BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 dude! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I will take my chances with that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wow said: dude! It’s time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Well this is doomed from the start 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I will take my chances with that sounding. Need that sw to dive more. DGZ is relatively dry. About the only thing that you will get is rain with a few mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Welp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 I’m sorry that is focused on the mid Atlantic but you get totals with that map and not the others. The non mean map is also 10:1 which is very optimistic. I’d guess 7:1. Still if you half it, it’s a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Well I'm hopeful for this one here in the NE GA mountains while atmittedly concerned about the borderline temps. I'm just happy that what comes after this over the coming weeks should only get better, and we're not staring at this marginal event as our only foreseeable hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Welp Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Wow IT wont be 10:1 ratios either so cut those totals back some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Avdave said: IT wont be 10:1 ratios either so cut those totals back some Still... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie_Williams Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Even know that these snow maps look nice, don’t be surprised if there’s a lot more sleet than modeled due to the low level warm nose. Obviously if ULL shifted south, it would as well. I’m optimistic, but not married to our chances. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, Ollie_Williams said: Even know that these snow maps look nice, don’t be surprised if there’s a lot more sleet than modeled due to the low level warm nose. Obviously if ULL shifted south, it would as well. I’m optimistic, but not married to our chances. That's the thing about it. Most of the soundings indicate atm very little sleet probabilities. Its either rain or snow. Either the surface supports a snow sounding and upper levels too dry or upper levels support cold enough to but boundary layers too warm. Not much in between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, FLweather said: That's the thing about it. Most of the soundings indicate atm very little sleet probabilities. Its either rain or snow. Either the surface supports a snow sounding and upper levels too dry or upper levels support cold enough to but boundary layers too warm. Not much in between Reminds me of the late 80s storms. very thin transition line . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Reminds me of the late 80s storms. very thin transition line . A ULL will almost deliver. Just depends where you are. As long as the mid level and surface level not spaced out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 0z NAM @ 84. This looks promising. Sfc low over MSY. Pretty nice phase setting up and with the low heights over the N Atlantic it can't pull it up north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Wow said: This looks promising. Sfc low over MSY What is that from? Looks like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, FLweather said: What is that from? Looks like the nam top right corner will verify that 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 What I was mentioning about nam earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL. 0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south. Should be a classic miller A track there. I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 And... the ICON says what storm...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: And... the ICON says what storm...? It’s amazing how bad the ICON has become. Pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Per usual, the S VA crew will be praying for a NW trend to commence over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It’s amazing how bad the ICON has become. Pitiful. It disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: It disappeared Yeah I was saying how bad the ICON as a model has become. It’s awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CustomWX Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 This is legitimately kind of funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The ICON is a pile of Scheisse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, Wow said: It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL. 0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south. Should be a classic miller A track there. I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place! I will take a hard pass on that analog. See that downsloping area with no snow cover? That's MBY. Agonizing storm after multiple awful winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I hope the other models come in better than that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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