Grayman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Jwisephoto said: I mean NC is still doing really well... I mean I don’t get it. Some guys post boom then 20 minutes later it’s over. Weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, burrel2 said: It looks like an area between Nashville and Chattanooga is getting buried right now. They had no warnings up a few hours ago... wwa now. Buried? The highest reports I’ve seen are under 2”. It is falling a low elevations though. That surprised me. I figured it would only accumulate on the Cumberland Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Grayman said: Cliff driving weenie alert in 3 2 1 Til the next cliff diving, good night and good bye everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, Grayman said: I mean I don’t get it. Some guys post boom then 20 minutes later it’s over. Weird Imperfect model guidance = irrational exhuberance. Real time obs = crushed souls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Imperfect model guidance = irrational exhuberance. Real time obs = crushed souls Also upper level lows are known to do this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Avdave said: Is there any ground truth to that? I don't see even a dusting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I mean i was expecting the start in Hickory at about 1-2am.... and being done about 1-3pm... now some show snow til 10-11pm in my area... not much i can complain about right now in a nowcasting situation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 WSOC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: WSOC Those colors make no sense.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 It’s puking snow here. It’s sticking like paste. 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Comparing current radar returns at 11pm versus the 0z 3k nam at same time looks pretty darn close to the same.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 WGHP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 WXII 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: WXII What?? This system has JUST STARTED PEOPLE! omg, relax and let the dynamics do their thing! It's going to be ok. Her totals map sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes Yeah this isn't looking good and we started the event a few degrees warmer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage Agreed and there is quite a dry slot rolling through as we speak. Look the lower level WV on College of Du Page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/7/2021 at 9:30 AM, magpiemaniac said: This is a friendly reminder that those of us east of I-77 are going to have to be really patient tomorrow. There will be some cliff diving by lunchtime on Friday, but we will get something out of this by Friday night. Just hang in there. I’ll repeat this again. Our best shot is this afternoon and evening. I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Triangle folks this is your only hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Triangle folks this is your only hope: I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. so its possible this morning we weren't far enough west and this evening we won't be far enough east...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said: I’ll repeat this again. Our best shot is this afternoon and evening. I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can. 17 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. I agree, but the warning level snows were only going to verify if this front end produced in the triad area. Outside of that it’s been what occurs with the ULL passage and deform band all along, nothing has changed there. It will still snow from west to East this afternoon and I agree, there will be some surprises. But the triad is likely north of this feature if overnight and this morning’s modeling verify. These ULL scenarios are very tricky as they can be so localized. Someone will get 3 inches and the other side of the county sees white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. To be honest this has behaved right on que for my location. Im suprised at Mt Airy switching over, struggling. Northern/central NC Mountains are gonna over perform no doubt. Most ,almost all the accums east of the mtns, definitely foothill region was to come from the backside band latter this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Hmmm, I thought the morning phase was supposed to deliver more to Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 hours ago, davenc said: What?? This system has JUST STARTED PEOPLE! omg, relax and let the dynamics do their thing! It's going to be ok. Her totals map sucks! This is what we do around here. We whine a quarter way through the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: To be honest this has behaved right on que for my location. Im suprised at Mt Airy switching over, struggling. Northern/central NC Mountains are gonna over perform no doubt. Most ,almost all the accums east of the mtns, definitely foothill region was to come from the backside band latter this evening. You've been around here long enough to know who is gonna pull this whining during the event stuff. I feel like everything is on schedule here, I am a little disappointed I didnt get more mood flakes this morning but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Hmmm, I thought the morning phase was supposed to deliver more to Triad I wasn’t expecting much before noon, but even if we manage a sloppy inch late this afternoon or early evening, this has been a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now