BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS was a dud this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I think the timing shift to later in the day has certainly hurt things, specifically BL temps. That is impacting accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Possibly a dud storm. The GFS has shown a struggle with temps for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Possibly a dud storm. The GFS has shown a struggle with temps for days now. It’s the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I think the timing shift to later in the day has certainly hurt things, specifically BL temps. That is impacting accums. I’ll be honest: I like the timing on the NAM. If it’s right, there’s zero diurnal heating. It’s snowing by 7AM and only picks up in intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The GFS issues is as much about lack of heavy precip as it is temperature 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: The GFS issues is as much about lack of heavy precip as it is temperature You nailed it. When we see lighter precip, we see less frozen. When we see heavier QPF depicted, the column is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: It’s snowing by 7AM and only picks up in intensity. Yes any time before sun rise the better in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The GFS issues is as much about lack of heavy precip as it is temperature Yeah that has been the case for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 The GFS still had me getting a half of an inch on Christmas Eve at this range. Y’all remember that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Same way with next weeks storm..moisture starved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Also thinking about this system: if we’re thinking this system is dynamic and have banding, the NAM is clearly designed to pick that up better than the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Para GFS has a lot more moisture for western areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 EE rule in effect? Asking for a friend 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: EE rule in effect? Asking for a friend You went old school on us! LOL! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, rduwx said: You went old school on us! LOL! I consider Friday the start of the weekend, so weekend rule in effect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Recent SREF plumes for KHKY. I removed the highest three (each above 7 inches) and the lowest three outputs (each below 1 inch). That results in a mean of 4.17 inches for KHKY. Cut that in half, and two inches or so sounds about right for my locale, I would think. Let's see how it goes: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Here's the most recent meteogram for KHKY adjusted for 6:1 snow ratios (rather than the default 11:1). Based on this site, two inches or so also appears to be a good blend of the other models for my location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, rduwx said: You went old school on us! LOL! I aint gonna believe it until the NGM and RUC buys in. The NGM was how I knew the February 2004 storm was legit. It had an 8 in the snow column in MOS and it NEVER had an 8. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 I wanted to dig in deeper IMBY for the 12z NAM. Looks like we're all snow until hour 63 when some IP mixes in. F5wx.com is giving me a roughly 6:1 ratio with 1.45 QPF. That's still 9" with a 6:1 ratio. Not sure that I buy that solution but it's fun to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z CMC with another good run for the foothills, SW VA and S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z CMC with another good run for the foothills, SW VA and S VA Do you have snow map for cmc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Do you have snow map for cmc?12z CMC KucheraSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z CMC Kuchera Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Thanks. It even gets good snow all the way up to south of Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Thanks. It even gets good snow all the way up to south of Richmond Yep, dusting up to Fredericksburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 TWC veryyy bullish on amounts in NW NC and SW VA... I feel it would be a sin to post the map, but they have a large swath of 3-5” along and north of i40 (including the entire triad) and a band 1-3” roughly between i85 and i40. They sure have a way of over-hyping a storm at this range... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Local Triad tv Mets seem suddenly bullish today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Local Triad tv Mets seem suddenly bullish today Van Denton and Matthew East are my go-to tv mets. (Lordy, I miss East in the Triad. We were robbed.) Van loves snow, but he’s not a homer. When he jumps on board, I listen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 One of the local Mets up here in VA is calling for around 2-4" for my location for a 1st call ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Tough for TV mets with a storm like this, where they like to broad brush accum amounts. Given banding, someone will verify or bust high, and someone will not come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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