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January 7 - 8 ULL potential


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3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

MRX have pulled the SPS. Might replace it with another SPS, or advisory or combination of the 2 coming this afternoon.

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If they go by 12z Euro they'll definitely put out wwas and wsw. . They may hold off and watch a couple more SR mods first. Tough when there's so much variance with the mods at such close range.

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Just now, John1122 said:

Poor MRX, the models still can't agree, say downsloping could be an issue for eastern areas, the plateau and SWVA cold enough for snow but not all models give precip, the central valley borderline for snow or rain. This is one of the most complicated forecasts you can have. I don't envy any position they take regarding winter products.

Without a doubt one of the hardest setups to have any confidence, especially when going public.

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I guess as far as I see it it's safer to issue and express that there is still a possibility it doesn't come to fruition but issue to prepare the public. Say even 4 or 5 inches of heavy wet snow occur there are going to be power outages. You need to prepare people for the possibility. The Christmas Eve storm there were folks without power in knox county and elsewhere for 2 and 3 days. Which meant people not prepared with backup sources of heat.

 

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Just now, ShawnEastTN said:

I guess as far as I see it it's safer to issue and express that there is still a possibility it doesn't come to fruition but issue to prepare the public. Say even 4 or 5 inches of heavy wet snow occur there are going to be power outages. You need to prepare people for the possibility. The Christmas Eve storm there were folks without power in knox county and elsewhere for 2 and 3 days.

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I know in general, people expect things to be cut and dry.  That's not the case with marginal temperature setups and ULL's involved.  I'm with you regarding discussing possibilities and would think it's a good thing to do.   

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15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Wondering with NNE surface winds and SE upper level winds wouldn’t create a little more lift in the valley. Almost like a inverted boundary look.


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Seems like it’s all in the flow. 
 

watch this GIF. You can quickly see the initial dry slot as I assume mountains etc soak up a lot of moisture.  Then our flow halts and pivots and you see an explosion of precip in NE TN and the valley. 
 

E253238F-04B5-400D-8954-EB8C2DD848C8.gif.7bacf1344ab9ad90bcdbc5cb2cd7eb8c.gif

 

you can see the initial dry slot I assume is caused by just the initial flow and mountains blocking a lot of moisture. Atleast I know for Unicoi this flow often can lead to a lack of precip. 

4E219906-2DF0-4C8E-B31C-313EB2B8D8A9.jpeg.e495f473a652f948c9774b19991ff3b4.jpeg
 

then as we see the pivot we see that explosion into the valley and across NE TN. And if this happens we could be talking abt some very nice rates and a very slow moving band. Easy 2” an hour in places.

DFE32DC4-9096-43BF-BD35-5682B9BA8234.jpeg.f9f46ebbc9842dd312134e9686511fa0.jpeg

 

so it’s almost like a two step process. Step one will actually take a while. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of weak precip all around us all through the evening and tonight but that’s expected! The real show is early tomorrow morning when we get that veering flow.

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7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not sure if it will make a big difference, but there's been a massive bust on high temps today. Most forecasts had the area in the mid to upper 40s. It's around 10 degrees cooler.

Yep, for sure John. Brisk NE wind as well. Just hope there'll be heavy precip rates as in the Feb. 05 one. Forecasts busted big time then here as originally under an inch then as was already underway, 1-3", then ws warning basically after the fact. Downsloping, too warm etc...reasoning.

       Without low dps and heavy rates, early call would've worked. At least, this time we're colder.

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We live in Greene County close to the foot of the mountains and my dad called and I was telling him to keep an eye out on the weather for tonight or tomorrow and he said he pulled it up on his phone and it's showing the lows only about 36 or 37 and there's no winter weather advisories. And proceeds to tell me he's planning on driving to Telford tomorrow to visit his sister mid-morning. 

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12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today.

I'm in Oak Ridge, and I can confirm that temperature. It's definitely cooler than what was forecasted. I saw a little over an inch for the Christmas Eve Storm. I'm hoping that I'll see more than that this go around.

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45 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today.

Yeah, was colder than news stations were showing at my house this morning. My weather station was at a frosty 24 in Knox. Ground should be pretty cold with little sun today as well. 

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Here in the Chattanooga area temps have been holding steady in the upper 30's. We're in Ooltewah and have been at 38* and holding steady for 3 hours. Forecast high today is 47*. I guess that can still happen if the warm nose comes in like it normally does in our area. Hopefully the temps can hold in the upper 30's and drop when the precip starts. I'm not expecting anything here but I've seen before in these setups with marginal temps if we can get just enough cold air and heavy precip it can pull a surprise and actually dump some nice heavy, wet snow. Something to keep our eye on around here. I'll be sick if we end up with rain and a little mix and 15 miles up I75 in Cleveland they pick up 3 or 4 inches. Either way, good luck to everyone that's wanting snow.

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