Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Lawd. I’m gonna have to go get some stretchy pants on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Crawling again and the mountains getting pounded Very weird run. It’s like the moisture separated and then just stayed over the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Lawd. I’m gonna have to go get some stretchy pants on. Dude it reminds me of a tropical system like you said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Grayman said: Very weird run. It’s like the moisture separated and then just stayed over the mountains. I am starting to think the NAM is drastically off. I believe moisture will be there in the Carolinas. Just a temp issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Dude it reminds me of a tropical system like you said It really does. Just rotates the bands through our area for hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 After 8 to 10 inches of paste it turns to rain before ending here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I am starting to think the NAM is drastically off. I believe moisture will be there in the Carolinas. Just a temp issue. Yes , something was just weird about that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The 3K looks a lot better than the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Over 1.5 QPF here compared to almost nothing earlier lol consistency 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 3k NAM is much colder and has snow much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I’m ground zero for snow on the latest GFS and Euro and “QPF zero” on the latest NAM. What a wild ride. 0.0” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Over 1.5 QPF here compared to almost nothing earlier lol consistency It’s a joke, like throwing a damn dart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Over 1.5 QPF here compared to almost nothing earlier lol consistency Over 0.0 QPF here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 There will be a struggle to model where the deformation feature sets up. That could be what the NAM is attempting to resolve. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Over 0.0 QPF here Me, too. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It that verifies you will have some very lucky folks but the whining thread would be a epic meltdown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Grayman said: It that verifies you will have some very lucky folks but the whining thread would be a epic meltdown Count me in on the "whining." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Sharp gradient with snow and none in Piedmont areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Count me in on the "whining." I’m not in the game at all . In South central NC. This was too far north for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grayman said: It that verifies you will have some very lucky folks but the whining thread would be a epic meltdown Half of my county gets nothing and the other half gets almost a foot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SUNYGRAD said: Sharp gradient with snow and none Yep. You don’t see the sleet returns though on the 3k like the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, lilj4425 said: Half of my county gets nothing and the other half gets almost a foot. That would be a chase for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On the bright side, I can drive 45 minutes to see 4” of snow and return home in time to grill. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Some thoughts: - I would not rely on the 12km NAM precip shield depiction. Something I first noticed tracking that early Jan 2018 coastal is that it is pretty terrible and inconsistent at rendering these things, with a lot of features that aren't supported by synoptics/surface features. I think they're fun to look at but I don't take them very seriously. I trust the 3km depiction more. - Flipside: I think somebody is going to get dry-slotted and shafted. Don't know who, but it's just the nature of these transfers of lows from inland to the coast. - 3km NAM is showing the "splotchy" nature of the precip shield really well- that's how it will turn out! It will be feast or famine! One lucky locale may even see a little thundersnow, not out of the question! Don't know who. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Some thoughts: - I would not rely on the 12km NAM precip shield depiction. Something I first noticed tracking that early Jan 2018 coastal is that it is pretty terrible and inconsistent at rendering these things, with a lot of features that aren't supported by synoptics/surface features. I think they're fun to look at but I don't take them very seriously. I trust the 3km depiction more. - Flipside: I think somebody is going to get dry-slotted and shafted. Don't know who, but it's just the nature of these transfers of lows from inland to the coast. - 3km NAM is showing the "splotchy" nature of the precip shield really well- that's how it will turn out! It will be feast or famine! One lucky locale may even see a little thundersnow, not out of the question! Don't know who. I agree with your mention of dry slot and any transfer. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming 00Z operational Euro depicts event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Difference on the south side of the storm in North GA between the 3km and 12km is stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 It that verifies you will have some very lucky folks but the whining thread would be a epic meltdown Yup. My county , Rutherford, is split from 8”+ to less than 1”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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