January 8th-9th threat

[Jwisephoto]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Gfs Para

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Cash me out with that run... 7 inches makes everybody happy.

[85snowline]

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Half of my county gets nothing and the other half gets almost a foot.

Welcome to NC, and specifically the 85 curse zone from the Rowan/Cabarrus Co. line all the way to Greenville, SC. What county are u in btw??

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, 85snowline said:

Welcome to NC, and specifically the 85 curse zone from the Rowan/Cabarrus Co. line all the way to Greenville, SC. What county are u in btw??

Greenville, SC oddly enough. 

[BornAgain13]

By the way guys and gals , here is a view of the latest SREF.

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[HKY_WX]

10:1ratio maps are prob pretty useless considering this will be marginal below 850mb. Still, the dynamics will support some banding and clusters of higher amounts. Def will be a hit or miss type of event 

[85snowline]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Greenville, SC oddly enough. 

Huge county! Im assuming N.Greenville County gets smashed? I have friends all around Gville... Simpsonville particularly.  I'll chk in with those clowns..!! Lol

[BullCityWx]

One thing I’ve noted in a few runs is there’s almost like a Miller B transfer with the QPF. Feel like we’re going to see people very happy where you actually see precip.

[85snowline]

WBTV pretty adamant that this will be a LONG DURATION event. Lots of mix/rain for S.Piedmont most of day Friday. Then later on friday showing cold air wrapping in with plenty of liquid still available. 

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

Huge county! Im assuming N.Greenville County gets smashed? I have friends all around Gville... Simpsonville particularly.  I'll chk in with those clowns..!! Lol

Oh yeah. The northern part of the county with its high elevation where the state parks are will no doubt jackpot. I live just south of I-85 in Mauldin. Hopefully I get lucky and see a dusting if nothing else. 

[BornAgain13]

Brad Panovich put out a call map, has 2-4" up my way , with 4"+ in the mountains

[Ghicks]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Brad Panovich put out a call map, has 2-4" up my way , with 4"+ in the mountains

What county are you located in?

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Ghicks said:

What county are you located in?

I'm in Dry Fork, VA , North West of Danville. 

[BornAgain13]

CMC is another solid hit for most...

[ozmaea]

wonder how greer fares

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[85snowline]

Eric Thomas's very sad Charlotte snow predictions per the models ..GFS!!! Please!

[Ghicks]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm in Dry Fork, VA , North West of Danville. 

Cool I’m in Surry county just north of mount airy near the va line 

[wncsnow]

Euro looks a smidge south of last run with the vort in Louisiana 

[wncsnow]

Don't think this run is going to be as good for western NC. Lighter precip

[wncsnow]

Euro clown

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

EURO was north with the upper low.

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro clown

I don’t think this snow map is very far off from what reality will be given this setup. Northern Triad/eastern foothills seem to consistently be the areas where it wants to snow on most models and 1-4 inch amounts seem reasonable there. Given the easterly flow, some elevation bonus, the foothills and eastern slopes look to be the jackpot. As the precip works East, an increasing them has been an area where precip falls off as the energy transfer occurs. This is a very common look with ULL energy transferring to a surface low off the coast. There will definitely be a “screw zone” or cutoff area to the east of the first thump of precip. This area may not get rates to overcome the warm BL and likely sees little to no accumulation. Further East, triangle/NE NC, everything will depend on what particular bands do. The euro has this well represented with some pockets of 1”+. Given the time of day, marginal to poor airmass, and relative lack of duration, it would take the SLP to get cranking and the formation of a DZ to produce more snow than shown. The GFS actually shows this but the column is just a hair too warm several thousand feet up. The GFS solution, if a hair cooler, would produce a nice secondary band further East. I think, my first call will and relative max of 4-8” on the eastern slopes and foothills including Asheville and hickory. I think the 85 and north area of the upstate sees 1-2 inches north of Greenville to Charlotte with little to no accumulation in those cities. There will be a sharp cutoff to this snow on the southern end but I think western Oconee county will see you to 2-4 inches while eastern parts don’t have any. This will progress through the extreme western upstate and into N.C. the triad will be a north of 85 event and I can see 2-4” there. For the immediate 85 area, mooresville, high point, Greensboro, East to roxboro, it’ll depend on where the energy transfer takes place and where a relative lack of dynamic banding occurs. This will extend into SW VA. Amounts will taper off north and East with Lynchburg to Richmond the cutoff for any snowfall accumulation of a coating or more.  I’m going C-2” for these areas. East of there is more of a crapshoot and more dependent of small scale factors we can’t see yet. I’m thinking the triangle to NE NC and extreme SE VA will see highly localized snowfall of a C-1.5” max UNLESS that energy transfer happens sooner and the SL slings moisture in a deformation setup where rates overcome warm BL and last long enough. The other issue in this area will be getting sustained bands. There may be some pockets of heavy snow that taper to rain between bands. It is very hard to accumulate snow if it changes to rain on n lighter returns. I think the area that has the highest potential for this would be NE NC, Ricky Mount-Williamston-Roanoke rapids. I’m not forecasting that atm and will stick with a generic 0-1.5” across the entire area east of 85 with more areas in the 0” range and only localized accumulation elsewhere. Another negative of this storm will be the tendency for it to change to rain after the snowfall has ended. Some of these accumulations will certainly be short lived and with hours until the boundary falls below freezing and warm ground temps, much of this will be gone by Saturday. 

[olafminesaw]

6z models bring the moisture but seem pretty warm

[FLweather]

Where ever that band sets up from the ULL.

The moisture and cold will be deep.

Deep instability above, in and below the DGZ.

It's either going to rain or snow hard. BL temps will not be a problem. 

Sort of reminds me of that one ULL that came through years ago.

It was raining in Timberlake but roughly 10 miles Nw towards Hyco Lake near my house... we ended up with roughly 7" of powder. 

[magpiemaniac]

This might be the first real event when my moving north ten miles in Guilford County could pay off in terms of snow.  The gradients could play out that much in places.  We’ll see.

[buckeyefan1]

Not that it matters too much, but here’s the sref mean

[calculus1]

Is it just me, or does this event seem to have slowed down a bit?  It now seems like the bulk of the precipitation will come during the daylight hours, according to the GFS this morning.

[magpiemaniac]

Only one real outlier (of 13.3”) in the SREF plumes for GSO.  Throw that one out and it’s a mean of 3.3”.  I expect no more than half of that and even that could be irrational exuberance.

[tarheelwx]

Lack of precip on some of the 06z models was not reassuring.  I'd take 3" right now and feel like I stole something. 

TW

[BullCityWx]

24 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Lack of precip on some of the 06z models was not reassuring.  I'd take 3" right now and feel like I stole something. 

TW

I think we're smarter to use the ensemble means for now. It smooths out the potential convective and banding elements some of these models are seeing.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

06Z Euro crushes WNC. Plenty of moisture available.