CentralNC Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: I have been MIA being too busy to get on here. My call at this point is: Western Mountains of NC to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock, and adjacent VA: 3-6 (locally 8) inches Triad to Danviile VA: 1-3 (locally 4) inches RDU: Dusting to an inch South and east of there: token flakes at the end That looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I think eyewall's map will end up being pretty darn close. Here at my weather station this morning it was 23.6 at 5:55AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 37 minutes ago, JoshWeather said: Had 27 on the car in N. Durham this morning. 25 in southern person county. Quite chilly. Hoping my move from Stallings to Durham earlier this year proves fruitful in the snow department. In my 7 years in stallings i think we saw a total of 5 inches of snow. Hey man! What part of north Durham? We’re in Greymoss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Kind of surprised at the limited number of watch/warning/advisory counties in NC, SC & GA with this coming system. Thought it would be a bit more expansive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 21 here this morning, ground temps shouldn't be much of an issue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Hey man! What part of north Durham? We’re in Greymoss. Nice, we moved due to me getting a job that paid alot more for the time being and we were looking to rent a house in that area just off of rose of sharon but ended up settling on one off of Infinity, so i'm not far from you...we'll likely see very similar outcomes with whatever happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, CaryWx said: Kind of surprised at the limited number of watch/warning/advisory counties in NC, SC & GA with this coming system. Thought it would be a bit more expansive Still a lot up in the air. They will expand as necessary this evening or even tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12z hrrr crushes wnc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Was hoping these cloudy made it here quick this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Welp they did, made it to 32 and got a thick cloud deck. Gonna be a struggle to hit that 45 today. We will see how this affects tonight. To me around here its one of the most under rated factors is capping the cold or max warning before cloud deck roll in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12z NAM actually lights up Central and Eastern NC as the "deform" rolls through Friday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Dipped to 26 in Concord and still frosty outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 This is a friendly reminder that those of us east of I-77 are going to have to be really patient tomorrow. There will be some cliff diving by lunchtime on Friday, but we will get something out of this by Friday night. Just hang in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wow-the NAM must not have been too good...very little discussion about it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Wow-the NAM must not have been too good...very little discussion about it! I wouldn't say that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 The 3k and 12k are different. 3k stays south of VA border, 12k smokes S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The 3k and 12k are different. 3k stays south of VA border, 12k smokes S VA Question, is which is more accurate at this range at predicting moisture envelope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Wow-the NAM must not have been too good...very little discussion about it! I liked it. I think 3” max snow depth IMBY is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Question, is which is more accurate at this range at predicting moisture envelope? Good question but the HRRR is similar to the 12k to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Question, is which is more accurate at this range at predicting moisture envelope? As one of the mets posted on here the other day, the 12 km NAM is usually pretty goofy with its surface depiction. It is bad about displaying widespread QPF as one consistent mass. The 3km is higher resolution and it is usually has a reasonably accurate depiction of reflectivity in that there will be bands, not one continuous mass of precipitation in this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 This secondary max situation is becoming real for Eastern NC. They may cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I still think the precip will be more expansive into Virginia than what the NAM/3k NAM models are showing. I've clicked thorough just about all other hi-res guidance and it does not have that sharp northern cutoff. I'll be very surprised if it indeed shuts off right at the VA/NC border. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GSP NWS calling for thundersnow! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Latest NWS GSP Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 ^ looks like a reasonable map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, JoshWeather said: Nice, we moved due to me getting a job that paid alot more for the time being and we were looking to rent a house in that area just off of rose of sharon but ended up settling on one off of Infinity, so i'm not far from you...we'll likely see very similar outcomes with whatever happens! Yeah, that isnt far at all. We honestly wanted to be more in town but couldnt bring ourselves to spend what you'd need to spend on a house in Trinity Park or Old West Durham. You're gonna do much better here than Stallings in general. if you want to do some research as to how things usually go up here, ABC11 has video on YouTube from the December 2018 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3k showing heavy rain in some areas where it should be snow (and the sounding says it’s snow), which could explain some of the odd totals or lack thereof in certain areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 These ULL situations are modeled so much better than so many other winter storms. Details certainly have changed run to run and if you’re living and dying by snow maps you’re probably on about you last thread by this point but the storm track and most other synoptic features have been locked in for several days. Forecasting the mesoscale environment and features will be the challenge for sure and that’s ultimately what will define this storm but overall I can go back 3-4 days and models don’t look much different than they do now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Latest NWS GSP Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast: Showing the upper pop around south mountains but still no love for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: This secondary max situation is becoming real for Eastern NC. They may cash in. Has trended better and better with the formation of that deformation band. I mentioned that the other day as being a possibility as the energy transfers to the coastal and that area of dynamic forcing moves East but it’s only now been consistently showing up on the hi-res models. Triangle-East hinges on this development 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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