecting those really cold temps to magically drop South that modeling shows, well we have a ways to go in my opinion, because  the 10 day mean does not support the look of " really Cold invasions of the past  into the Mid Atlantic".  Could be wrong of course,  but this look does not look great.  

 

 

 

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Happy Anniversary!

My profile pic is my car on 1/7, after 34 hours of snow leaving 31"

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

Canadian 10 day temp mean looks meh......   I know Canada is cold by our standards, but if you are expecting those really cold temps to magically drop South that modeling shows, well we have a ways to go in my opinion, because  the 10 day mean does not support the look of " really Cold invasions of the past  into the Mid Atlantic".  Could be wrong of course,  but this look does not look great.  

 

 

 

 

 

So, Justin Berks over hyping this too as usual. He's talking about the bay freezing lol. What a clown.

[CAPE]

Colder air is still on schedule for mid to late month. Have not seen this in ages.

[North Balti Zen]

42 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Today is a great day in so many ways

Nods.

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

What are you basing this off of? OP GFS?

Weeklies, analogs, LR ensembles,  telleconnections. Whoever would use an op GFS for LR forecasting probably would benefit from a new hobby. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, frd said:

Canadian 10 day temp mean looks meh......   I know Canada is cold by our standards, but if you are expecting those really cold temps to magically drop South that modeling shows, well we have a ways to go in my opinion, because  the 10 day mean does not support the look of " really Cold invasions of the past  into the Mid Atlantic".  Could be wrong of course,  but this look does not look great.  

 

 

 

 

 

We don't need insane vodka cold nor do we want that. Also as many have been stating, pattern doesn't start filtering in until closer to mid month which is after 10 days.

Eta: Most of those mean + anomalies occur in the next 6-7 days it appears

[aldie 22]

It was stated by HM and others that after the warming event it usually takes 20-30 days to have an effect if it does. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the warming wasn't 20-30 days ago. Anyway good luck hopefully something positive happens for the rest of the winter. 

[Ji]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

It was stated by HM and others that after the warming event it usually takes 20-30 days to have an effect if it does. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the warming wasn't 20-30 days ago. Anyway good luck hopefully something positive happens for the rest of the winter. 

we dont need to get a warming event to get snow

[aldie 22]

Also remember this was supposed to be a shitty nina winter and the only reason some fools have raised expectations was because of the warning event. So without that unreasonable shift in expectations shitty winter still on schedule. Hopefully something positive happens the rest of the winter....positive things already happening elsewhere. 

[dallen7908]

Certainly exciting to see that we have multiple chances of snow next week.  However, the EPS mean for most of us continues to be stuck at ~2".  The 10th and 90th percentile EPS  "goal posts"  for College Park, Frederick, and Camp David are 0-5", 0-3", and 0-4" of snow/sleet. 

While the NAO looks to remain negative for the foreseeable future it is "relaxing" towards neutral beginning mid-month. The AO continues negative with only a hint at moving towards neutral. The PNA pattern is solid positive (favorable for snow) through mid-month and then plummets.  Hopefully, the time period when it begins to decline will excite snow- and acronym (HA) lovers. 

[blizzardmeiser]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

we are 36 days into Met Winter and alot of people still havent seen their first inch with nothing in sight. Sad!

And it’s still better than last year! 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

And it’s still better than last year! 

For at least half this forum the ground truth is exactly the same. The difference is there is hope that won't continue.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

we dont need to get a warming event to get snow

That is true,  most events don't benefit us. However,  it can weaken and perturb the vortex, a plus,  but then the question becomes does it ruin or side track a pattern destined to be good ala 2018 possible, but sometimes they ( warmings )  do benefit the East. Already there is much hype on Accuu - Weather , CWG, private services. The official warming was Jan 5 th , so add 20 days = Jan 25 th to see the cold materialize as per HM.     

[frd]

10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Certainly exciting to see that we have multiple chances of snow next week.  However, the EPS mean for most of us continues to be stuck at ~2".  The 10th and 90th percentile EPS  "goal posts"  for College Park, Frederick, and Camp David are 0-5", 0-3", and 0-4" of snow/sleet. 

While the NAO looks to remain negative for the foreseeable future it is "relaxing" towards neutral beginning mid-month. The AO continues negative with only a hint at moving towards neutral. The PNA pattern is solid positive (favorable for snow) through mid-month and then plummets.  Hopefully, the time period when it begins to decline will excite snow- and acronym (HA) lovers. 

Accu Weather headline plus CWG may be incorrect to a degree, an official warming , yes, but a split not so sure.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/

Capital Weather Gang

The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of wild winter weather

A sudden stratospheric warming event has pushed the polar vortex off the North Pole, sending Arctic air on the move

 

See here : 

I am suggesting that we may never really get a split. Stratobserve was showing a very nice split , distinct and such, but now the vortex remains in one piece , seems to be a displacement event, but hey I am no expert. You can see here. 

 

 

240 hours 

 

 300 hours 

 

 

 

384 hours 

 

 

 

[blizzardmeiser]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For at least half this forum the ground truth is exactly the same. The difference is there is hope that won't continue.

True. But Ji is in the group where it’s much better. 

[frd]

 

 

35 day GEFS appears to indicate the vortex regains traction, some experts state any secondary  warming may unfold. 

 

Also HM states the split was interrupted .

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

That is true,  most events don't benefit us. However,  it can weaken and perturb the vortex, a plus,  but then the question becomes does it ruin or side track a pattern destined to be good ala 2018 possible, but sometimes they ( warmings )  do benefit the East. Already there is much hype on Accuu - Weather , CWG, private services. The official warming was Jan 5 th , so add 20 days = Jan 25 th to see the cold materialize as per HM.     

The GFS is the only model that goes out into the period where any arctic outbreak would occur for east of the Mississippi, so this is only basing off deterministic. That said, the large scale cold push into the Lower 48 is initiated with weak ridge-bridging over western Canada that brings the first round of significantly colder temps with lower heights over the eastern CONUS. There's a slight reshuffle between hrs 300-324, then a more significant bridging occurs towards the end of the run, leading to a more significant blast of arctic air with origins over Siberia as Cross-Polar flow occurs. There's sub 500dm heights on the deterministic over western Ontario into Manitoba at that point, so that's the real surge  and matches well with HM's Jan 20-25th peak of when the cold floods the eastern US. 

[MillvilleWx]

Here's the final result to the evolution posted above. It's just a bit cold......

[aldie 22]

[mappy]

you know you can just copy the tweet directly instead of a screenshot  

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

you know you can just copy the tweet directly instead of a screenshot  

I know but I like to see the big blown up graphics....it helps get the point across

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

the para is closer to the euro---except for the blue part.

Seems strange it would rain with that 1002 low to the north