strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Much more down into the southern foothills and the upstate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Definitely a good run for the Mountains , with lighter amounts east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 That run definitely sucked for the Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, griteater said: So what makes that NW shield stall and blank the triangle? Weird evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 With the SE flow from the low the eastern escarpment will get pounded. Mt Mitchell and the Blue Ridge will maximize amounts due to the orientation of the flow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Triad still seems to be in the game for a little something not matter how this system evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Contrary to the 2009 upper low, the eastern Escarpment appears like it’s going to be colder from 900-950mb thanks to easterly flow causing adiabatic cooling. The eastern escarpment could jackpot in this scenario while places to the East deal with a thicker boundary layer and more questionable 850mb temps. It’s early but I’m liking the zone from northern Pickens/Greenville county in South Carolina up to hickory/wilkesboro and points west of there in NC for the jackpot zone if the ull tracks as advertised. timing also appears good for this area with heaviest precipitation occurring from 3am-10am or so. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: That run definitely sucked for the Triangle I’d rather that heavy snow be around Pageland and Rock Hill right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Contrary to the 2009 upper low, the eastern Escarpment appears like it’s going to be colder from 900-950mb thanks to easterly flow causing adiabatic cooling. The eastern escarpment could jackpot in this scenario while places to the East deal with a thicker boundary layer and more questionable 850mb temps. It’s early but I’m liking the zone from northern Pickens/Greenville county in South Carolina up to hickory/wilkesboro and points west of there in NC for the jackpot zone if the ull tracks as advertised. timing also appears good for this area with heaviest precipitation occurring from 3am-10am or so. Kinda reminds me of the timeframe 2009 happened around Home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So what makes that NW shield stall and blank the triangle? Weird evolution Here is the 850 low and temperatures. Warmth wins the battle on this run in E NC. For S VA, it's a matter of the 50/50 low and it's associated appendages pressing down into the Mid-Atlantic coast that forces the wave to slide west to east. Where do we go from here though? Don't think we are going to see much in the way of more southward movement with the track and these things almost always tick north closer to game time, so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Here is the 850 low and temperatures. Warmth wins the battle on this run in E NC. For S VA, it's a matter of the 50/50 low and it's associated appendages pressing down into the Mid-Atlantic coast that forces the wave to slide east to west. Where do we go from here though? Don't think we are going to see much in the way of more southward movement with the track and these things almost always tick north closer to game time, so Exactly where I want it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 ^ Had to fix the image on the 850 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Timing not the best for Triangle - east. Mid-day - evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Still no legit cold to be found anywhere. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 If the GFSv16 is correct, the cold air being shown is pretty text book cross polar flow. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: If the GFSv16 is correct, the cold air being shown is pretty text book cross polar flow. TW It's definitely coming. We need to get our shots in now because I could see this rapidly turning into an I-10 winter if we can accumulate some cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Timing not the best for Triangle - east. Mid-day - evening. The good news is the means actually improved(especially from say the airport west). 3" mean for almost all of Orange County plus NW Durham County. 3.5" mean for BUY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Bump south with the wave here on the 12z Euro Ens Mean (trend loop of last 2 runs) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 58 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Contrary to the 2009 upper low, the eastern Escarpment appears like it’s going to be colder from 900-950mb thanks to easterly flow causing adiabatic cooling. The eastern escarpment could jackpot in this scenario while places to the East deal with a thicker boundary layer and more questionable 850mb temps. It’s early but I’m liking the zone from northern Pickens/Greenville county in South Carolina up to hickory/wilkesboro and points west of there in NC for the jackpot zone if the ull tracks as advertised. timing also appears good for this area with heaviest precipitation occurring from 3am-10am or so. You just had to wake me up from the dead didn’t you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Please- don't worry about how a Euro run only gives table scraps to the triangle. These are fun things to gawk at but right now I would focus on what the globals are good at (synoptic track and larger scale features). Overall, some nice trends today with the ULL continuing to nudge south. I will say, you don't want the vort to pass too far south, or else the best dynamics (and heaviest precip) stay to our south as well. Let's get a few hi-res cycles closer to the event under our belt before we start a pity party for the triangle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 One inch or more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Nice to see it hasn’t disappeared I don’t know how much further south it will go, but I’d like another 50ish miles for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, griteater said: Bump south with the wave here on the 12z Euro Ens Mean (trend loop of last 2 runs) Does it still run west due east like the op? Let us know the exit point off the coast.thanks in advance Grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Accuweather is honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Does it still run west due east like the op? Let us know the exit point off the coast.thanks in advance Grit. Yep, here is 850 low and Sfc on EPS Mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 53 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The good news is the means actually improved(especially from say the airport west). 3" mean for almost all of Orange County plus NW Durham County. 3.5" mean for BUY. Can you share the 12z EPS snow mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Ice Man Cometh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z NAM a little slower with the ULL progression but it's still digging well south.. The base of it nearly to New Orleans @ 66 hrs. Sfc low over MBY at 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 NAM about 50 miles south of of 12z position of sfc low .. in the gulf now, S of Mobile @ 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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