davenc Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: This is what we do around here. We whine a quarter way through the event. Sorry for that outburst! Lol I'm absolutely sick that the heavy band I will be able to see through the trees! Looks like it will be as close to me as Gastonia, which is 40miles west. Precip has yet to change to all SNOW imby.... still optimistic tho!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 The moisture on the models always seemed to outpace the cold air. Combine that with the daylight, and you’re going to have problems. At the end of the day this was always supposed to be a more convective Friday night event than stratiform snow like what is typically seen in Northern states. I’d expect some places to absolutely score tonight, but never was overly optimistic for anywhere east of 321 and south of I-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 RAH has reduced my afternoon snow forecast from 1”-3” to just 1”. Tonight is 0.5”. On to February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 54 minutes ago, eyewall said: Triangle folks this is your only hope: I am dead center of that but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Aunt’s deck north side of Cashiers at 4000’. Looks around 2-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: RAH has reduced my afternoon snow forecast from 1”-3” to just 1”. Tonight is 0.5”. On to February... Good luck getting that! I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic. I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Good luck getting that! I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic. I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February. I, too, had that sinking feeling when I woke up to unexpectedly warm temps. Here’s my station reading. I was fairly optimistic when I went to bed after midnight, but you can see what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 So in summary: 1) nothing has changed East of the Triad. Forecast still on track. Some areas saw flakes this morning but it was never supposed to stick outside of Triad. Still on track for the C-1 forecast and I do think some areas even East of the triangle will have some surprise totals higher than that 2) Unfortunately, bust for the triad folks. You’ll see snow, but it will not amount to the totals we were seeing last night. Deform band has trended south on models too, so it will be a wait and see for you guys 3) Charlotte is in play with that deform band. Actually has trended in that direction today 4) Mountains have done well, but definitely a screw zone even there. Foothills are just getting into it. Probably slightly less than forecast there but there will be some decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 One thing I've noticed with the deform band is that the snow almost makes it into Columbia. Been a long time since they've seen literally anything there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: This is what we do around here. We whine a quarter way through the event. You’re too kind....whining starts at least 4 days before an event..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said: but even if we manage a sloppy inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 What concerns me is a lot of future radars are holding that band as mostly rain. 12z Nam hinted at this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: One thing I've noticed with the deform band is that the snow almost makes it into Columbia. Been a long time since they've seen literally anything there. It's been nearly 4 years since we've had accumulating snow, but it has snowed two or three times since we've last had accumulating snowfall in March of 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, DeepSouthSC said: It's been nearly 4 years since we've had accumulating snow, but it has snowed two or three times since we've last had accumulating snowfall in March of 2017. I am hoping this is the year that Macon, Augusta, Columbia gets a Miller A scenario and gets a good snow. It has been about 10 years since the fall line got a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Sleet mixed with snow started here, 10 miles south of Winston-Salem NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, 1bert1 said: I am hoping this is the year that Macon, Augusta, Columbia gets a Miller A scenario and gets a good snow. It has been about 10 years since the fall line got a good snow. Amen Brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Good luck getting that! I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic. I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February. Guys be careful wishing for Feb/March, both look to be mild to warm right now (which is typical of Nina's) so stay focused on Jan as it might be the only chance we have 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, MichaelJ said: Guys be careful wishing for Feb/March, both look to be mild to warm right now (which is typical of Nina's) so stay focused on Jan as it might be the only chance we have What are you basing the FEB/March mild to warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 BullCity no more thread starts for you 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I think we will score Atleast one this season to many close calls and sooner or later we will all score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I think we will score Atleast one this season to many close calls and sooner or later we will all score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Raleigh still not on the board this season. Given it is La Nina, time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 10 hours ago, Avdave said: What are you basing the FEB/March mild to warm? Sorry Dave, just now saw this. I base it on the Nina history, the indices look to be turning against us in late Jan ( AO becoming positive, PNA going neutral to negative, MJO heading into the warm phases and the NAO going pretty neutral and the EPO going positive) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Forecast Verification (I used the accumulation maps from Eric Webb for verification): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, griteater said: Forecast Verification (I used the accumulation maps from Eric Webb for verification): Those maps are terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Those maps are terrible Ha, where is it off? Tough event to map I'm sure with the localized totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Ha, where is it off? It has all of McDowell under 4 inches and I don't think anyone in the county had that unless you were right along the Blue Ridge. Most of the county had under 2 inches and some under 1. The NWS snowfall map was more detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I would also contend that no one in Hickory had an inch of snow. Two dustings (one at dawn and one at 4 PM) might add up to 0.5 inch, though. Baker's Mt in Catawba County did have between 1-2 inches, but not Hickory. Their elevation sure helped, I suppose.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Also, no 3-inch totals in Lenoir. I have family that lives there, and I visited Saturday morning. Most of the snow was already gone by then, if not in shade. Maybe they had an inch, at best, prior to melting commencing. I would question anyone's measurement ability if they think they got 3 inches of snow in Lenoir, except perhaps on top of Hibriten Mt (the mountain with the lit star at Christmas).Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Regardless of Webb's maps, your forecast was the closest to verification of anyone's that I saw,@griteater . Much better than the TV mets and the NWS on this one, especially outside the mountains. Well done, sir.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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