yoda Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Since other thread was nearing 2500 posts, new thread been give. 12z EURO was a nice run to see... and with JMA onboard and GFS close by with its h5 progression... could we be talking about some snow early next week for the WxUSAF storm? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Only 7 days away. What could go wrong with this setup? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The good news is this is beyond the range of 18z Euro so we have a full 12 hours to enjoy it. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro does indeed nuke us next week but there is no real cold air within 100s of miles, gonna be dicey if it plays out like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Thread title is the kiss of death. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro does indeed nuke us next week but there is no real cold air within 100s of miles, gonna be dicey if it plays out like that. Define "real cold air" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Define "real cold air" Vodka? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Define "real cold air" At the peak of the storm (00z Wed) you'd have to go to like I81 or State College to find temps at or below 32 while it's in the mid 30s in immediate DC metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Work forced me to miss the Euro run. But oh man. Thing is the GFS was actually pretty close to the same deal. Just missed by a little bit. Gonna be a fun week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: At the peak of the storm (00z Wed) you'd have to go to like I81 or State College to find temps at or below 32 while it's in the mid 30s in immediate DC metro. Too early to worry about that imo. Euro probably a bit over phased. Man is that a sweet kink in the H5 pattern on euro and JMA. I’d take this everyday over suppressed weak waves 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Too early to worry about that imo. Euro probably a bit over phased. Man is that a sweet kink in the H5 pattern on euro and JMA. I’d take this everyday over suppressed weak waves I wouldn't say I'm worried, I'm happy to see a modeled storm that doesn't miss us. I'm just being cautious because with those temps it's better not to go in with huge expectations (at least where I live in urban heat island hell). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I wouldn't say I'm worried, I'm happy to see a modeled storm that doesn't miss us. I'm just being cautious because with those temps it's better not to go in with huge expectations (at least where I live in urban heat island hell). This far out - thermals are the least concern. I think we should all be looking at the H5 pattern and how it matches or doesn't match with the surface result. Inside of 120 we can start sweating thermals. Not saying we won't have temp issues - but remember - the best storms usually do have their share of mixing and thermal problems. We'll see. Too early for now. 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Haven’t dug into the individual members but certainly a signal on this panel for a coastal. Get that MSLP deeper and more west but since this is 7 days out, this is a good signal. and this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 WRT to 12z EPS, the mean/individual members are not as wound up as the OP. It would argue all snow for everyone north of St. Mary's city. Hope we see the GFS start to catch on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That's a nice signal on the 12z EPS, carrying over from 0z EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I dont think anyone mentioned it in the other thread. But the UKIE looks good at 144. Already starting to phase. Would have been a nice storm IMO. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I dont think anyone mentioned it in the other thread. But the UKIE looks good at 144. Already starting to phase. Would have been a nice storm IMO. But Ji said it’s never been right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Y'all know I hate snow maps but this captures that window pretty well. There is a signal there. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I mean.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 One more pic! Impressive how much the EPS looks like the op at H5. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I see coastal storms. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: WRT to 12z EPS, the mean/individual members are not as wound up as the OP. It would argue all snow for everyone north of St. Mary's city. Hope we see the GFS start to catch on. common man you know the EPS mean wil never be as wound up as the OP especially that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Wes isn't enthused by the 12z OP euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 48 minutes ago, nj2va said: Haven’t dug into the individual members but certainly a signal on this panel for a coastal. Get that MSLP deeper and more west but since this is 7 days out, this is a good signal. and this one Looks good. Would love to see the individual members for 12z ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Looks good. Would love to see the individual members for 12z ens About 35 are whiffs for early next week. The other 15 are acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: About 35 are whiffs for early next week. The other 15 are acceptable. Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though I think it’s fairly supported at this range but there’s still a lot of spread because we are a week out. It does seem to be on the extreme edge of the solutions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wes isn't enthused by the 12z OP euro. Verbatim? Me neither. Its (not) happening! tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range. This looks VERY supportive. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range. This looks VERY supportive. Idk but this seems like 2018 to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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