WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: It is looking less and less likely that central NC gets a good snow from this system. Good luck to those in NW SC, NC, and southern VA. The Triad is central NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Wow said: ..until the 0z models come in There’s a trend every six hours. I don’t understand, we have the best GEFS and EPS mean we’ve had since jump with this thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Raleigh/Durham. The trends NW and warmer have started in my opinion. If you’re south of 40 in Wake, I’d be a little concerned but that’s just geography and climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: There’s a trend every six hours. I don’t understand, we have the best GEFS and EPS mean we’ve had since jump with this thing. In most of NC you want to see the storm north and trending south as we start closing in, instead of south in the GOM and going north each run. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 At this point , the GEFS and EPS have good looks... we will see what the 0z suites say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 #2 CIPS analog is 1/3/2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: #2 CIPS analog is 1/3/2002. Just without the frigid air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: #2 CIPS analog is 1/3/2002. Was in Boone for this one and as you can see it was not that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z EPS CONTROL & MEAN, definitely a bump up in totals... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I think western NC will be the big winner from Brevard to Blowing Rock on the escarpment. SW VA should do well too, I think it will nudge north slightly the next few days as per usual. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 I’ll take my chances with this look four days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I’ll take my chances with this look four days out. I'll take my chances on that to! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 hours ago, griteater said: Bump north on the GFS v16 this run You think we get the 850 low and surface low perfectly stacked right as its heading off the coast? That has to be what keeps showing this deform band signature bouncing around central NC. Those rates for a few hrs will do the trick covering up the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Watching to see if NAO goes more negative . Also Placement of high and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I’d settle for just 1-2 inches around here and seeing it fall during the day. Small victories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z NAM digging the wave further SW at 33 hrs... More like the 6z run and closer to the 18z ICON . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Wow said: 0z NAM digging the wave further SW at 33 hrs... More like the 6z run and closer to the 18z ICON . Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 SREF plumes are about to be in range and are pretty paltry through 12Z Friday even for Asheville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: SREF plumes are about to be in range and are pretty paltry through 12Z Friday even for Asheville SREFs are often garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: SREF plumes are about to be in range and are pretty paltry through 12Z Friday even for Asheville Yeah they look pretty awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: SREF plumes are about to be in range and are pretty paltry through 12Z Friday even for Asheville Heavy stuff still in north Georgia at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Heavy stuff still in north Georgia at the end of the run. That's good to know... must not be as quick as other guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Heavy stuff still in north Georgia at the end of the run. The NAM suite is about 6 to 8 hours slower than other modeling so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The NAM suite is about 6 to 8 hours slower than other modeling so far Hmmmm I wonder if that would be bad or good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Hmmmm I wonder if that would be bad or good.... I'm 50% sure it'll be one or the other. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Bowling ball incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The NAM is digging... let's see where it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Hope that neutral tilt doesn't get pulled more north than before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z GFS is a paste job. Looking at soundings. Most of NC pushing towards SC. Deep moisture up to 350-400 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Out to hr60, NAM looks a little south but it’s also a little more amplified on its east side, so it may be a wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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