McHenrySnow Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic. I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2" There may be some localized 4" areas, but it's gonna have to really overperform. LOT usually is more on the conservative side so I was surprised by this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic. I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2"More complete write-up in my AFD today, but a few points here: we think the Kuchera ratios are low-balling tomorrow. Kuchera is based off the max wet bulb T from sfc to 500 mb, and warmest temps will be at the sfc. The flaw in the method is that when the DGZ is deep like tomorrow but sfc temps not that cold, it doesn't adjust for favorably deep DGZ, it's strictly based off MaxT aloft. The Cobb method is preferred and averages 15:1, which is what WPC also preferred in their assessment, while the Kuchera is only 9 or 10:1. ECMWF and NAMs have been in good agreement on that corridor of up to or slightly over 0.2" LE, which should fluff up to spots of 3"+ when accounting for the ratio. Our graphic is using a little bit of creative license because in reality the highest total I forecast within the CWA is 2.8", but we went broad in public facing message because if that 0.2"+ LE does occur, then 3"+ amounts are pretty likely. Another wild card is lake enhancement, which actually looks fairly decent for once. We'll see shortly what 00z CAMs show but the 18z NAMs and 12z NMM showed a wind shift to north behind sfc trough passage, which really increases the convergence, plus thermos being solid enough. Above models got the lake enhancement onto IL side for a few hours and then settled into NW IN. Could be a nice bonus wherever that sets up. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Slight north trend with banding placement for tomorrow among hi res guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said: Slight north trend with banding placement for tomorrow among hi res guidance? bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 We will get very little snow from this, but some freezing drizzle has, unexpectedly, iced up surfaces here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like tonight's wave will be the best of the multi-day event for this area. Should get at least an inch of fresh snow after midnight, but wouldn't be surprised to see here or nearby make a run at 2" how is your glacier doing lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: how is your glacier doing lol? Pretty good, about 4" or so. That epic sleetstorm and subsequent glazing did wonders, plus we've stayed below 40 the past few weeks. Getting some snizzle now as lift is slowly increasing. Models have backed off ever so slightly on precip, so getting 2" tonight may be a stretch. Should still get a good inch hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Pouring pixie dust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 Looks like today’s wave will end up further north than modeled. Instead of along/just south of I-80 being favored, I-80 up to I-90 will be instead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Nice band on radar, just missing here to the north by mere miles. Looks like whoever gets under that, wins the derby in the LOT CWA. Think Hoosier has a good chance. We did better than expected here yesterday morning, so guess we can't win them all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Trailing band over us now, cotton balls falling. Best will be just to the north of here, but whoever gets under these bands for a time will do relatively well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoresnowthanU Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Had our first measurable snowfall in 424 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 post/username fail^ 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 coating sun peaking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Despite hi-res models backing off on precip yesterday evening we managed to get 2.3". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I picked up 0.9". The enhanced band set up just east of Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 who knew you could be underwhelmed when expecting an inch plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: who knew you could be underwhelmed when expecting an inch plus? The sun just came out and we’re above freezing now! lol 0.25” fell and now melting. smdh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Snow has been melting off of paved surfaces despite temps below freezing. The driveways/sidewalks are all clear from what I can see. Still don't have to shovel. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Snow has been melting off of paved surfaces despite temps below freezing. The driveways/sidewalks are all clear from what I can see. Still don't have to shovel. Lol Sun angle getting higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Sun angle getting higher. Long live winter 2020-21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Long live winter 2020-21 More snow than here. Hoosier bullseye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2021 Author Share Posted January 17, 2021 0.7" at ORD thus far. Might end up being the final eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Pretty fortunate it's looked like this for over 2 weeks now. About 6" OTG after this morning's fresh 2". 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Pretty fortunate it's looked like this for over 2 weeks now. About 6" OTG after this morning's fresh 2". yes you are fortunate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Six straight hours of snow and still snowing. Total accumulation? zero A microcosm of the winter of 2020-21 here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Six straight hours of snow and still snowing. Total accumulation? zero A microcosm of the winter of 2020-21 here. Sounded like Friday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoresnowthanU Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 It tried to accumulate for a second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Real duster event days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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