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January 8th-9th threat


BullCityWx
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  On 1/7/2021 at 3:21 AM, wncsnow said:

Someone's gonna be shafted near us with downsloping away from the main bands. Probably me.

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Someone is definitely going to get shafted. I was thinking that the east facing slopes would have less moisture in this setup but it seems like areas further west have lower totals taking the 00z models verbatim. 

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The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event.  Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs.  The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

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  On 1/7/2021 at 2:45 AM, CentralNC said:
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Agreed.  That was an excellent discussion.  Really interesting and informative.

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  On 1/7/2021 at 3:24 AM, burrel2 said:

The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event.  Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs.  The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

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The disagreement with the ensembles with some of these is stunning.

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  On 1/7/2021 at 3:24 AM, burrel2 said:

The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event.  Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs.  The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

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I agree. Brad P just posted that the snow trend was slightly south. He include Charlotte in the 1 inch range. Dang this is tough. 

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