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January 8th-9th threat


BullCityWx
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10 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

It looks like an area between Nashville and Chattanooga is getting buried right now. They had no warnings up a few hours ago... wwa now.

 Buried? The highest reports I’ve seen are under 2”. It is falling a low elevations though. That surprised me. I figured it would only accumulate on the Cumberland Plateau. 

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If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes 

Yeah this isn't looking good and we started the event a few degrees warmer than forecast.

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With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

Agreed and there is quite a dry slot rolling through as we speak. Look the lower level WV on College of Du Page.

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On 1/7/2021 at 9:30 AM, magpiemaniac said:

This is a friendly reminder that those of us east of I-77 are going to have to be really patient tomorrow.  There will be some cliff diving by lunchtime on Friday, but we will get something out of this by Friday night.  Just hang in there.

I’ll repeat this again.  Our best shot is this afternoon and evening.  I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can.  :P

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1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

I’ll repeat this again.  Our best shot is this afternoon and evening.  I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can.  :P

 

17 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

I agree, but the warning level snows were only going to verify if this front end produced in the triad area. Outside of that it’s been what occurs with the ULL passage and deform band all along, nothing has changed there. It will still snow from west to East this afternoon and I agree, there will be some surprises. But the triad is likely north of this feature if overnight and this morning’s modeling verify. These ULL scenarios are very tricky as they can be so localized. Someone will get 3 inches and the other side of the county sees white rain 

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16 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

To be honest this has behaved right on que for my location. Im suprised at Mt Airy switching over, struggling. Northern/central NC Mountains are gonna over perform no doubt. Most ,almost all the accums east of the mtns, definitely foothill region was to come from the backside band latter this evening. 

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14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

To be honest this has behaved right on que for my location. Im suprised at Mt Airy switching over, struggling. Northern/central NC Mountains are gonna over perform no doubt. Most ,almost all the accums east of the mtns, definitely foothill region was to come from the backside band latter this evening. 

You've been around here long enough to know who is gonna pull this whining during the event stuff. I feel like everything is on schedule here, I am a little disappointed I didnt get more mood flakes this morning but it is what it is. 

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