franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z gfs is a paste bomb! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 This thing is going to far south... via gfs, no snow per this run in northern NC, Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: This thing is going to far south... via gfs, no snow per this run in northern NC, Southern VA Think that was sorta established the other day. So much blocking to the north, no where for it to go but southbound and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: That’s a sweet little shift south I like seeing that, too, from this far out...because it usually ends up north. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z GFS v16 is also a touch south at 500mb from last run out to hr90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Oh wow that was an absolute perfect run for the N GA mountains... Heavy deformation band snow all in the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: 12z gfs is a paste bomb! Mmmm...not really..only for a few..dont believe any model that shows the high Smokies getting less snow than Macon and Clay County..That has NEVER happened that I am aware of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z Para , has more moisture on the NW side compared to Regular Gfs , produces heavy snow northern/central NC, Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z GFS v16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie_Williams Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I’m not buying the light precip, assuming WAA is under modeled, there should be more frontogenesis too. Thermals are the main issue, although I do think that Griteater’s precip map isn’t that far off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Well let's hope the GFS has improved with their newer version lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Gfs Para with a bullseye of about 17" near Greensboro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z ParaSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Even the new version shows splotches of heavy accumulation and is a step down from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Even the new version shows splotches of heavy accumulation and is a step down from previous runs Yeah it looks more scattered than widespread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: I like seeing that, too, from this far out...because it usually ends up north. LOL. Exactly The gfs v16 has reeled me in.......just enough......lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 We're going to struggle with BL temps in the Triangle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 No reason to run any more models. Let's just stick with this one and call it a day. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Mmmm...not really..only for a few..dont believe any model that shows the high Smokies getting less snow than Macon and Clay County..That has NEVER happened that I am aware of It's happened before. The best dynamics and lift is in N GA, the southern mtns, and the far upstate of SC. At least per the 12z gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: It's happened before. The best dynamics and lift is in N GA, the southern mtns, and the far upstate of SC. At least per the 12z gfs. Can we just make it a paste bomb across the board... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: We're going to struggle with BL temps in the Triangle I think south of 40, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Can we just make it a paste bomb across the board... lol If I could control the weather. Unfortunately, I can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Not a lot of change out to 90 on the CMC.... maybe a touch south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Low just north of Charleston @96 on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z CMC further north than other guidance so far, a decent hit for southern VA , Northern and northeastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC is a slow mover...24hr snow from the storm in the mountains, then a little upslope. Wave track was a little wacky...ArkLaTex to Nashville, then due east to Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I'm not liking the borderline temp profiles. Seems pretty rate dependent. But, a good chance we see some snow for some of the storm at least, but has that miller-B screw-job kind of look, where the moisture dries up and the cold air never really gets established. Chance of an inch in Greensboro: 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 32 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This thing is going to far south... via gfs, no snow per this run in northern NC, Southern VA My fear all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, griteater said: CMC is a slow mover...24hr snow from the storm in the mountains, then a little upslope. Wave track was a little wacky...ArkLaTex to Nashville, then due east to Cape Hatteras Gonna bet that track doesnt happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, bargainmusic said: No reason to run any more models. Let's just stick with this one and call it a day. Any model that nails the Raleigh snow hole so perfectly has to verify 100% of the time I’d think 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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