jburns Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 You have to love where I live right on the county line. If I sit in my den I’m under a winter storm warning but when I go to the bathroom not even a watch. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Big change for Mooresville , NC (Lake Norman)! Now calling for 3-6 inches with the latest GSP forecast. Earlier it was an inch or so at most. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, sarcean said: Big change for Mooresville , NC (Lake Norman)! Now calling for 3-6 inches with the latest GSP forecast. Earlier it was an inch or so at most. @Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 pm: ***The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for Catawba-NC, Iredell-NC, and Davie-NC. A Winter Storm Warning will also be issued for Rowan-NC. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for a tier of forecast zones south of the Warning.*** Latest WV imagery reveals upper cyclone centered over northern Miss., with strongly diffluent flow downstream over much of the Deep South and the TN Valley. As the short wave ridge currently centered over the forecast area shifts east, and the upper low continues to wobble east, forcing and moisture will increase rapidly across our forecast area this evening, with precip chances ramping up quickly across western areas through midnight. Surface ridge extending from surface anticyclone over Ontario will spill into the area through the period, resulting in increasing low level NE flow and gradually advecting lower wet bulb temp air into the forecast area. Having said that, wet bulb temps are already around freezing across much of the NC mtns, and those areas are poised to see primarily snow as precip develops this evening. (The Little TN Valley and adjacent valleys are warmer as usual, and will likely see almost as much RA as wintry precip). Locations east of the mountains will, as usual be more problematic, and will (also as usual) depend upon temperature trends in the lowest 1000` or so. While all locations east of the mtns will more than likely start out with rain, advection of the lower wet bulb air should support a transition to snow along and north of I-40, and in fact, precip should be more frozen than not in those areas. Closer to the I-85 corridor, things get a lot trickier. Guidance generally agrees that mostly rain will be seen closer to the NC/SC border. However, periods of stronger synoptic forcing will support high precip rates at times tonight (classic "cross-hair signature" indicated in model cross sections), and this may force periods of a mix with or transition to SN, although how much that would be able to accumulate is debatable. Another source of uncertainty is the potential for a narrow band of mixed precip, most likely sleet, but a brief period of FZRA can`t be ruled out, as the NAM has been consistent in developing a warm nose, albeit not a particularly strong one near the NC/SC border tonight. Since the NAM usually does a good job in capturing these features, even when other guidance does not, we continue to forecast a region of sleet from the GA/SC/ southern NC mtns into the Piedmont. Forecast accumulation is minimal, but this does create another pitfall for the snow accum forecast. Of greater concern for areas east of the mtns, and especially the Piedmont and I-77 corridor, will be the potential for mesoscale banding during the daylight hours Friday, as deformation zone matures in response to cyclone deepening off the coast. Convection-allowing models, especially those that are NAM-based and even the operational NAM itself depict potential for locally high precip rates, esp across the Piedmont from late morning into the afternoon, possibly resulting in quickly accumulating snowfall, even in areas outside the warning. Of course, predicting where exactly this will (or if it will) set up is akin to predicting where a cluster of thunderstorms will develop 24 hours in advance. Nevertheless, the potential exists for locally intense snowfall rates tomorrow, especially across the Piedmont. In terms of amounts: storm totals are forecast to range from 5 to 9 inches across the NC mtns, except more in the 1-3 inch range across the valleys of far southwest NC and over much of Rabun County GA. Four to six inches are expected across the northern NC foothills, where a developing stout easterly flow is expected to enhance precip rates tonight, while 2-4 inches are generally forecast for the northwest NC Piedmont. General 1-2 inch amounts are forecast in the Advisory areas detailed above, although the southern part of those zones may see little to no accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 56 minutes ago, jburns said: Raleigh is conservative because that results in the highest number of correct forecasts in our area. Can’t blame them. It is the occasional big snow that finds them scrambling to catch up. In the several heavy snow events in my almost fifty years of living here the conversation goes like this. Forecast: A trace to an inch of snow. Me: We have 3“ so far. Wife: Raleigh just upped the storm totals to 1-2”. 2 hours a later Me: I just measured 4” Wife” Raleigh has upped the storm total to 1-3” 4 hours later Me: I just measured 8”. Wife: Raleigh has upped the storm totals tp 2-4” with isolated areas up to 6”. Rinse and repeat depending on just how big the storm is. Got 20” in 2004. The one big snow that i've been through was i think 2000 in Roxboro...i remember the forecasts going into the evening were calling for maybe an inch or two. Then it started snowing...and it didn't stop snowing for 11 hours. We ended up with over a foot and a half IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 RAL hoists winter weather advisory now URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 336 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 ...Accumulating Wet Snow Likely Across the NC Piedmont Late Tonight Through Early Friday night... .An area of low pressure will strengthen while tracking up the Southeast coast through Friday night. The low pressure and associated moisture will interact with marginally cold high pressure over the middle Atlantic states. Wet snow accumulations, with surface temperatures near and just above freezing, will result. Hazardous travel conditions may result. NCZ007>010-023>026-040-041-073>076-081200- /O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.210108T0600Z-210109T0600Z/ Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin- Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee- Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, and Sanford 336 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain will overspread the Advisory area late tonight through Friday morning, with a few hour period of all snow possible Friday morning. The precipitation will likely turn to a cold rain during the midday and afternoon hours, before changing back to snow Friday evening and early Friday night. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with lesser amounts --generally a coating to an inch-- along the southeast edge of the Advisory area. * WHERE...The Piedmont and western Sandhills of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact both the Friday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, jburns said: You have to love where I live right on the county line. If I sit in my den I’m under a winter storm warning but when I go to the bathroom not even a watch. And five minutes after I post that they issue a warning. Now I have to take my snow shovel into the bathroom. I hate that. 1 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I’m now under a WSW. RAH now expects 3” here with a high end of 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: The one big snow that i've been through was i think 2000 in Roxboro...i remember the forecasts going into the evening were calling for maybe an inch or two. Then it started snowing...and it didn't stop snowing for 11 hours. We ended up with over a foot and a half IIRC It has a name........Carolina Crusher. Snuck in like a thief in the night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Again, totals for eastern NC going up and up with latest NAM. Gotta like the trends if you're Raleigh-east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I know it will be a heavy wet snow - what are the liquid to snowfall ratios expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, sarcean said: I know it will be a heavy wet snow - what are the liquid to snowfall ratios expected? Without a better cold air source, I'd go 5:1. Chop QPF in half almost everywhere outside the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Always exciting to be under the first winter weather headline of the year. Liking the trends today in the Raleigh area. Think my odds of getting the grass covered are north of 50% now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1"-2"s now projected for Cary. snow->rain->snow on back end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: 1"-2"s now projected for Cary. snow->rain->snow on back end Im sticking close to the 1" mark for us here. Unless we have a band set up over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: 1"-2"s now projected for Cary. snow->rain->snow on back end Exactly what the Euro depicts. I didn’t think we’d start as snow but I guess that’s on the table now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Hearing some wet snow reports in the northern suburbs of Atlanta. MPING has a few mix reports as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Latest HRRR looks to be good for central N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Latest HRRR looks to be good for central N.C. I like that 18z HRRR. Triad sitting in the crosshairs. Kuchera of 8” IMBY. (I wish.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: I like that 18z HRRR. Triad sitting in the crosshairs. Kuchera of 8” IMBY. (I wish.) Looks like the 20z will be even better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Enjoy it NC folks..post pics so us SC can at least see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Without a better cold air source, I'd go 5:1. Chop QPF in half almost everywhere outside the mountains. 7:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 46 minutes ago, jburns said: You have to love where I live right on the county line. If I sit in my den I’m under a winter storm warning but when I go to the bathroom not even a watch. Lol. Randolph ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Grayman said: Lol. Randolph ? Yep, and before you say something, yes we do have indoor toilets. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 @ 5AM , it is ripping snow nw NC, S VA per HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 7:1 For you north of Danville, yes. But in the central piedmont and as you move down towards CLT no. Even the last guidance from RAH is calling for wet snow with surface temps just above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, jburns said: Yep, and before you say something, yes we do have indoor toilets. lol. I’m 50 miles south of you and no WWA or Winter storm warning. wWA 15 miles north of me. Good luck. I’m use to this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Judging by radar the mountains in SC are going to get blasted in the next few hours. Plenty cold through the column even down in to the upstate. The warm nose doesn't show up until around 11pm tonight. Could get to see some silver dollars rip this evening in the upstate even if it's too warm to stick at the surface, imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 This is going to be one where just south of Uptown CLT, we'll be lucky to see any accumulation, but at my in-laws north of Huntersville/Denver, they'll probably get 3-4 inches. Happens 2-3 times a year it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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