Obs and nowcast Sun 9A Jan 3 - 6A Mon Jan 4 2021

[North and West]

Eyeballed about an inch @MMU


.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Not the best of news... but generally speaking, this is the 12z SPC HREF outlook through 7AM Monday.  Just continues to look like a disappointment east and northeast of Hartford. This may be wrong but I have to account for the constancy of the signal.  FWIW... the 00z/3 HREF missed the stripe of 1" down near RDG/ABE. So, it's not over but I think most of the decent action next 18 hours is w CT, westward and maybe North through east through sse of ORH.

Meanwhile we may be impressed by snowfall rates in PA from near IPT to AVP and the Catskills later today. 

 

Good to highlight that. If it plays out as currently indicated, that's a pretty significant snowfall for that axis of NEPA extending into the Southern Catskills of Sullivan and Ulster counties. Could be some pockets of 6"+ I think.

I also wonder how the precip. shield will look in the overnight as the mid-level lows and vortmax finally slide through and begin converging with the surface low over the Atlantic. Will precip. gradually lighten and dissipate or could there be some moderate bands that form and rotate through the metro early tomorrow morning?  Most models are showing a little bit of lingering QPF.  But does this represent widespread light precip. or the averaging and smoothing of banded precip?

[eduggs]

There were no problems accumulating on all surfaces here at 500ft with round 1. Surface temperatures have been pretty steady today.  Maybe inching up slightly.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

There were no problems accumulating on all surfaces here at 500ft with round 1. Surface temperatures have been pretty steady today.  Maybe inching up slightly.

Same here.

[wdrag]

Well... take it for what it's worth... EC 12z cycle is on our side (snow lovers).  Expect 2-5" between 3P and 7A, most of it this evening but as others have noted with the 500MB-700-850MB trough aloft passing through, there could be a nice flake size event 1-3AM Monday, w of the CT River 

Hope the numbers attached in Kuchera come up a little for I84 e of HFD to vicinity ORH.  Just keeps looking sort of dry there and so I can understand this via the transferring process. Definitely will need snow cleanup most of the forum i80 north and especially w of the CT River before proceeding with the day.  

Okay, as fwiw...Kuchera.. may or may not be a little on the high side. I can tell you the EC SD forecast increased for our forum on the southern edge, from the previous 00z/3 EC op forecast. So,  it's all about short term now...

Watch the radar. Radarscope subtle return nw NJ is probably freezing drizzle as at our home here in Wantage (30.7F). But soon as that lift in PA arrives, we go snow, maybe a little sleet too? 132P

 

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

Watch the radar. Radarscope subtle return nw NJ is probably freezing drizzle as at our home here in Wantage (30.7F). But soon as that lift in PA arrives, we go snow, maybe a little sleet too? 132P

Good call, 32/29 here with drizzle, nothing showing on RadarScope overhead. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Very light freezing drizzle falling. 31.1°

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Good call, 32/29 here with drizzle, nothing showing on RadarScope overhead. 

Faint echoes now showing up overhead. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

33 and some light rain. The first batch dried up by the time it arrived and only saw some flurries. Radar looks pretty robust south and west and still expecting 2-4 by the time this is done. 

[snywx]

Snow starting up again.. 30F

[Tatamy]

Very light drizzle 33F

[HeadInTheClouds]

32 and steady light snow now. 

 

[IrishRob17]

24 minutes ago, snywx said:

Snow starting up again.. 30F

Going back and forth between light rain and light snow here, radar showing zilch. 32/29. 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Going back and forth between light rain and light snow here, radar showing zilch. 32/29. 

I’m 34, very light drizzle in Sloatsburg. The new NAM and HRRR are very unimpressive for snow with the next round here in Rockland

[sussexcountyobs]

Starting to get some flakes with the light freezing drizzle here.

[rgwp96]

Sleet by me in butler (Morris county )

[snowman19]

Sleet here now....obviously a mid-level warm nose has worked in

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Sleet by me in butler (Morris county )

This is why those 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS. If there’s sleet, there’s a mid-level warm nose, those 10:1 maps count sleet as snow. That’s why I use the positive snow depth maps in these very marginal situations. The ratios are more like 5:1 tonight given the mid-level warming situation and the garbage boundary layer....those more accurate snow depth maps for the HRRR and NAM give my area less than an inch of snow for the duration

[gravitylover]

32/31/N1-4/fzgmist

Yuck.

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sleet here now....obviously a mid-level warm nose has worked in

Pretty well modeled. The question is whether it mixes out/cools before the precip. shuts off later tonight. The fact that it's sleet instead of freezing rain tells us that there's also a pronounced cold layer in there pretty low down. That gives some hope that heavier lift could help cool the column.

[nesussxwx]

3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

With what I got OTG from this morning the forecast should easily be met, curious though about if any banding can form to help bust totals high...but probably not by much given the quick movement of the Storm overall. 
 

BGM seems to think a 5-6 hour window of banding could happen

Snowed pretty well earlier. We'll see what this next batch does.

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, nesussxwx said:

Snowed pretty well earlier. We'll see what this next batch does.

 

 

Same by me. Are you in the condos?

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Pretty well modeled. The question is whether it mixes out/cools before the precip. shuts off later tonight. The fact that it's sleet instead of freezing rain tells us that there's also a pronounced cold layer in there pretty low down. That gives some hope that heavier lift could help cool the column.

My area is staying above freezing at the surface tonight. But you’re right, you are going to have to dynamically cool the column with strong UVV’s/lift and heavy precip rates to turn it back over to all snow. The models aren’t very impressive with QPF for the duration right now though

[Snowshack]

Getting some occasional drizzle and sleet, 37f

[wdrag]

 

Wantage NJ  thin glaze and now sleet and a bit of snow mix.  Quite an icy mess underfoot with a temp of 30.6F.  I hear 2-3" at 2000 feet Mt Cobb PA exit 8 on I84 and  snowing pretty hard. Use the positive snow depth or Ferrier for your assured snowfall tonight, wherever you are. The sleet has messed up the se edge here in nw NJ. 

 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

My area is staying above freezing at the surface tonight. But you’re right, you are going to have to dynamically cool the column with strong UVV’s/lift and heavy precip rates to turn it back over to all snow. The models aren’t very impressive with QPF for the duration right now though

The NAM gets up to around 2C at 900mb for NENJ through Westchester until finally cooling just before the precip. tapers off late tonight.  If that's right it's going to be hard to snow. But the NAM soundings for the next several hours look more like rain or freezing rain than sleet.  And we're had several bursts of sleet come through... so who knows. Right now I'm leaning against much snow south of Sussex, northern Passaic, NW Rockland, and Putnam Counties.  

[Tatamy]

Light rain mixed with sleet.  33F

[gravitylover]

31/31/ENE4G12/ with a snow/sleet/graupel mix

[sussexcountyobs]

Sleet/snow mix. 31.6°

[wishcast_hater]

In a snow hole for several hours. Just a coating so far. Not expecting much more, anything extra is a bonus.