PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Are you kidding me MRX? What in the world..... “For this forecast, have continued to stick closer to the GEFs and SREF plumes mean numbers. I mean... has anyone ever took the SREF serious? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: Are you kidding me MRX? What in the world..... “For this forecast, have continued to stick closer to the GEFs and SREF plumes mean numbers, . Yeah, I might be wrong here but isn't the GFS sorta crappy with dynamic driven systems like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah, I might be wrong here but isn't the GFS sorta crappy with dynamic driven systems like this?I don’t know what they are doing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Now they issue a WWA for the valley . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 MRX does their typical play it conservative thing. Not sure that is a good idea in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 This just popped on my phone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Dsty2001 said: MRX does their typical play it conservative thing. Not sure that is a good idea in this situation Not for TRI! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 351 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 TNZ016-017-039-040-042-044-046-070-071-073-VAZ008-080500- /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0001.210108T0600Z-210109T0000Z/ Hawkins-Sullivan-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Washington-Northwest Carter-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- North Sevier- Including the cities of Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 351 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with increased amounts possible in the higher elevations. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/mrx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: This just popped on my phone Beat me to it, Dsty2001! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Pretty long disco by MRX this PM, out now, prefaced by: " I`ll start this discussion off with the disclaimer that even though snowfall is only about 12-24 hours away, there is still low confidence in this forecast due to the WIDE range of model solutions. There are several things to take into consideration with this forecast, and anyone of them could cause the forecast to bust." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Thinking out loud here.... didn’t we have a similar setup several years ago with a rain/snow/rain ULL predictions but north of 40, downsloping and a NE surface wind caused a CAD in the valley up against the Cumberland Plateau that kept most of it snow? Seems like I ended up with 8” in N Knox Co. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 MRX starting to bite a bit. Now that we are inside 12hrs haha very nice consensus finally forming on our “big 3” meso models. Hrrr is ticking their way each run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 About to get this: probably too dry at the lower levels though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Mustve had some heavy virga over me earlier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 About to get this: probably too dry at the lower levels though Right on the edge of higher returns so far it's virga, but it seems to might be having an impact on temp though that could also be the setting sun. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Right on the edge of higher returns so far it's virga, but it seems to might be having an impact on temp though that could also be the setting sun. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Are you concerned on the plateau?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I am valley about 8 miles or so from the eastern escarpment of the plateau. I can see the plateau across Watt Bar where I live. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Definitely dry air to overcome. No precip but heavy virga. I know it sounds strange but it just feels colder under virga in the winter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Down to 39 here. Dew point of 31. We did not hit our projected high today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Definitely dry air to overcome. No precip but heavy virga. I know it sounds strange but it just feels colder under virga in the winter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Wouldn’t be surprised to have flurries above 3k feet in that band. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wait for it. Virga, heavy at times!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 The wind really did pick up as that band came through, but no precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Virga this early is a good thing though cause it will help cool the atmosphere, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 A friend of mine in Columbia TN reports half-dollar flakage.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wouldn’t be surprised to have flurries above 3k feet in that band. Kind of wished I had driven up to Wartburg to look at Frozen Head. I bet you are right and I would have seen some snow at the very tops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Who’s going to start the nowcast thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: A friend of mine in Columbia TN reports half-dollar flakage. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Just getting ready to post that. Seems like several areas in West TN and western middle have changed over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Virga this early is a good thing though cause it will help cool the atmosphere, correct? I dropped my temp by a couple of degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Reb said: Who’s going to start the nowcast thread? I'll go for it since i started this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR is still depicting a liquid valley throughout most of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Reb said: HRRR is still depicting a liquid valley throughout most of the event RAP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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