BristowWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The GEFS looks pretty freakin cold at the end of the run. Incoming vodka it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GEFS are pretty adamant that the coldest anoms in the NH shift to NA in the LR. Not saying its good or bad for snow prospects but its impressive to see how quick the extreme cold fades across east Asia and forms in NA. Cross polar flow stole it right out from under them.... The Mongolian Ji must be lamenting the loss. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: The GEFS looks pretty freakin cold at the end of the run. Incoming vodka it appears Meh. Not sure that helps our snow chances. I'd rather have just cold enough than "vodka cold ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Meh. Not sure that helps our snow chances. I'd rather have just cold enough than "vodka cold ". It’s probably not vodka. Looks cold but not silly cold. It seems like we need almost everything right to get snow. I don’t remember it being this hard in the past but maybe I’m forgetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity. That's why I don't understand the hysteria in here. It was never progged to be before the middle of the month! (and historically it's always mid January on even in most of our best years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s probably not vodka. Looks cold but not silly cold. It seems like we need almost everything right to get snow. I don’t remember it being this hard in the past but maybe I’m forgetting. Seems like we need to check the box on 10 things for us to snow. And if we are missing 1 of those items then it's no snow for you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Seems like we need to check the box on 10 things for us to snow. And if we are missing 1 of those items then it's no snow for you lol. -NAO but not too negative cold but not too cold PNA ridge precisely located over a two block radius of Boise, ID 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS through Day 14 says patience will be needed... That's going in the wrong direction. Patience is an understatement for some, even I am getting perturbed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Ed was on this first, now Accu- weather and others going crazy. Time will tell. Ed O'Toole @chionomaniac So things have happened quicker than I expected. Was also expecting minimal westerly flush down but this is greater than expected. When this is complete I expect another trop blocking response. Keeping an eye on possible split to reinforce this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: That's going in the wrong direction. Patience is an understatement for some, even I am getting perturbed. I am trying to be positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 WB 6 day EPS at 18Z v 12Z. About the same to my non expert eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 48 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The GEFS looks pretty freakin cold at the end of the run. Incoming vodka it appears Yeah I'm wondering if we actually enter a clipper pattern (after years without one) under the block/ridge for a bit with some overunning events ejecting out of the SW undercutting the ridge off the W Coast as the blocking relaxes. We've had those patterns before and I have a suspicion we may ne headed that route when the cold finally begins to enter the US after the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS through Day 14 says patience will be needed...Are you kidding me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 LOL at placing hopes on snowfall maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Are you kidding me . No he will post the real one soon..Gotcha!.....Will? Anyone? Bueller? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL at placing hopes on snowfall maps I wish snow maps would be only posted in the digital snowfall thread, especially this far out from any threats. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No he will post the real one soon..Gotcha!.....Will? Anyone? Bueller? Mean snow maps give me a sense if the pattern has any potential, no more, no less. Truthfully, I have learned more than five days out don’t look at anything but pattern. Everyone in here is smart enough to know that you should not take one run of any model and take it as gospel. Here, enjoy the 12Z EURO for another 4 hours... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yay another fukkin snow map! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 @psuhoffman Psu Interestig comments by Anthony here wondering what to make of it. If forcing shifts later in the month of January especially with the latest forecast that show cold over the Eastern United States do you care to elaborate on what your feelings are regarding the progression of forcing in the West Pac. @antmasiello Replying to @webberweather I've been thinking about preseason/years like 88-89 showing up. Then I see the pattern ahead, etc. & tropical forcing reorganizing to Maritimes for Feb. You have to wonder if we see a rapid flip to very cold in W-C US. This would be a lot easier if polar state was more 1980s like 8:44 AM · Jan 5, 2021·Twitter for Android 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yay another fukkin snow map! I'm telling ya those are bad for mental health...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps for the weekend system has the MC Hammer sw that rotates around the 50/50 much weaker and further north at 84 hr . Something to watch for any further trending at 0z and 6z tomorrow. Are you and I the only ones who think this has a shot? The changes on the gfs were significant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Are you and I the only ones who think this has a shot? The changes on the gfs were significant It's not out of the realm of possibility that we squeak out a quick cartopper from the weekend event. I would put the odds at 1 in 5 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 For anybody that thinks looking at a snow map from the gfs has any merit consider this ... on the 15th the gfs has rain in western Pa and ne Ohio with thickness under 528 and 850’s around -10 in January. Sign on the dotted line if you think that bullshit is happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Probably not.. plenty of people who remain silent lol. Honestly I think DC and esp S.Md ,eastern shore definitely still in play . Even in mby there's a sliver of hope. Timing has slowed. It's a early Sat system on much guidance. We need positive changes to continue tomorrow though . We need that southern energy to slow down a little, amp a little more, get the whirlpool in the ne to lift out just a tad and the hammer to keep weakening. Get those, I know it’s a lot, and this could come up. You can see it wants to but when it hits that confluence it just goes. It also weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Wait- this isn't a great look? I see bo... 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yay another fukkin snow map! hush you, don’t ruin my digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: I see bo... hush you, don’t ruin my digital snow. I see three of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Whatever happens, if this weekend’s ultimate solution plays out at 500 as it’s being modeled now, it’ll be a perfect of example of the amazing ability of weather models to accurately represent atmospheric physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 NAM doesn’t get precip to the VA/NC border (outside of extreme SW VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I thought the NAM actually looked promising early on. ULL further north, less confluence and appeared to be a north shift. Then it just gets its face shoved in the sand by the vort coming down from the north. Cant wait until we can extrapolate for the 1/11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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