kvegas-wx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 NAM always sniffs out the warm nose. If its hinting at it early in the run, I'll stay keen to watch that over the next 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Out to hr48 on the GFS and the heights with the wave are a little south thru TX and the heights off VA are pressing down south a little more...that kind of combo says it's likely to be like the last run or a little south...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looked at the sounding for AKH at hour 84. other than one layer at .1, the sounding looks okay. You could ask for a bigger DGZ but it starts at 600MB. Probably some 6:1 ratios with what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS ends up being a little weaker with the wave this run and precip shield doesn't look like it's going to get up into VA...and a lot warmer than NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Yea that run sucked. Wave was weak and precip wasn't widespread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Ouchie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z GFS was a whiff... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 RGEM had a 3” stripe from the triad over to NW Durham county with probably another 2-3” to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I have seen this many times before, one model mostly sticking to one solution and it ends up being right. Happens a lot with winter in NC and tropical systems in the Atlantic. Curious to see the Para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS opened up the wave and gave up. It's gonna happen in this range. Everyone remain seated. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 I know we have to acknowledge it’s existence but to be honest, the GFS has been so awful that I treat it like the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Maybe by the time the GFS gets to v50 it'll be a semi-reliable weather model. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Wow said: GFS opened up the wave and gave up. It's gonna happen in this range. Everyone remain seated. It’s been so awful that I don’t know how people can be too up or too down about whatever solution it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS v16 looks similar to previous run. It's stronger with the wave than the GFS reg...bowling ball closed low running west to east thru TN...farther north than NAM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, griteater said: GFS v16 looks similar to previous run. It's stronger with the wave than the GFS reg...bowling ball closed low running west to east thru TN...farther north than NAM track Any snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 verbatim the snow is confined to the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS Para better than the OP but a little warmer east of the mountains.... still some accumulation, but mountains get hit good that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just gonna leave this here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Just gonna leave this here The GFS Para is just as bad as the OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Oof...it basically cut QPF in half over Western Carolinas and N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS v16 Snowfall Trend Loop 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, griteater said: GFS v16 Snowfall Trend Loop Might as well flip a coin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Might as well flip a coin I would like to see that trend animation with the Euro after tonight's run. I feel like it has been more consistent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: I would like to see that trend animation with the Euro after tonight's run. I feel like it has been more consistent Yeah, I’d also add the GFSE and ECENS because they have all been more consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z CMC is a decent hit for NW NC , Southwest and Southern VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS v16 Snowfall Trend Loop Overall theme is less snow for many including many in NW NC. Both on the current GFS and Para. CMC continuing this trend as well. Much warmer and less moisture overall. Mountains is the place to be with this system in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 There’s a QPF cut this run on the GFSE by about 1/3rd so while there’s less on the means, I’m fairly sure that’s a product of not warmth but just less QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z CMC is a decent hit for NW NC , Southwest and Southern VA This is actually a better run for the CMC considering where it's been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: This is actually a better run for the CMC considering where it's been right? Not a bad run , it's definitely not wonky like the GFS Camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 It’s funny that the RGEM is much more bullish on this event. Is it sniffing out a colder atmosphere than it’s big brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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