Obs and nowcast Sun 9A Jan 3 - 6A Mon Jan 4 2021

[snywx]

28 w/ lgt snow falling

[wdrag]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this first batch is almost over here in NJ - what comes after this ? radar is empty

Look to development  in central PA...that will expand east northeast become significant for much of forum late today-this eve. 

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, dWave said:

Rain..with an occasional wet snow flake mixed in the Bronx..around eastern end of pelham pkwy

I’m right by Bronx border and westchester and it’s all frozen in the sky, coating on car tops but otherwise wet on the ground 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 4 św : 0.2" 935A-1015A. snów had diminished. 29.7 F. Treated roads wet.   Even tho very little on radar,  very light snow continues (snow made below the -12 to 18C saturated ideal dendritic zone).   Track this area of lift moving eve from w PA on satellite... thats a way to witness what should unfold late today. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=13&length=24

[stormskeptic]

55 minutes ago, stormskeptic said:

Snow started about 10 minutes ago. Quickly became heavy with large flakes. Ground white already. Livingston, NJ Essex Co. 

Almost stopped now. Got a quick inch. 

[rgwp96]

Was nice while it lasted ,  just under an inch here in butler nj  .  Edit (.8 to be exact)

[Northof78]

1st batch done, was a nice burst with essentially 100% snow, 0.8”

[HVSnowLover]

Mainly sleet now, didn’t even think sleet would be a precip type with this storm 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Had a few sleet pellets but mostly rain on the south shore. Heading to the uws later today for snow removal standby (not going to turn down the OT despite the fact that it will likely be a non event)

[uncle W]

flakes still falling in bergen nj...

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[weathermedic]

Started out as some sleet mixed with rain but quickly went to rain along the south shore of Brooklyn. Of course NYC sanitation was salting the highways.

[wdrag]

some of the 1+" snow reports this morning... so far. 

[binbisso]

Snowed for about 30 minutes with some sleet mixed in at the end a covering on the roofs cars and grass. 

[dWave]

17 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I’m right by Bronx border and westchester and it’s all frozen in the sky, coating on car tops but otherwise wet on the ground 

Are you toward the Yonkers/Riverdale side? I would be surpised to have all snow there vs Co op city/Pelham, LI sound side.

I did go over to all snow for a short time but now it light snow/sleet/drizzle. No acclumation.

[HVSnowLover]

Seems like batch one on and out quick or maybe it changed to light rain and that’s why it doesn’t seem it’s doing anything outside 

 

just as I say that now I hear pingling 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, dWave said:

Are you toward the Yonkers/Riverdale side? I would be surpised to have all snow there vs Co op/Pelham, LI sound side.

I did go over to all snow for a short time but now it light snow/sleet/drizzle. No acclu

Yea closer to Riverdale/Yonkers side. The sleet/snow was short lived here too. It’s a light mix now. 

[gravitylover]

The first few random flakes are falling now. 

[wdrag]

Not the best of news... but generally speaking, this is the 12z SPC HREF outlook through 7AM Monday.  Just continues to look like a disappointment east and northeast of Hartford. This may be wrong but I have to account for the constancy of the signal.  FWIW... the 00z/3 HREF missed the stripe of 1" down near RDG/ABE. So, it's not over but I think most of the decent action next 18 hours is w CT, westward and maybe North through east through sse of ORH.

Meanwhile we may be impressed by snowfall rates in PA from near IPT to AVP and the Catskills later today. 

[donsutherland1]

At around 11 am, there was a burst of large snowflakes and sleet in and around Larchmont, NY. The precipitation quickly transitioned to all sleet and a mixture of sleet and rain. Before then, it produced some scattered coatings on colder surfaces. The large flakes of snow melted almost on contact with the pavement.

[gravitylover]

Well that was fun  I barely got a dusting but at least it looks (almost) like winter. No sleet just flakes. Maybe I'll get enough later to call it a coating... I think I may be too far east for this one.

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow has stopped. Measured 1" which all fell within 1 hr.

[HVSnowLover]

Sleeting again 

[donsutherland1]

Sleet has resumed falling.

[NEG NAO]

IMO the main problem with this system looking at radars is that it is just one disorganized mess right now yes there is precip in central PA but it is broken up and moving mainly northeast - as some have mentioned some of the models have not performed well with this system - how many times in the past have we been fooled by the models when a system is in progress ? Nowcasting time IMO just using radars - they will give us plenty of advanced notice of any trends developing........

[etudiant]

About an hour's worth of mix in Central Park, started between 10 and 11 am as slight graupel with rain, gradually shifted to more snow flakes, all sucked into the wet ground, just a bit of white on some of the dead leaves and the grass. MInimal precipitation. as of noontime a tenth of an inch at the outside, nothing like the half inch of rain predicted.

[eduggs]

Picked up a quick almost 1.5" in central Morris County.  Gorgeous parachutes mixed with a little sleet.  It was legitimately dumpting for an hour or so. The first batch went almost perfectly for western parts of the metro.

[wdrag]

42 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Snow has stopped. Measured 1" which all fell within 1 hr.

Wow!  Elevation made quite a difference. I had 0.2" at 740' MSL. 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wow!  Elevation made quite a difference. I had 0.2" at 740' MSL. 

Every single flake stuck right from the get go on all surfaces. Plow came by about 45 minutes ago. Roads are fine after plowing and salt/grit.

[crossbowftw3]

With what I got OTG from this morning the forecast should easily be met, curious though about if any banding can form to help bust totals high...but probably not by much given the quick movement of the Storm overall. 
 

BGM seems to think a 5-6 hour window of banding could happen

[Brian5671]

a couple sleet pellets here but it has since stopped.   Ground is mostly dry.