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January 7 - 8 ULL potential


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16 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

The difference between the 18z GFS and EURO for NE TN is just a joke.  
 

Gfs has no snow while euro has a legit major winter storm. Onset is inside 3 days.... 

Just look at the Christmas event.  The GFS was just blowing things out. The Euro actually waffled to the GFS for a a run or two then came back. The Canadian family was rock steady.  The GFS finally came back some inside 36 hours.  The Euro came back faster but still not enough. The NAM was awful and missed badly to the East and the UKIE was too warm for the longest time. 

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37 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Just look at the Christmas event.  The GFS was just blowing things out. The Euro actually waffled to the GFS for a a run or two then came back. The Canadian family was rock steady.  The GFS finally came back some inside 36 hours.  The Euro came back faster but still not enough. The NAM was awful and missed badly to the East and the UKIE was too warm for the longest time. 

Yeah I didn’t follow it hardcore because I was in Raleigh and a little grumpy about missing it hahaha 

but I remember the gfs being terrible. Hoping we do get the Euro camp to verify.

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I love a good storm where I could get 6” or 0”. But, that is what makes these things so fun to track living in the Tennessee Valley.

I have a gut feeling that some of the models are under doing the precip shield on the north but it doesn’t really matter if our 500/850 lows continue to trend south.

Normally I would say they would trend Northwestward but with so much blocking in place a further southeast movement and off the coast looks very likely.

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1 minute ago, Icy Hot said:

Can you explain this chart to me Tellico?

 I've never figured out how to read these.

Green line is the DP...Red line is the temp...as the line moves up the chart, it's like a weather balloon rising...shows how each layer is responding. Chart on top is 18z...as you follow the green/red line up, they separate (shows the dry air just off the ground). 0z the entire column is moist (green/red line together). The temp at the start of the lines when comparing the two, shows how if we can get the moisture feed right...dynamic cooling (snow melting as it falls, cooling the lower atmosphere near the ground) helping the lower elevation be 4° colder. The 0 line is the dark blue faint line running up the chart at an angle...if the temp line stays below or right at that line on its entire path, then you get snow...if it goes to the right of the 0 line (warmer temps) then you get mix or rain.

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