kvegas-wx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 All these models giving my farm in Stuart VA a mini-jackpot of 6-7" makes me think I will be working from there come Friday morning instead of Kernersville. Either way the trends for the Triad have no where to go but up after the 18z NAM played reverse psychology on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z RGEM was a step in the right direction.... does anyone know what the Eps mean looks like? Did it increase or decrease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Fun fact- The elephant in the room is that BL temps are pretty terrible for this event - the main difference with the RGEM is that it's totally colder; not really much else going on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 NAM was... not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: NAM was... not good It was the Nah’m. Gave me 0.6” QPF at 12z run and 0.0” QPF at QPF run. ZERO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS a little better this time for around Greensboro up to Danville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS is nice to Triad folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 This 18z GFS run is more my style. I’ll cash in my chips now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Clearly going to come down to where the banding sets up and who gets the rates to overcome the BL problems. The idea is pretty set at this point. It'll come down to gametime to see where. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Not sure what the GFS did different this time... but it brought the goods for Greensboro up to Danville and to the west some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: GFS is nice to Triad folks Yeah, but is that the Triad in the central part of the state or the Triad in the Piedmont or the Triad in the western foothills? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Yes, please, and thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, NCSU_Pi said: Yeah, but is that the Triad in the central part of the state or the Triad in the Piedmont or the Triad in the western foothills? Winston Salem, High Point, Greensbruh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS is slightly colder, interesting. We need it to be a little colder, but the moisture is not likely to be the problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Winston Salem, High Point, Greensbruh See I always thought it was Greensburl 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckfever2 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Does it look like places in NW Georgia like....Paulding County Dallas ga ,Polk county Floyd county Rome ga ,areas get a hit from either of these two events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: See I always thought it was Greensburl Greensburl is part of the Triangulation with Middle-Low-Point and Silo City. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The 18z GFS is definitely a better run. I only wish I could post weatherbell maps. GSO jackpots. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 We’re due for a system where everyone in the SE wins, but I’m afraid it won’t be this one. This is one of this either/or/none systems that breaks hearts within a short distance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: See I always thought it was Greensburl There's people in the area that would like you to think of it as Greensbrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Para GFS is nice too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Afternoon disco from GSP: Quote Broad high pressure to our north will help to lock the cold air mass into the region. As a result, the mountains will be predominately snow through the event, except perhaps during the onset of precipitation. Further east into the Piedmont it`s more up in the air. It seems snow will prevail though north of I-40 (although a mix is possible at times) with more of a split between I-85 and I-40, with rain prevailing south of I-85 (although rain may mix with snow at times overnight even here). A slight northward trend in the model guidance suggests that a weak warm nose may press into the region sometime Friday night. This will likely act to increase precipitation rates and possibly lead to a narrow strip of sleet/freezing rain. Snow accumulations of several inches are possible across many mountain locations with this event (especially near the escarpment to southern mountains). Light accumulations are also in play east of the mountains, mainly from the foothills to I- 40 corridor, although can`t rule out light accumulations south to the I-85 corridor. That all being said this event is still several days out and winter storms are notoriously hard to predict, so stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 How does the 18z GEFS look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 One thing to point out is this is not going to blanket accumulations. This is going to be more banded and scattered I think in terms of decent amounts. It will largely be rate driven without question. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Anyone have GEFS snow totals in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone have GEFS snow totals in NC? Becoming a lot less relevant, but: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 https://imgur.com/X7KcMDp Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: https://imgur.com/X7KcMDp Not sure why this isn't translating to precip on the GFS. Most likely the model sees moisture there, but doesn't have the vertical lift to produce precipitation...say up into central VA...at least for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said: Yes, please, and thank you. One side of my yard has 6 inches but the other side gets 1! 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 18z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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