tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Riding the Rap...maybe my possible big dog bold prediction trigger will be pulled shortly, lol Just don't start the sentence by telling everyone you know MathMet says a foot is coming.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, John1122 said: This one will either end power for some or go down as a moderate to large bust. Maybe even both. That is the nature of ULL snows and their path will likely not be correctly modeled even going off short term now cast models like the HRRR and RAP for more than a few hours in advance. In this scenario bet on elevations but expect your bet to possibly bust wildly even in valley floors. My thoughts exactly.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 National Weather Service MRX is still not impressed. Only saying 50% of snow for KTRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 National Weather Service MRX is still not impressed. Only saying 50% of snow for KTRI.They were never impressed with Dec 24th until Knoxville had 4-6” on the ground . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 This just popped up on my AccuWeather app....for Kingsport 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z Euro: Middle Tennessee is getting the shaft so far this winter. All the good snow has been east and that trend looks to continue. EDIT: for the Nashville north area anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: This one will either end power for some or go down as a moderate to large bust. Maybe even both. That is the nature of ULL snows and their path will likely not be correctly modeled even going off short term now cast models like the HRRR and RAP for more than a few hours in advance. In this scenario bet on elevations but expect your bet to possibly bust wildly even in valley floors. ULL driven events like this are the absolute worst type of winter event. haha this thing will be "trending" one way or the other up to the last minute most likely. I have to say I'm pretty optimistic with 12km nam, RGEM, RAP and the 3km all showing enhacned banding features. just a matter of where they end up. Its possible a band of 2" hr rates swings through most of NE TN. and wherever it pivots could get slammed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 ULL driven events like this are the absolute worst type of winter event. haha this thing will be "trending" one way or the other up to the last minute most likely. I have to say I'm pretty optimistic with 12km nam, RGEM, RAP and the 3km all showing enhacned banding features. just a matter of where they end up. Its possible a band of 2" hr rates swings through most of NE TN. and wherever it pivots could get slammed. I’ve always felt like ULL usually over perform because the mods don’t handle dynamic cooling well. Then again sometimes they can wrap up dry air and destroy itself. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’ve always felt like ULL usually over perform because the mods don’t handle dynamic cooling well. Then again sometimes they can wrap up dry air and destroy itself. . i feel like you are right. Mostly because globals often struggle with the mesoscale nature of convection. And that explains why the GFS family struggles and the EURO does a tad better. EURO imo has always been the better ULL model. And speaking of. 12z euro is also starting to pick up an enhanced band of convection. although not as expansive north as high res models. Nice to see EURO still delivering significant snowfall to the Eastern areas and backing up the high res amounts. This to me validates those beefier high res runs of the RAP and 12km NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, Olhausen said: Middle Tennessee is getting the shaft so far this winter. Seems like y'all always get missed. Y'all deserve a Miller B that hammers you and warm noses us. (I hate Miller Bs, lol). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Speaking of my own backyard (and probably screwing myself in the bargain), I am just SW of the 3000' Frozen Head mts and have noticed here that we can sometimes squeeze out some extra precip if it is coming in from the SSW (up the valley and then up the plateau, and then up the higher mts). Some of the hi res models have been showing something that looks like that. Not sure if it is some synoptic/ mesoscale feature or the terrain though, in terms of what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: i feel like you are right. Mostly because globals often struggle with the mesoscale nature of convection. And that explains why the GFS family struggles and the EURO does a tad better. EURO imo has always been the better ULL model. And speaking of. 12z euro is also starting to pick up an enhanced band of convection. although not as expansive north as high res models. Nice to see EURO still delivering significant snowfall to the Eastern areas and backing up the high res amounts. This to me validates those beefier high res runs of the RAP and 12km NAM. Trended SE from 06z. Hopefully, not an actual trend . Euro did similar with Christmas Storm at this range. Hopefully, same deal here. Short range main watch party from here in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 i feel like you are right. Mostly because globals often struggle with the mesoscale nature of convection. And that explains why the GFS family struggles and the EURO does a tad better. EURO imo has always been the better ULL model. And speaking of. 12z euro is also starting to pick up an enhanced band of convection. although not as expansive north as high res models. Nice to see EURO still delivering significant snowfall to the Eastern areas and backing up the high res amounts. This to me validates those beefier high res runs of the RAP and 12km NAM. Doesn’t the Euro have issues with cutting off the precip shield to quick on the NW side at times?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Doesn’t the Euro have issues with cutting off the precip shield to quick on the NW side at times? . Almost always. Yes. Most globals have convective feedback issues which can stunt precip growth away from the center of a storm system. Iike @Daniel Boone said it’s time for high res models to take the lead. But I find it encouraging to see euro coming in beefy for the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 SREF H5 mean looks more...energetic...with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Seems like the afternoon AFD from the NWS in Morristown is late today. Maybe they are wanting to look at 18z before issuing? I thought they normally had something out by 2:30 EST? At the very least I think a special weather statement is warranted. Going to be interesting to see how they handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Seems like the afternoon AFD from the NWS in Morristown is late today. Maybe they are wanting to look at 18z before issuing? I thought they normally had something out by 2:30 EST? At the very least I think a special weather statement is warranted. Going to be interesting to see how they handle. It's normally 3:15-4:15ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 this 12km run lol 9 inches of snow in 6 hrs in southern Unicoi 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looks like we got NAM'd just a little bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Middle and West Tennessee posters after the NAM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: But is the NAM a conjuror of cheap tricks? Most assuredly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Middle and West Tennessee posters after the NAM. But is the NAM a conjuror of cheap tricks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: But is the NAM a conjuror of cheap tricks It's magic is tricking the board! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Good we have a theme for this one now.. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 this 12km run lol 9 inches of snow in 6 hrs in southern Unicoi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 42 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Looks like they added more snow to the west when compared to the morning update. If the nam was even close to correct this winter I’d be counting snow in feet by now. Reality has been just under an inch of snow for the season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Winter Storm Watches now posted for NE TN and WNC border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Excellent discussion by the Morristown peeps: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 348 PM EST Wed Jan 6 2021 LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)... The main story for the long term period is the chance for widespread snowfall Thursday night into Friday, with several inches expected in the east TN mountains and a chance for some accumulating snow down into the valley floor. Will be focusing the discussion on this system as a result. Thursday evening a deep southern stream upper trough will cutoff over the Arklatex region, shifting east across northern Mississippi and Alabama through the night and into the Carolinas on Friday. There remains some disagreement with the placement of the upper low as it traverses the TN/MS/AL border Thursday night, which has implications on precip type and amounts. This lends itself to a still-low confidence forecast for the lower elevations of the TN valley. Elsewhere, especially in the east TN mountains along the NC border, confidence is much higher in precip type and reasonably high with regards to amounts. Precip looks to spread into the southern counties during the evening hours tomorrow, working north through the central valley by midnight or so, and finally up into the northern zones by daybreak Friday morning. This seems to be pretty well agreed on in the numerical guidance. BUFR soundings from various models do not support any snow reaching the lower elevations until after midnight, but between evaporative and dynamic cooling and the baseline thermal profile, expect that at minimum a rain/snow mix will be seen fairly early on at elevations above 2,000 ft or so. Snow levels will work their way lower through the night though, and expect to see a rain/snow mix down to the valley floor during during the very early morning hours on Friday. Let me go ahead and address the elephant in the room here and say that it doesn`t appear that this will be a very impactful snow event for the TN valley south of roughly Morristown or maybe even a little further north than that. Looking upstream, there is no source of frigid, dry arctic air that will surge south into the TN valley to support prolonged periods of snow at low elevations. Model soundings show a weak warm nose induced by southeasterly flow across the mountains, or perhaps a deep isothermal layer near the freezing line, through the time period where snow will exist. Given forecast surface temperatures, the driving factor in any accumulating snow will be precip rates and frankly they don`t look outstanding outside of the Appalachians where orographic lift will help enhance rates there. Have a tenth or two of accumulation from the southern valley up to around the Morristown area in the forecast. Now, moving on to the plateau, mountains, and other locales. The best window of heavier precipitation rates looks to be from roughly midnight Thu night through daybreak Fri morning. This is when the best low and mid level frontogenetic forcing transits the area. More susbtantial deep ascent will stay east of the forecast area into the Carolinas. Likewise, a persistent TROWAL feature is absent across our CWA, so this will be a quick hitting system in large part. Still, given the low freezing levels to start, expect that the mountains could pick up a quick 4-6" of snow late Thursday night as this system passes by. Some northwest flow snow showers will likely linger into Friday evening, but the best accumulating snowfall will be done by late Fri morning most likely. On the plateau, the same situation applies. Being further removed from the best forcing, expect snow amounts in the 1-3" range there. Having said all of that, decided to hoist up a Winter Storm Watch for the east TN mountains and far western NC from 8pm EST Thu through 8pm EST Fri. Confidence seems high enough to warrant that at this time. If trends continue, will likely need an advisory for the plateau. However, there`s enough uncertainty there, as well as the far northern TN valley and southwest Virginia (both of which will be furthest from the best moisture and lift) to hold off on any headlines now. Have snowfall accumulations in the 1-3" range in those locales as well but would not be surprised if those change (up or down) in future forecast packages. Otherwise, for the remainder of the long term period, cool and dry conditions continue through the weekend. There is a chance another southern stream system could bring chances for widespread wintry precip again on Monday night into Tuesday, but uncertainty is very high right now and it not worth going into detail on that system just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I fully expect somewhere to get 4+ inches of snow without any kind of advisory or warning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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