Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 No matter what happens the rest of the NAM run, the changes early in the run are exactly what you want to see if you wanna see snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Its in central Alabama vs Southern Bama last run, should be good for mountain areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Northern Alabama getting hit at 63 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Tennessee is doing well this run, precip having trouble making it into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looks like I was wrong, not a great run. Light precip amounts and spotty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: No matter what happens the rest of the NAM run, the changes early in the run are exactly what you want to see if you wanna see snow. If you live in the mountains (and west) perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Looks like I was wrong, not a great run. Light precip amounts and spotty Great trend at h5 level. Surface will follow suit if that look continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The east side and west side moisture gets split apart again instead of staying together , so you have a gap in the middle... not sure why it's doing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Some of you experts can weigh in on this , but does it seem like the GFS is on to something, by not being as wide spread event and just scattered? Or would you lean more toward the EURO/EPS , with it being more widespread? I don't know if it's "on to something" per se; this is the nature of a lot of these ULLs that roll through. There are going to be competing forces within the feature that promote both rising air (more precip) and sinking air (less precip) which is the reason for the "splotchy" look on snow maps. As for the Euro, the more consistent snow map strikes me as just a difference in how the snow map is calculated and not the nature of the precip. Lastly, as a general rule, EPS will always have that smoothed-out look because it's an average of 51 different members. Those members themselves may be splotchy... but together they're look very uniform. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I do like the look of that band setting up over WNC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 This thing is crawling on the NAM. Western NC finally starting to rack up late in the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 @oconeexman and @burrel2 getting nammed at 72. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Still not fully there but a big improvements on the NAM from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: This thing is crawling on the NAM. Western NC finally starting to rack up late in the run Drops about 7 inches at your homestead. I still don’t buy that precip split before it cranks up. Probably ticks up in subsequent runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Drops about 7 inches at your homestead. I still don’t buy that precip split before it cranks up. Probably ticks up in subsequent runs. I hope you are right... if it wasn't for the split in precip it would be widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 That's some serious NAMage over the southern foothills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 With the flow from the SE I don't think it's too far fetched to think areas from Brevard to Lake Lure will rack up like the 12Z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: With the flow from the SE I don't think it's too far fetched to think areas from Brevard to Lake Lure will rack up like the 12Z shows. Same sort of concept as a tropical storm, totally agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 .25 QPF here this run with .85 just 45 miles away in Siler City. Totally cool with that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wow said: That's some serious NAMage over the southern foothills Been to long since a good NAMing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 09Z SREF mean is up to 3-5 inches across WNC. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 SREF Mean is close to 2" here , with many members above it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I don't know if it's "on to something" per se; this is the nature of a lot of these ULLs that roll through. There are going to be competing forces within the feature that promote both rising air (more precip) and sinking air (less precip) which is the reason for the "splotchy" look on snow maps. As for the Euro, the more consistent snow map strikes me as just a difference in how the snow map is calculated and not the nature of the precip. Lastly, as a general rule, EPS will always have that smoothed-out look because it's an average of 51 different members. Those members themselves may be splotchy... but together they're look very uniform. Great stuff and thanks for dropping in time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z ICON similar to 6z , decent event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z RGEM a little bit better than 6z , few inches into southern VA... still snowing at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 RGEM looks really good for the piedmont/mountains. Slower than the rest of guidance, but pretty wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Jonathan said: Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend. I believe u are right, but we don't have to worry about sun angle, cause it's still low, but Temps at the ground would be better at night or in the morning of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 We will not know what’s going to happen in any one area 2 hours before the event is poised to begin... much less this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend. Yeah, it seems do be drier with the initial surge of moisture, but then the low kinda backs in towards the coast, allowing moisture to back-build. Could be good for ensuring some snowfall across the board, with less WAA and more consistent banding (after a potential initial thump) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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