BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Several of you have really wonky perceptions of where the mountains actually are in NC. A lot of the western piedmont of North Carolina (essentially north and west of Charlotte) actually do quite well on this model run of the ECMWF-HiRes. Plus, there is a decent snow signature in a horizontal line from Hickory to Raleigh. This looks pretty good to me, with round 2 just emerging for early next week. Maybe we're counting the uwharries. There's also a small hill going into Person County. Maybe I'm still in the foothills and dont realize it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Well, this is just terrible trends for everyone outside the mountains. Seems to be a common theme the last few winters. We need an absolute perfect set up to squeeze out an inch in many places now. Could it be global warming? Does anyone know? Trends have been great for my backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Models have trended perfect for the jackpot zone to be situated along the Western nc/sc Border. Best forcing here plus cold enough mid levels and any elevation you have helps with the marginal surface temps. I could easily see places like long creek/cashiers/Brevard being the jackpot winners in this set up if the track holds. 8-12 inch totals seem reasonable here. definitley a shot for accumulating snow even down the i85 corridor in SC if that’s where the best banding sets up early Friday morning. I don’t think surface temps will be a major issue under the axis of heaviest precip. Really just depends on where that sets up and whether or not your far enough north and west to avoid the 850mb warm nose shown early Friday morning. (This warm nose goes away by 7-8am so even if it causes rain or sleet in the upstate there may still be a window of heavy snow from 8am until 10 or 11am if you’re under a heavy band). warm nose and surface temp issues look worse from Charlotte to Raleigh, imo. Gonna take some luck in that area to score accumulations but it definitely possible in the set up. (Have to be in the heavy band and that is looking like it’ll be south of Greensboro to Raleigh) plenty of time for adjustments though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 There are certain message board posters whose only purpose is to come in and say that it’ll never snow in xyz location. They do it year after year after year. I’ve done my best to block them. If you guys could avoid replying to their posts it would help me out a lot. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Bump south on this run of the 12z Euro Ens Mean...heights with the storm wave over MS/AL, heights thru Florida, and heights with the 50/50 low all bumped south 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: Bump south on this run of the 12z Euro Ens Mean...heights with the storm wave over MS/AL, heights thru Florida, and heights with the 50/50 low all bumped south Yeah, means are up about 25% in my neck of the woods. Not an awful run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Also there’s definitely some sleet soundings early Friday morning on the NAM. Looks like the changeover line will include a 10-15 mile wide band of sleet for a while at least in the upstate, (assuming the NAM is right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Bump south on this run of the 12z Euro Ens Mean...heights with the storm wave over MS/AL, heights thru Florida, and heights with the 50/50 low all bumped south And stronger. That’s been the theme of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, burrel2 said: Also there’s definitely some sleet soundings early Friday morning on the NAM. Looks like the changeover line will include a 10-15 mile wide band of sleet for a while at least in the upstate, (assuming the NAM is right). I noticed the same thing in the immediate border areas around CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I will stick with 4-8 (locally 12) in the NC mountains, 3-6 foothills, 2-4 Triad, 1-2 slushy inches east of GSO to Raleigh and add 2-4 for Rocky Mount through Virginia Beach as my second rough call. Tomorrow I will begin the maps if warranted and the chance doesn't vaporize. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Man, I am stoked to ride this one out in Banner Elk instead of Wake County. Should be fun! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: I will stick with 4-8 (locally 12) in the NC mountains, 3-6 foothills, 2-4 Triad, 1-2 slushy inches east of GSO to Raleigh and add 2-4 for Rocky Mount through Virginia Beach as my second rough call. Tomorrow I will begin the maps if warranted and the chance doesn't vaporize. What kind of totals would you say for Danville, Southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 44 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: There are certain message board posters whose only purpose is to come in and say that it’ll never snow in xyz location. They do it year after year after year. I’ve done my best to block them. If you guys could avoid replying to their posts it would help me out a lot. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming! I see what you did there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result. I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx https://t.co/hvbZNI3dcP" / Twitter Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 AccuWeather being very bullish...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I see what you did there... Clever girl! I am just a logical thinker, and I believe the likely outcome for most storms in much of NC is rain. I love snow as much as anyone else but this storm is not trending in a positive direction for many including my neck of the woods. Now back to your weenie programming :+) Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GSP first call 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: AccuWeather being very bullish... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk The SREF mean for Martinsville went from 1.81" at 9z to to 2.75" at 15z. Almost a full inch. Danville went from 1.62 to 2.63, just over a full inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The SREF Mean increased.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Quick question -- why, with so many great mets and analysis on this board -- do some post maps from media outlets? Is it just for entertainment purposes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Jamey Singleton on Twitter: "This doesn't make sense to me. But it's off the same model (GFS). The Euro does it, too. Brings the moisture and dynamics in, with nothing to show as a result. I'm not buying those snow amounts. #vawx #ncwx https://t.co/hvbZNI3dcP" / Twitter Interesting tweet from a local met here in southern VA. If he's correct, we'll see a response in the models by 0z. May have to do with convective feedback. Definitely a storm where the hires models will be super helpful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Quick question -- why, with so many great mets and analysis on this board -- do some post maps from media outlets? Is it just for entertainment purposes? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Latest SREF has me over 6 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 SREF mean is about 3.5 in HKY and 4 in AVL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Hopefully the SREF is a sign of things to come.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 A word of caution on SREFs -- a few years ago in March, SREFS had DC in for 8+, Cantore went to the National Mall -- similarly in a borderline setup with regard to BL temps. It rained. Zero snow. SREFs fail quite often. Don't get overly excited about them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: A word of caution on SREFs -- a few years ago in March, SREFS had DC in for 8+, Cantore went to the National Mall -- similarly in a borderline setup with regard to BL temps. It rained. Zero snow. SREFs fail quite often. Don't get overly excited about them. Very true, it's just another item to disect and sometimes can be a precursor to a solid NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 At this range, I'm really more interested in trends rather than the absolutes that the models are showing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, jrips27 said: GSP first call I appreciate how GSP is willing to put out call map often a day or two ahead of the other nearby offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Well the NAM is south of 12Z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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