Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Ukie looking elevation dependent: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS Para shows the perils with an ULL and razor thin thermal profiles. We are pretty much rolling the dice.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: GFS Para shows the perils with an ULL and razor thin thermal profiles. We are pretty much rolling the dice. . That’s a weird snowline in west TN, I’d take it In a heartbeat though. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro cut way down of QPF vs 0z = warmer solution/ no dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro currently folding towards the GFS. Something that happened at this range during the Christmas event before it came back towards the Canadian suite at 0z. No clue about whether that will happen here or not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z NAM coming in way weaker on the northern side precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Soundings showing quite a bit of dry air above and below 700mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The exact path of the ULL will have major consequences on who gets what here. The models will likely jump around quite a bit with it. Heck, the NAM/GFS do that with every system that involves snow here. Tomorrow or even early Thursday may begin to set in stone our final fate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 We could hug the ARW cores of the SREF if we were desperate (for TRI): 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 RGEM is still kinda hopeful, wrt precip making it north, but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 As always, the winter panels are late, but based on 3 hour precip and 850 temps, suspect the 18z Euro will be kind to NE TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 It's great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Oh yeah, looks like the 18z Euro had some of whatever the RGEM had this AM: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The difference between the 18z GFS and EURO for NE TN is just a joke. Gfs has no snow while euro has a legit major winter storm. Onset is inside 3 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: The difference between the 18z GFS and EURO for NE TN is just a joke. Gfs has no snow while euro has a legit major winter storm. Onset is inside 3 days.... Just look at the Christmas event. The GFS was just blowing things out. The Euro actually waffled to the GFS for a a run or two then came back. The Canadian family was rock steady. The GFS finally came back some inside 36 hours. The Euro came back faster but still not enough. The NAM was awful and missed badly to the East and the UKIE was too warm for the longest time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Oh yeah, looks like the 18z Euro had some of whatever the RGEM had this AM: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, John1122 said: Just look at the Christmas event. The GFS was just blowing things out. The Euro actually waffled to the GFS for a a run or two then came back. The Canadian family was rock steady. The GFS finally came back some inside 36 hours. The Euro came back faster but still not enough. The NAM was awful and missed badly to the East and the UKIE was too warm for the longest time. Yeah I didn’t follow it hardcore because I was in Raleigh and a little grumpy about missing it hahaha but I remember the gfs being terrible. Hoping we do get the Euro camp to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I love a good storm where I could get 6” or 0”. But, that is what makes these things so fun to track living in the Tennessee Valley. I have a gut feeling that some of the models are under doing the precip shield on the north but it doesn’t really matter if our 500/850 lows continue to trend south. Normally I would say they would trend Northwestward but with so much blocking in place a further southeast movement and off the coast looks very likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 SREF is looking north and a little more negative with the energy. Now, will the NAM follow?? Last 5 SREF vorticity panels for 12z Jan 8: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Moisture feed looks better on 0z NAM compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hr 54 looks very euro-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Chatt gets NAM'd again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Good run for the entire eastern valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Still snowing across NE TN at 66..already closing in on 12" at MRX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 0z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Can we cash that NAM run in right now and call it a winter? I feel like we have already have had more storms to track this winter than the past 2-3 combined! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Still snowing across NE TN at 66..already closing in on 12" at MRX I’ll take it haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Difference the moisture feed makes...18z vs 0z (south/central valley). The dry air out in front was significantly less when the ULL pivoted east near AR on the 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Can you explain this chart to me Tellico? I've never figured out how to read these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Icy Hot said: Can you explain this chart to me Tellico? I've never figured out how to read these. Green line is the DP...Red line is the temp...as the line moves up the chart, it's like a weather balloon rising...shows how each layer is responding. Chart on top is 18z...as you follow the green/red line up, they separate (shows the dry air just off the ground). 0z the entire column is moist (green/red line together). The temp at the start of the lines when comparing the two, shows how if we can get the moisture feed right...dynamic cooling (snow melting as it falls, cooling the lower atmosphere near the ground) helping the lower elevation be 4° colder. The 0 line is the dark blue faint line running up the chart at an angle...if the temp line stays below or right at that line on its entire path, then you get snow...if it goes to the right of the 0 line (warmer temps) then you get mix or rain. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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