Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, John1122 said: Tough call for MRX with narrow window between heavy snow or nothing. The graphic reflects it pretty well saying basically zero to several inches possible. Could be anything from nothing, to lollipops, do a full fledged winter storm. Tough call. Glad I don't have to make it!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The GFS is going to score an all time win or have a monster bust. It's going down with a snowless ship. Yet it's upgrade is all in on a monster storm. The Canadian is in the middle and consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 0z GFS-Para looked very much like the 18z Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GFSv16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Haven't been watching today as closely as others, has the system trended north or south? Lots of times bowling ball lows tend to jog north at the last minute. Just seems like right now modeling is generally spitting out all kinds of solutions in the general vicinity of western NC, M TN, and E TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Haven't been watching today as closely as others, has the system trended north or south? Lots of times bowling ball lows tend to jog north at the last minute. Just seems like right now modeling is generally spitting out all kinds of solutions in the general vicinity of western NC, M TN, and E TN. Slightly south and east vs yesterday. But I think it is just model bounce due to the nature of the system being much more unpredictable than a normal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Canadian. Probably been the most consistent model but doesn't necessarily mean it's right by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Great Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The 06z NAM even gets Memphis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I’ve pretty much given up hope here as virtually all modeling has shifted south the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I've kept my hopes muted with this one lol. Big boom or bust potential with this one for me..1°-2° will be a world of difference. We will find out around midnight if the changeover begins to occur..0"-6" here we come lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Compton, AR (NW AR) reporting 4.3" now..only model that got that right...3k NAM. Time to watch the actual vs ops out west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Looks pretty on NT Microphysics GOES 16 imagery: I am a fan of the low level NE flow evident over WV and KY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Heavy frost this AM, but didn't feel so cold when I went out this AM. Sure enough, some WAA here, near the edge of the plateau: But just a mile up the road: an 8 degree difference between the edge of the plateau (I'm probably a mile or two from the edge) and another mile onto the plateau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks pretty on NT Microphysics GOES 16 imagery: I am a fan of the low level NE flow evident over WV and KY It’s always good to have a NE flow when your looking for snow! At least it seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 6z Euro: How it gets there: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z Euro: How it gets there: Looks very similar to 3km NAM. Concerned about the hrrr coming in so snowless for East TN but it’s prone to random runs like that. I think at 12z this morning we should get better model agreement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 There's a "pivot zone" that has been showing up on models. Some put it over NE TN (Euro, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW to an extent), some put it over the central plateau (GFS para), some put it over the Knox - Hamblen area (NAM 12km, WRF-ARW2 to an extent), some have it over NW NC (RAP). I don't know exactly how to describe it, but where ever that occurs, that's the area that gets hit the hardest. Using the Euro to show this, just because it was easier to make and mark up gifs with it: Here is the 500mb circulation, notice a lil lobe of vorticity kinda sort schamybe does the fujiwara dance with the main lobe: That might be helping pull some dynamics up the eastern valley to intersect with deepish moisture: Even at 850mb there is a little bit of vorticity that wobbles on the run over the eastern valley: So you get this: 850 flow turns Northerly too, so Johnson City/ Elizabethton, Erwin...and... dare I say it...Flag Pond would probably keep snowing with upslope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 I'll also add that I think the topography of the eastern valley could help that, as long as it ends up developing somewhere in the valley: Imagine getting a little bit of dynamics helped by anticyclonic flow, running up the valley 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: There's a "pivot zone" that has been showing up on models. Some put it over NE TN (Euro, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW to an extent), some put it over the central plateau (GFS para), some put it over the Knox - Hamblen area (NAM 12km, WRF-ARW2 to an extent), some have it over NW NC (RAP). I don't know exactly how to describe it, but where ever that occurs, that's the area that gets hit the hardest. Using the Euro to show this, just because it was easier to make and mark up gifs with it: Here is the 500mb circulation, notice a lil lobe of vorticity kinda sort schamybe does the fujiwara dance with the main lobe: That might be helping pull some dynamics up the eastern valley to intersect with deepish moisture: Even at 850mb there is a little bit of vorticity that wobbles on the run over the eastern valley: So you get this: 850 flow turns Northerly too, so Johnson City/ Elizabethton, Erwin...and... dare I say it...Flag Pond would probably keep snowing with upslope. Yeah the 3km 06z is a beautiful example of this. Looks like a bowling ball of heavy precip just rotating over portions of Eastern and NE TN. Most models do have that and the EURO has consistently shown it. hopefully we can get the hrrr back on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: hopefully we can get the hrrr back on board Speaking of the HRRR, 12z kinda had it over Unicoi county: Looks like it jumped back a bit to the NW from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Speaking of the HRRR, 12z kinda had it over Unicoi county: Looks like it jumped back a bit to the NW from 6z Yep Hrrr stepped toward other models. It’s still it’s long range too. Usually not reliable until 12-14hrs out or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 A solid NAMing is coming for ETN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12z 12km nam looks much better. coming in line with its high res counter part. 12km actually buries the Eastern Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Reb said: A solid NAMing is coming for ETN Actually you're right. It drops 9 on TYS. Def a jump up for the TYS to TRI crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Low res 12z NAM snow totals. ........ a couple of posts down. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3k 12z NAM far less enthused for northeast TN outside the mountains, but hits the Knoxville area and points WSW to just northwest of Chattanooga hard with a widespread area of 5-7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 so the HRRR ticked north which its not even in its wheelhouse yet. 12km NAM came in really bullish and the 3km is now much less bullish haha I feel like all this flipping around is just indicative of the mesoscale nature of this one. We may never get a uniform solution across models until right at game time tonight. It really feels like we are tracking individual supercells on the long range hrrr and 3km nam with how much they are jumping haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 That's 18z yesterday @tnweathernut It looked waaayyy too good for my area, so I had to do a double take, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Maybe the 3km is seeing some convection that cuts off moisture supply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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