A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 hours ago, McHenrySnow said: Terrible trends for N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: This is likely way overdone, but I do like the look for some rippage and a surprise overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This is likely way overdone, but I do like the look for some rippage and a surprise overperformer Don't worry I fixed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Yep, you got me, the 15z RAP is definitely not a complete outlier whatsoever. I better get my shovel ready. I really don't get some of you, other than you're just jerks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 meltdowns on 1"-3" fluff storms is new even for this board. Don't want to see what happens when a 12"-18" er slides south and east less than 18 hours out. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Yep, you got me, the 15z RAP is definitely not a complete outlier whatsoever. I better get my shovel ready. I really don't get some of you, other than you're just jerks. Here are some more outliers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Baum said: meltdowns on 1"-3" fluff storms is new even for this board. Don't want to see what happens when a 12"-18" er slides south and east less than 18 hours out. Literally no one is melting down. Some people are just a**holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Not a single one of those runs had occurred when I posted. I thought y'all liked looking at trends at not hugging single model runs, but it appears to be otherwise. Enjoy your dusting that melts the next day. There's also a big difference between 2-3" and 7-10", but, of course, you know that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 you can't just call people assholes in response to some kid glove tier ribbing and not expect some pushback 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Literally no one is melting down. Some people are just a**holes. In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. FWIW...still looks like a couple nice wintry days coming up. On Cue: " AFTER THE VERY LONG QUIET STRETCH ENDING WITH THE PRECIP THURSDAY- THURSDAY NIGHT, A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND LIKELY BEYOND DAY 7. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY."- LOT AFD If all goes well I can walk the arboretum this weekend and take in the snow covered forests. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: you can't just call people assholes in response to some kid glove tier ribbing and not expect some pushback Please DM me the meaning of glove tier ribbing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Big question is what will LOT issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: Please DM me the meaning of glove tier ribbing expected sexual reference is coming from the wrong person 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. I had a crappy morning and the piling on wasn't helpful. And you say it's just snow, but snow is literally one of my favorite things in the world. Yes, I can't control it, but it doesn't mean I don't get disappointed when I wake up and see NAM and Canadian models trended much further NW with the heavier snow. Who would have imagined saying that was a bad trend would end up causing so much nonsense? Regardless, I'm done with it. There's no use trying to engage with some posters and that's fine, I know better now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, RyanDe680 said: expected sexual reference is coming from the wrong person I'm actually not sure it's entirely sexual, and I'm saying that as likely the most potty-mouthed poster alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: Big question is what will LOT issue. Nothing. This doesn't even warrant a WWA. I mean, if the squalls materialize maybe a squall warning or a WWA for the possibility, but they're pretty conservative with watches/warnings imo so I don't expect anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 WSW like two weeks ago.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, kevlon62 said: WSW like two weeks ago. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Cold air finally coming down the chute? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 when Alaska torches, we do well with cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Even though it's unlikely I'll be receiving big accumulations out of this, I certainly like the convective look of the snow showers being modeled. Maybe if I'm lucky I could experience my first snow squall warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 DVN forecasting amounts under an inch for the southeast half or so of their cwa. I'm a little more optimistic that most areas will exceed an inch by later Friday. Just gonna ride the 1-2" call for here/QC. Will be nice to put a fresh coat overtop the older glacier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 boom on people getting over an inch, bust on any snow squall warnings being issued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 for those of you fond of the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: for those of you fond of the RAP Most of the area will get a DAB+. Some areas will get 1-3". That's the most you could have ever hoped for from this event unless you're in the snow capital of the world Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Quite a read catching up on the posts today. I felt like if anything we had a slight favorable trend of getting anything interesting tomorrow. There's support there for rain changing to a fairly short thump of snow from large scale (mid-level height falls and positive vorticity advection from a vort lobe wrapping around the ULL) and mesoscale from steep lapse rates and 850-700 mb fgen. Limiting factor is residence time of heavier rates and antecedent mild temps. Don't have too much to add on Friday's snow shower potential other than that it's a pretty good synoptic setup for them and[mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] posted a forecast sounding to highlight this. Finally, I like Sunday for a longer period of light to at times moderate snow with forcing rather modest but good DGZ depth and steep mid-upper lapse rates. None of this should add up to anything more than a few inches in the Chicago metro, but it's certainly a nice change from the long boring stretch. It's always good to keep expectations in check and appreciate the meteorology of some of these setups. I really do think our time is coming for something a lot more fun during the late month period and into February. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Tonight's 3k NAM and RDPS have shifted heavier snow totals into eastern Iowa. Meanwhile, the latest HRRR shifted west a bit. The 12k NAM is still west. I would love to get into the windy, snowy deformation zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 This just got more interesting for eastern Iowa. The Euro just added a big blob of heavy snow right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: This just got more interesting for eastern Iowa. The Euro just added a big blob of heavy snow right over me. Very nice. With as much as the precip areas keep dancing around from run to run makes me think many of us could be in for some surprises over the next 48hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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