strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Can you slide one over this way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Para 18z GFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Can you slide one over this way . Ha! Y’all did okay, most of the foothills and mountains(even N of 85 in the upstate) was roughly 6+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Look at that Wake County gradient! 4+ north of 540, 0 at the south. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Look at that Wake County gradient! 4+ north of 540, 0 at the south. Wow Look at Durham. 1.5” near the airport while there’s about 9” in Rougemont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z GEFS mean looks as good or improved for most across the board compared to 12z. 12z: 18z: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: 18z GEFS mean looks as good or improved for most across the board compared to 12z. 12z: 18z: The EURO and GFS ensemble mean are both around 3" for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 movement of the precip per the 18z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 That was a nice step in the right direction by the GFS. Right now yes I would say the NAM was probably too far south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Meh... looking at the nam, gfs, cmc. I wouldn't say nam is too far south. Its surface reflection maybe. It's highly strung out and disorganized. But looking at the h5 level relatively same latitude as gfs. Unlike Canadian which takes it through TN instead of Northern AL, GA. I think the SW over MT, WY along with the ridging over PNW, SW Canada may be an issue. I guess we will see how it goes. Just too much moving pieces to get a solid answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just wish there was a lot colder air in place. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Can you slide one over this way I lived in NC for 56 years. I live basically where I place the red dot. I can tell you I have seen this output many times. Anson and Richmond county with nothing and Moore county scores. Good luck to the rest of you guys. I need to move . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Who as the weather bell accumulations for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Interesting that the UKMet is this wet...as it normally is on the conservative side with QPF 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, yotaman said: Just wish there was a lot colder air in place. Yeah me too. Plenty of QPF for a good hit for many but cold is too marginal. Western half of NC looks great. For my area, especially western upstate, cold just isn't there for much, maybe a little sleety slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Interesting that the UKMet is this wet...as it normally is on the conservative side with QPF Even at a low bias snow ratio 7:1 8:1 ratio that's a solid snow fall. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Yeah me too. Plenty of QPF for a good hit for many but cold is too marginal. Western half of NC looks great. For my area, especially western upstate, cold just isn't there for much, maybe a little sleety slop. There will be enough cold air for whoever gets under the heaviest bands just north west of the 850mb low Friday morning. its well below freezing everywhere but near surface and near surface doesn’t matter if it’s ripping 2-3 inch per hour rates. also, we’ve only seen the global model depictions for surface temps and they aren’t that far off... 40/32 before precip starts and most settle around 33-36 outside of the mountains. Won’t be surprised to see the hi-res models show 31-32 under the heavier bands when they get in range. (Assuming the low track and intensity doesn’t change much). I managed a nice 3 inch snow last year during the middle of the day thanks to heavy rates when no models had me dropping below 34-35 (including short range models). And that system didn’t have anywhere near the dynamics at play like this one will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 @burrel2 we did the same thing in Gastonia on 3/2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I may chase for this one. Thinking Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 What time do the 18z euro and eps come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 ^ Yeah guys you can click on a sounding were the precip is heavy and it will have 32 deg at the surface while areas to the north of it in light snow are like 34. Models are showing it and it matches with ground truth as we’ve seen in some prior storms with closed upper lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: What time do the 18z euro and eps come out? 18z Euro is slightly north/warmer. Snow confined to the mtns at the end at hr90 Fri morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Locals around here are really downplaying this storm, saying it will be to far south, to warm , etc.... they must be hugging the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, burrel2 said: There will be enough cold air for whoever gets under the heaviest bands just north west of the 850mb low Friday morning. its well below freezing everywhere but near surface and near surface doesn’t matter if it’s ripping 2-3 inch per hour rates. also, we’ve only seen the global model depictions for surface temps and they aren’t that far off... 40/32 before precip starts and most settle around 33-36 outside of the mountains. Won’t be surprised to see the hi-res models show 31-32 under the heavier bands when they get in range. (Assuming the low track and intensity doesn’t change much). I managed a nice 3 inch snow last year during the middle of the day thanks to heavy rates when no models had me dropping below 34-35 (including short range models). And that system didn’t have anywhere near the dynamics at play like this one will. Remember that storm well. Ppl at the same Elevation & Longitude as me further west got much more than my inch here in NE GVL county. Why? Because of timing. It hit u guys early morning hours in the case of NGA it was prior to sunrise. In some cases in NGA they had 6-8+ inches. It started here around 11am and didn't change over to snow til 12 noon. Timing looks to be good here in the Western Carolinas & NGA thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z Euro is slightly north/warmer. Snow confined to the mtns at the end at hr90 Fri morning Still not a bad look , wish it would go past 90 , that setup looks like it's about to deliver for southern and southwestern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 It is looking less and less likely that central NC gets a good snow from this system. Good luck to those in NW SC, NC, and southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: It is looking less and less likely that central NC gets a good snow from this system. Good luck to those in NW SC, NC, and southern VA. Define “central N.C.” because things here in Durham look as good as they have yet. I’d say the same for Chapel Hill, Hillsborough and Wake north of 540. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Define “central N.C.” because things here in Durham look as good as they have yet. Raleigh/Durham. The trends NW and warmer have started in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 ..until the 0z models come in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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