BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: These ULL situations are modeled so much better than so many other winter storms. Details certainly have changed run to run and if you’re living and dying by snow maps you’re probably on about you last thread by this point but the storm track and most other synoptic features have been locked in for several days. Forecasting the mesoscale environment and features will be the challenge for sure and that’s ultimately what will define this storm but overall I can go back 3-4 days and models don’t look much different than they do now I think the most critical part of this storm for the N&W areas of the Triangle(I am speaking of Orange/Durham N of 40 and Wake N of 540) are between 1-5PM tomorrow. Can we: A. Hold off the changeover while we wait on the back end snow as modeled B. If we do changeover, limit what falls during the changeover If we can do either of those things, I think we could end up with a decent event. I think we stand to do okay in the morning. Snow ratios start increasing with the back end band up to 10:1 with some of the stuff I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: These ULL situations are modeled so much better than so many other winter storms. Details certainly have changed run to run and if you’re living and dying by snow maps you’re probably on about you last thread by this point but the storm track and most other synoptic features have been locked in for several days. Forecasting the mesoscale environment and features will be the challenge for sure and that’s ultimately what will define this storm but overall I can go back 3-4 days and models don’t look much different than they do now Will we ever have the technology to accurately and reliably forecast this? Find me a met who can absorb and analyze the data, plus using institutional knowledge of weather-forecasting in this region finger point these areas for me on a map 72hrs in advance and we'd have ourselves a real keeper. Of course I believed in Santa Claus probably way later into youth than most of you. But that was back in the early 70s when I'm sure longer range weather forecasting demands were quite less stressful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 Also if the NAM is right and we get heavy snow first thing tomorrow morning, it's a very real possibility we fend off the changeover. A couple of events that I am thinking that went similarly: February 1999 January 1987 November 2000 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Much better run on the RGEM for N NC and S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, oconeexman said: Was hoping these cloudy made it here quick this morning Clouds have thickened up here but temp up to 37 so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Also if the NAM is right and we get heavy snow first thing tomorrow morning, it's a very real possibility we fend off the changeover. A couple of events that I am thinking that went similarly: February 1999 January 1987 November 2000 Yea that switch over will be crucial. It's good though on the NAM has a clear deformation zone is showing up, that's very promising. Also most are pretty north of the low. Someone will be left with a lot of rain while about 30 miles in another direction it could be all snow....but what else is new in the south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Much better run on the RGEM for N NC and S VA Where do you access the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Off topic, but it’s so hilarious that it almost takes an act of god, snowman cometh situation to get snow in the South, yet in the Rockies, it can accidentally snow in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Where do you access the RGEM? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021010706&fh=51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 42 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: ^ looks like a reasonable map! Looks absolutely horrific!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Will we ever have the technology to accurately and reliably forecast this? Find me a met who can absorb and analyze the data, plus using institutional knowledge of weather-forecasting in this region finger point these areas for me on a map 72hrs in advance and we'd have ourselves a real keeper. Of course I believed in Santa Claus probably way later into youth than most of you. But that was back in the early 70s when I'm sure longer range weather forecasting demands were quite less stressful Haha. I doubt we will ever be able to accurately forecast where they will setup in advance, but we can nail down the most likely areas for them to do so given the placement of the ULL. Beyond that it’s all now casting and I guess that was my point that overall this system has been very much locked in for days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Much better run on the RGEM for N NC and S VA Jackpotting a foot just south of GSO?? Nice! But the RGEM may be flying solo on this one. Not a lot of support elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Clouds have thickened up here but temp up to 37 so... Then hopefully that will help keep temps from climbing into unmanageable territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Jackpotting a foot just south of GSO?? Nice! But the RGEM may be flying solo on this one. Not a lot of support elsewhere. Not really.... it has the general idea that most of the Hi-Res Models have , outside of the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 DT'S First Guess ... very bullish Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 ^ Six-ten inches of snow for Hickory? I hope DT is correct, but I'm not banking on that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: DT'S First Guess Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Well DT didn't hold back! I'm a little lost on why he scaled back the mountain and western foothill totals. It would seem his entire chart should be shifted 50-75 miles southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, calculus1 said: ^ Six-ten inches of snow for Hickory? I hope DT is correct, but I'm not banking on that. Going to be interesting where it that heaviness sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah we know how bullish he is but maybe he will adjust it in his next map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 My thoughts are NWS Raleigh will issue a WWA from Randolph through Durham and up to Vance county tonight at some point for 1-2” of snow. East of there I doubt anything gets issued unless a deform band sets up and it will be a quick fire issuance. I’m actually feeling better about most areas in the triangle getting at least a coating of snow which is a win and some areas could have a few surprises. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Yeah we know how bullish he is but maybe he will adjust it in his next map... I'm sure he will trim back the northern extent in VA. That map was based upon information from 18 and 00z yesterday/last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: ^ Six-ten inches of snow for Hickory? I hope DT is correct, but I'm not banking on that. DT is off his fooking rocker on that map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 45 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Showing the upper pop around south mountains but still no love for this area. Strange map..Graham county under a warning with less than 1" of snow shown on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Gsp short term. Not putting catawba and iredell into the warnings yet. As of 1015 am: Water vapor imagery shows upper low centered near Ark-La-Miss junction. Associated cirrus shield will continue spilling over the downstream ridge into the forecast area throughout the afternoon, resulting in generally mostly cloudy/partly sunny conditions. Filtered insolation will likely result in max temps around 5 degrees below normal across much of the area this afternoon. Model consensus carries the surface low south of the I-20 corridor late today through Friday morning, with the core of the upper low moving near the southern border of TN and NC during this time frame. This will place most of the CWA just on the cool side of the warm front. Most of the area will start off well above freezing in the early evening; moisture will quickly deepen as the sfc/upper low encroach on the area before midnight, bringing in precip chances from the SW. The strongest dynamic forcing will precede the upper low into the area, peaking in the predawn hours Friday, with the better moisture lagging the forcing somewhat. The best frontogenetic forcing will occur nearer the warm front. Precip type still looks quite tricky, mainly east of the mtns, and perhaps across the mountain valleys of southwest NC. There will be a lot of midlevel dry air to overcome early in the event, and the WAA gives us a weak warm nose as well (though not as strong as we often see with these sorts of systems). The higher mountains likely will see snow through most of the event, but lower elevations and areas further south will see some period of sleet, or perhaps even freezing rain where the warm nose (along with evaporative cooling diminishing it at least locally) is present. Confidence is sufficient such that all zones in the Watch were converted to a Warning earlier this morning with the exception of Catawba, Iredell, and Davie Counties in NC. This area will take longer to see accumulation reach any criteria, and with the potential for accumulations to go one way or the other, we have held off on upgrading there. These areas almost certainly will need an Advisory or Warning depending on where their final forecast total ends up. With the upper low crossing the area during the day Friday, even as winds turn more downslope and moisture becomes more shallow, there will remain support for significant precip as the deformation zone scrapes the NC Piedmont. Temperatures will be held nearly steady in the 30s where the precip is ongoing, and many areas will continue to see snow during the day, possibly mixing with rain. Strong lapse rates under the low may allow enhanced precip rates and snow will be more likely during those periods. The event will transition to northwest flow late Friday across the NC/TN border area as PoPs continue to drop off east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The 15z RAP is Hammer Time for western NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR already has half a foot of snow on the ground in Shelby tomorrow morning at 8z. Looks very convective in nature. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The HRRR is much quicker coming in with the precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 HRRR already has half a foot of snow on the ground in Shelby tomorrow morning at 8z. Looks very convective in nature. [mention=1293]beanskip[/mention] I know you are around from afar. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Canadian looks much more appropriate with precip field. Low track just outside of Hatteras or right over usually bodes well for I-40 north, with thermals cooperating of course. Hoping for a surprise here but won’t go off into a JI rage either. Would be nice to get some southeasterly flow to enhance moisture with low still to our south and aid in isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Me thinks a lot of people will be disappointed when they wake up tomorrow morning and thru out the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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