Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I will take a hard pass on that analog. See that downsloping area with no snow cover? That's MBY. Agonizing storm after multiple awful winters here. LOL yeah that was a raw deal for the immediate foothills. With the 50/50 in place that shouldn't be a problem here. Sfc temps already in the mid 30's before the precip even arrives per NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, Wow said: It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL. 0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south. Should be a classic miller A track there. I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place! I was thinking the same thing today. Wherever it snows, it could snow hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS may break some hearts. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Let’s hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: GFS may break some hearts. We shall see. The low pressure is farther south so far on the GFS as compared to the 18Z run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Tracking these potential snow systems reminds me of a kid tracking Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Yeah, 0z GFS further south with the sfc low at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Western NC mountains and foothills heavy snow at 102. Quicker than other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Boom 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Beautiful. ULL tracking over central GA. Gonna see some good stuff outta this... Verbatim N of I-85 as usual 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Thank you GFS! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Best run of the system so far on the GFS and most of the moisture falls at night in Western NC which will help some with borderline surface temps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Kinda paltry precip shield on top. Would think some Atlantic moisture would help that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Y’all think the nw trend will Happen with this one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 It's more suppressed than other runs as seen by the QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 With the cutoff ULL I'd expect to see a lot more precip build back from CLT to RDU but you're likely not going to see that get picked up on the models until we're within 48-60 hrs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Getting so much better...... Solid S+ sounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Also, TT shows a lot of rain where on WxBell it's snow. Looks wonky on TT for whatever reason. Yes it's all how they are interpreting the profiles. here N of CLT it's only marginal at the surface... a decent precip rate and it's all snow easily.. and based on the strength of that ULL there should be while the low is passing under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Para gfs is a huge hit for western NC wow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Looks like 00z GFS v16 has snow piling up in parts of W NC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Para was weird in its evolution but nevertheless, shows foot + in western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Para gfs is a huge hit for western NC wow!! Good grief. Over a foot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Yeah, the parallel GFS shows how the ULL will keep the precip over the area longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Good grief. Over a foot here. How much mount airy nc way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 0z Para GFS, no snow here... but big totals to the west Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Nevermind the snow maps, the setup is there for a pretty widespread event for NC/VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Canadian is a bit north with its surface reflection from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC slingshots the wave into E TN so it gets snow farther north into VA, but also into W NC UKMet tracks the wave like the GFS brothers...from N MS to Cape Hatteras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Nevermind the snow maps, the setup is there for a pretty widespread event for NC/VA Yeah, absolutely what we need to focus on. Everyone's just excited because it's been so long. WxTwitter going bonkers with huge dreams for the upcoming pattern and us weenies are hungry. We have a setup, details will follow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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