Icy Hot Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 With no cold air source, I am concerned this may be just cold rain for the vast majority of us below 2000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: RGEM seems to agree and like MRX's discussion....unless you are in Sullivan county, that is Looks like it favors Dan too Looks like the 12z. I think 18z lost its mojo, except for the mountains and western NC. Biggest lollipops are in Grundy County, Scott and Campbell Counties. Outside of the mountains there's a bunch of less than 1/2" amounts scattered across Tennessee It does show a couple of inches in Chattanooga, so there's that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looking at the animation, it appears the explosive precip never makes it back over the mountains like on previous model runs. Starts in western NC and pivots there before pulling away to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 RGEM 18z Just standard model waffling with this type of system run to run. A few miles track move had massive consequences on the outcome of the run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realdeal2414 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: That gif was too low a resolution, BLERG: I am right smack in the middle of Sullivan county..crazy the models all over the place on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Crapola, sorry y'all, I pulled the 12z RGEM. Thanks for the actual one John! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, realdeal2414 said: I am right smack in the middle of Sullivan county..crazy the models all over the place on this one. Sorry I pulled the wrong run. John has the most recent one above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Here's the latest RGEM animation to go with John's totals: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 JKL put out a SPS saying 1-2 inches in their Tennessee and Virginia border counties possible. If I can get 2 inches I'll be very happy. Hoping for more but skittish due to being in or near the non-Smokies bullseye so often. Heck, my area and Scott County are the only areas over an inch on the hi-res 18z GFS. Christmas worked, if this one does it will begin to restore faith in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Para GFS offers yet another solution on model roulette: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looks like the 21z RAP will be nice to Eastern areas from Knoxville northeast. It's about 75% finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 It closes off an isobar in the NC foothills, perhaps indicative of a leeside mesolow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 It's not even finished snowing yet over NE TN, but figured this would do for us lustful snow hounds: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Starting to like this a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I still can't pull the trigger on a big Dog for my area as the RGEM has me a bit concerned as it has been money this season here. However, big Dog trigger pulled for Smokies. This system may do something akin to the Feb. 15 2005 storm. Temps were marginal and there was a sharp cutoff on the nnw quadrant. Lee County ranged from a trace northern section (Keokee) to 5 Jonesville to 8 -10" just south of there across the southern half of County bordering Tenn. to Stickleyville bordering Scott county, va. I'm sure John can detail that one. Interesting one 4 sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 For what its worth the 3km and RAP are super close together. Just need the RGEM to hop on board and we have the trifecta of high res models on our side. The RGEM isn't my favorite model. But it does do well at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z Euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Also of note is that the storm is now within the HRRR range in 18/0/6/12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 36 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Holy moly I got NAM'd nicely on that 18z run! 10 inches with a Cobb of 7! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I dont typically make these posts but when is the timing of this supposed to start? Wife and her sis is in Gatlinburg till Friday and don't want them getting stuck if it comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said: I dont typically make these posts but when is the timing of this supposed to start? Wife and her sis is in Gatlinburg till Friday and don't want them getting stuck if it comes to fruition Overnight Thursday into Friday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: I dont typically make these posts but when is the timing of this supposed to start? Wife and her sis is in Gatlinburg till Friday and don't want them getting stuck if it comes to fruition 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Stovepipe said: God I wish they had some chains hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 0z NAM is pretty similar to the 18z RGEM. At this point models are almost useless to watch run to run. Small track wobbles will happen each run and each time someone will get more or less vs the prior run. General confidence that it will snow is high at elevation, moderate in the eastern valley and low moderate in the mid valley towards Nashville. How much and exactly where will be purely nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3k 0z NAM is generous to many in northeast TN and still gives hope for some around Chattanooga and other parts of southern TN.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 NAM looked much better for middle tennessee that run. It's almost tracking nowcast time, at least we got something to monitor tomorrow evening through friday. Good luck folks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Not sure if you all have seen it, but MRX has released some graphics on FB just now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Not sure if you all have seen it, but MRX has released some graphics on FB just now.They look identical to the euro imo. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Tough call for MRX with narrow window between heavy snow or nothing. The graphic reflects it pretty well saying basically zero to several inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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