BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wow said: With the cutoff ULL I'd expect to see a lot more precip build back from CLT to RDU but you're likely not going to see that get picked up on the models until we're within 48-60 hrs Yes. I can remember that happening in 2004, 2009 and 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC is a Widespread Major Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 So far , the ICON is out to lunch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 0z UKMET with a widespread snowstorm for NW NC , and southern/central VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 There's a whole lot going on with respect to the strength and track of the wave based on how it interacts with the upstream kicker wave coming into Colorado behind it and the configuration and strength of the downstream 50/50 low with various spokes rotating around it (pretty typical though with model wars and how they are handling pieces at 500mb). For 00z, the UKMet is well south with the track of the wave thru GA like the GFS v16, but the wave is strong and it has more amplitude, which can be seen by the 558 height line reaching up just to the south of Long Island. Wave on the GFS's doesn't have as much amplitude there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Euro looks very similar to 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Ooh la la.. still snowing some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I 40 corridor even into Eastern NC getting it this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Tar heel classic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro looks very similar to 12Z run It looks similar to GFS v16 at 500mb, just not as strong. Spoke revolving around the 50/50 low drops due south into NY/VT, and that collapses the amplitude of the height field off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so the wave just slides east off NC. Who knows which model is correct, but the west to east slider like GFS v16 and Euro are what many in NC east of the Mtns and Foothills would want, and the more amped CMC/UKMet is what the Mtns/N Foothills/into VA would want. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Next Monday is also interesting on the Euro and another nice snow for western areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Next Monday is also interesting on the Euro but the cold seems to be retreating. Yep classic gulf low, but it warms inland...I posted the loop in the mid range thread...action picking up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS Para 6z........ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 This mornings nam run. Nicely organized cut off ULL with a surface LP near Pensacola FL. Surface reflection has a primary near Pensacola with a secondary right off Jacksonville. Very nice setup. Edit: 850lp. Near Pensacola. Secondary off of Jacksonville. Baroclinic zone right at FL/GA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 47 minutes ago, FLweather said: This mornings nam run. Nicely organized cut off ULL with a surface LP near Pensacola FL. Surface reflection has a primary near Pensacola with a secondary right off Jacksonville. Very nice setup. Edit: 850lp. Near Pensacola. Secondary off of Jacksonville. Baroclinic zone right at FL/GA line. As you know, that'll get 'er done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Huge differences in the regular GFS and PARA... wonder which one is right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: As you know, that'll get 'er done. Can't ask for a better setup that. Once the secondary gets going. Precip will be pulled NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Huge differences in the regular GFS and PARA... wonder which one is right.. Gfs just looks wonky right now... huge differences between the 0z and the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 GSP overnight long term discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 am EST Monday: The latest numerical model solutions feature decent agreement on a strong, closed ~545 dm 500 mb low center spinning slowly east across the Deep South by Thursday night. Deep moisture will return from the west through the day on Thursday ahead of this system but with the best upper jet support east of the low crossing the region Thursday night. The associated 850 mb low center track is currently forecast to pass just southeast of the western Carolinas on Friday, and this track is a classical setup for heavy snow potential in and near the southern Appalachians. With the surface wave likely redeveloping and deepening along the southeast coast, a deformation zone well northwest of the surface to 850 mb low centers will likely produce strong frontogenetical forcing over our region at times. Any banding of the precipitation could lay down very heavy snowfall in affected areas, especially if the forcing pivots from west-east to north-south as the low pulls away. For now, will keep precipitation types as rain versus snow, but there could certainty be some mixed ptypes issues with this system, especially on the onset side of the things. An HWO mention for at least the mountains is certainty worthy and any increase in confidence will require a mention out along I-40 as well with below guidance temperatures featured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GSP overnight long term discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...As of 320 am EST Monday: The latest numerical model solutionsfeature decent agreement on a strong, closed ~545 dm 500mb low center spinning slowly east across the Deep South by Thursdaynight. Deep moisture will return from the west through the day onThursday ahead of this system but with the best upper jet supporteast of the low crossing the region Thursday night. Theassociated 850 mb low center track is currently forecast to passjust southeast of the western Carolinas on Friday, and this trackis a classical setup for heavy snow potential in and near thesouthern Appalachians. With the surface wave likely redeveloping anddeepening along the southeast coast, a deformation zonewell northwest of the surface to 850 mb low centers will likelyproduce strong frontogenetical forcing over our region at times. Anybanding of the precipitation could lay down very heavy snowfall inaffected areas, especially if the forcing pivots from west-east tonorth-south as the low pulls away. For now, will keep precipitationtypes as rain versus snow, but there could certainty be some mixedptypes issues with this system, especially on the onset side of thethings. An HWO mention for at least the mountains is certaintyworthy and any increase in confidence will require a mention outalong I-40 as well with below guidance temperatures featured.The mention of heavy snow several days out is always nice. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Can anyone speak on how the 6z EURO and 6z EPS were looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Hard to ignore the ICON and GFS showing nothing much. I think the potential is there, but I would like to see all models showing the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Hard to ignore the ICON and GFS showing nothing much. I think the potential is there, but I would like to see all models showing the goods. It’s very easy to ignore the GFS considering the model verification scores. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 6z EPS mean increased here to 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 6z EPS mean increased here to 3”. Comparison map of 0z vs 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 6z EPS mean increased here to 3”. Up to 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Praying for some shifting for west Georgia chances LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Surprised no one commented on the 12z NAM and where it was heading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one commented on the 12z NAM and where it was heading... It looks to have a nice result with the position of the upper low and surface reflection. Moisture looks a bit meager at 84 but should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one commented on the 12z NAM and where it was heading... yeah hard to say where it goes from there but certainly the players are on the field at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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