TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It looks to have a nice result with the position of the upper low and surface reflection. Moisture looks a bit meager at 84 but should be fine. Isn't the NAM usually known for overdoing the amount of moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I wouldn't put too much stock into NAM precip. forecasts until about 36-48hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Reading in other places and from mets not to expect much (snow) with this system in NC outside the mtns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Well, at least RAH mentioned a chance of Friday morning mixing in their early morning discussion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 ICON is more juiced up at 12z. Step in the right direction. Heavy snow in NC, compared to less snow last run not showing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z ICON is much further north than 6z... still not a great run but much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Trends are awesome for my backyard on icon and nam. Also the nam thermal profile is way colder than the globals. It’s got snow reaching the ground in Alabama at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z ICON showing some heavy snow near Raleigh per this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z ICON is much further north than 6z... still not a great run but much better.Yeah. The low placement is now on the just onshore ga/sc line at 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Few thoughts: 12z NAM: agree, better wave track this run - farther south 06z GFS / GFS v16: both were in the west to east slider storm camp. Main diff I see is that the GFS just isn't as dynamic aloft compared to the GFS v16 on the 06z run. You can see that here with the 850mb wind field. So again, the winter precip with this one is going to be dynamically generated on the NW side of the 850 low as NWS mentioned, so you want this to be as strong as possible aloft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 A bowling ball cutoff low this deep from Canada and in mid January is gonna produce. Just a matter of who’s on the nw side of the 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Trends are awesome for my backyard on icon and nam. Also the nam thermal profile is way colder than the globals. It’s got snow reaching the ground in Alabama at the end of its run. I left SC out on purpose if you know what I mean. Pulling for yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 ICON actually dryslots the triad it looks like this run. Edit: Also looks like the 321 corridor get dryslotted as well. Fayetteville or nearabouts jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Time to see what the GFS has to offer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Thanks Grit. Can you tell us what the track of the 850 ULL is looking like? Is it an Atlanta-Columbia-Virginia Beach run here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Look at this lift near Atlanta that is gonna pivot through: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 If you figure that lift pivots through GSP and Charlotte say 4-7 hours later, the storm starts in the middle of the night there. That is good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Thanks Grit. Can you tell us what the track of the 850 ULL is looking like? Is it an Atlanta-Columbia-Virginia Beach run here? On 06z GFS v16, the track is North Bama to NW SC to Kill Devil Hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The ICON looks pretty crappy on snow totals outside a few pockets and the mountains. Thankfully it's the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The ICON looks pretty crappy on snow totals outside a few pockets and the mountains. Thankfully it's the icon Just a lack of QPF from what I can gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Out to hr87, the GFS is a little south this run with the wave track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Trying not to get too up or down on precip. totals attm. Figure it's too early. Feature tracking is key right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 At 500MB, the low at 6z was over Memphis. This run, it's closer to Red Bay, MS. That is roughly a 120 mile shift SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Definitely farther south this run and more snow into the upstate even less in Northern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Its kind of like the 06Z run with not a whole lot of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 That’s a sweet little shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Surface temps are causing issues too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The moisture will come as it always does within 24-48 hours of event, assuming these Synoptics stay on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now