Daniel Boone Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: MRX have pulled the SPS. Might replace it with another SPS, or advisory or combination of the 2 coming this afternoon. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk If they go by 12z Euro they'll definitely put out wwas and wsw. . They may hold off and watch a couple more SR mods first. Tough when there's so much variance with the mods at such close range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, John1122 said: Poor MRX, the models still can't agree, say downsloping could be an issue for eastern areas, the plateau and SWVA cold enough for snow but not all models give precip, the central valley borderline for snow or rain. This is one of the most complicated forecasts you can have. I don't envy any position they take regarding winter products. Without a doubt one of the hardest setups to have any confidence, especially when going public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I guess as far as I see it it's safer to issue and express that there is still a possibility it doesn't come to fruition but issue to prepare the public. Say even 4 or 5 inches of heavy wet snow occur there are going to be power outages. You need to prepare people for the possibility. The Christmas Eve storm there were folks without power in knox county and elsewhere for 2 and 3 days. Which meant people not prepared with backup sources of heat. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: I guess as far as I see it it's safer to issue and express that there is still a possibility it doesn't come to fruition but issue to prepare the public. Say even 4 or 5 inches of heavy wet snow occur there are going to be power outages. You need to prepare people for the possibility. The Christmas Eve storm there were folks without power in knox county and elsewhere for 2 and 3 days. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I know in general, people expect things to be cut and dry. That's not the case with marginal temperature setups and ULL's involved. I'm with you regarding discussing possibilities and would think it's a good thing to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hrrr is trending better and better now that we are getting into its range. Falling in line with others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Someone is going to see biscuit sized flakes under this. Look at that vertical motion from 800mb to 400mb 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wondering with NNE surface winds and SE upper level winds wouldn’t create a little more lift in the valley. Almost like a inverted boundary look. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Not sure if it will make a big difference, but there's been a massive bust on high temps today. Most forecasts had the area in the mid to upper 40s. It's around 10 degrees cooler. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I've noticed that as well. Highest I've gotten today is 39, dewpoint still staying around 29/30.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Was wondering what effect that will have- hasn't gotten above freezing here all day either, so will that help the totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wondering with NNE surface winds and SE upper level winds wouldn’t create a little more lift in the valley. Almost like a inverted boundary look. . Seems like it’s all in the flow. watch this GIF. You can quickly see the initial dry slot as I assume mountains etc soak up a lot of moisture. Then our flow halts and pivots and you see an explosion of precip in NE TN and the valley. you can see the initial dry slot I assume is caused by just the initial flow and mountains blocking a lot of moisture. Atleast I know for Unicoi this flow often can lead to a lack of precip. then as we see the pivot we see that explosion into the valley and across NE TN. And if this happens we could be talking abt some very nice rates and a very slow moving band. Easy 2” an hour in places. so it’s almost like a two step process. Step one will actually take a while. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of weak precip all around us all through the evening and tonight but that’s expected! The real show is early tomorrow morning when we get that veering flow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not sure if it will make a big difference, but there's been a massive bust on high temps today. Most forecasts had the area in the mid to upper 40s. It's around 10 degrees cooler. Yep, for sure John. Brisk NE wind as well. Just hope there'll be heavy precip rates as in the Feb. 05 one. Forecasts busted big time then here as originally under an inch then as was already underway, 1-3", then ws warning basically after the fact. Downsloping, too warm etc...reasoning. Without low dps and heavy rates, early call would've worked. At least, this time we're colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: Was wondering what effect that will have- hasn't gotten above freezing here all day either, so will that help the totals? It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 We live in Greene County close to the foot of the mountains and my dad called and I was telling him to keep an eye out on the weather for tonight or tomorrow and he said he pulled it up on his phone and it's showing the lows only about 36 or 37 and there's no winter weather advisories. And proceeds to tell me he's planning on driving to Telford tomorrow to visit his sister mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today. I'm in Oak Ridge, and I can confirm that temperature. It's definitely cooler than what was forecasted. I saw a little over an inch for the Christmas Eve Storm. I'm hoping that I'll see more than that this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 It's 40 here. It was supposed to be 45 or 46. Dew Point of 30. Hoping we get something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 You can already see some evaporartive cooling on Signal Mountain: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I feel like this is a reoccurring theme this winter for the temperatures to be lower than forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Starting to see a pivot axis on radar: If that is right and if it continues to move that way (big ifs, not sure if I'm reading it right), a lot of E TN should be ok, provided we get the precip. to fall and fall as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Cool little meso feature in N Central MS, headed towards Starkville: Man, I hope that whole slug of precip. holds together and runs right up the eastern valley (and the plateau of course,lol) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 MPing has a snow report near Huntsville: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Latest NAM takes that area of precip over MS right up the eastern valley: Still snowing nicely over NE TN as of this frame: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 45 minutes ago, John1122 said: It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today. Yeah, was colder than news stations were showing at my house this morning. My weather station was at a frosty 24 in Knox. Ground should be pretty cold with little sun today as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Here in the Chattanooga area temps have been holding steady in the upper 30's. We're in Ooltewah and have been at 38* and holding steady for 3 hours. Forecast high today is 47*. I guess that can still happen if the warm nose comes in like it normally does in our area. Hopefully the temps can hold in the upper 30's and drop when the precip starts. I'm not expecting anything here but I've seen before in these setups with marginal temps if we can get just enough cold air and heavy precip it can pull a surprise and actually dump some nice heavy, wet snow. Something to keep our eye on around here. I'll be sick if we end up with rain and a little mix and 15 miles up I75 in Cleveland they pick up 3 or 4 inches. Either way, good luck to everyone that's wanting snow. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Some mixed precip starting to make it as low as 1400 feet in N MS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 And last but not least, there's some kind of little boundary moving towards me on the plateau: Will be interested to see what it looks like when it moves through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 My old stomping grounds literally! That is right where our family farm is. Too bad the highest hills in that area are just barely over 500 ft. Edit: Talking about the radar image from NE MS. Not the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 MPing has a snow report near Huntsville: Mping as far south as southwest Birmingham suburbs of mixed precip. Also looks like around Jackson TN rain snow mix reported.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12km and 3km are rocking for us tonight! Hrrr leaping and bounding toward them as well. Euro has been showing this for days now. Time to get a little bit excited I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The kid in me wants to see a HEAVY WET snow. They are always beautiful and a rare thing indeed. But as an insurance guy...... I almost hope this isn't in the 5+ range....... Lots of trees would be coming down if we hit the 6-8" range and claims would be a nightmare! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now