Hoosier Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 One issue for the LOT cwa is temps at onset. The NAM looks too cold in this setup (with temps AOB freezing for the bulk of the cwa) so precip at onset could either be rain or inefficient accumulating snow. Could get a nice burst of snow then but I am perhaps more interested in what happens when the cold core aloft comes in on Friday, especially with a little diurnal heating. Sometimes that can overperform but on a more localized basis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The Euro is gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: RGEM/GEM/Ukie in lock step for Thur-Sat...ride ‘em. 1-2" inbound. Tipping 3" in Rfd. ORD gaining momentum towards 15" seasonal totals by March 1st 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Lots of melting going on today - won't have much more than piles and drifted areas left by Thursday night, I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Here's LOT's take Thursday through Monday... A large upper trough will dig over the central CONUS on Thursday as an upper ridge amplifies over western North America. This upper trough will then develop into a closed upper low late Thursday over the Midwest, then gradually shift eastward across our area on Friday. Overall, this will result in a period of cool and active weather across the region late Thursday through Friday. Precipitation is expected to develop over the area Thursday afternoon. As it onsets, expect it to be in the form of rain, due to initially mild temperatures close to 40 Thursday afternoon. However, this light rain is expected to transition to light snow from west to east through Thursday evening. Some minor snow accumulations will be possible Thursday evening, but amounts look to remain under an inch. As we head into Friday the upper low is expected to shift overhead, and this essentially set up a vertically stacked surface and upper low over the area. Additional periods of snow can be expected over the area on Friday, and it looks to be more showery (convective) in nature. Low-level lapse rates should steepen considerably as a much cooler atmospheric column develops under the upper low overhead. As such, we could see some scattered instances of more vigorous snow shower activity on Friday, which in turn could support additional accumulations. This snow shower activity may persist into Friday night before the the entire weather system shifts to our east into Saturday. For the weekend and into early next week it looks like temperatures will be a bit colder then in recent days following the passage of the late week storm system. While our current blended forecast guidance suggests advertises a generally precipitation free period from this weekend onward, we will have to watch for some additional chances of snow later in the weekend. There is some support in the forecast guidance with another northwestern impulse tracking across the area sometime around Sunday. If trends continue to support this, future forecast updates will need to consider adding in a mention of light snow for the area later in the weekend as this potential system tracks across the area. KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here's LOT's take Thursday through Monday... A large upper trough will dig over the central CONUS on Thursday as an upper ridge amplifies over western North America. This upper trough will then develop into a closed upper low late Thursday over the Midwest, then gradually shift eastward across our area on Friday. Overall, this will result in a period of cool and active weather across the region late Thursday through Friday. Precipitation is expected to develop over the area Thursday afternoon. As it onsets, expect it to be in the form of rain, due to initially mild temperatures close to 40 Thursday afternoon. However, this light rain is expected to transition to light snow from west to east through Thursday evening. Some minor snow accumulations will be possible Thursday evening, but amounts look to remain under an inch. As we head into Friday the upper low is expected to shift overhead, and this essentially set up a vertically stacked surface and upper low over the area. Additional periods of snow can be expected over the area on Friday, and it looks to be more showery (convective) in nature. Low-level lapse rates should steepen considerably as a much cooler atmospheric column develops under the upper low overhead. As such, we could see some scattered instances of more vigorous snow shower activity on Friday, which in turn could support additional accumulations. This snow shower activity may persist into Friday night before the the entire weather system shifts to our east into Saturday. For the weekend and into early next week it looks like temperatures will be a bit colder then in recent days following the passage of the late week storm system. While our current blended forecast guidance suggests advertises a generally precipitation free period from this weekend onward, we will have to watch for some additional chances of snow later in the weekend. There is some support in the forecast guidance with another northwestern impulse tracking across the area sometime around Sunday. If trends continue to support this, future forecast updates will need to consider adding in a mention of light snow for the area later in the weekend as this potential system tracks across the area. KJB Sounds really enthused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 RGEM and this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 bombs away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ride it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 best glorified cold front ever, hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I would be down with that. Good thing an 84hr RGEM run is never wrong at all right? /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 best glorified cold front ever, hahActually an organized system on the RGEM/GEM/Ukie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Actually an organized system on the RGEM/GEM/Ukie. . And the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 without angry summons input I'm sort of lost. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 without angry summons input I'm sort of lost.Guidance doing a poor job on the amount of ridging over the Strait of Gibraltar, causing massive displacement downstream. The Pac jet will blow this up, and kick this system east fairly quickly in uneventful fashion. Be happy with the flurries you get in this crap pattern.. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 mood flakes at best here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Guidance doing a poor job on the amount of ridging over the Strait of Gibraltar, causing massive displacement downstream. The Pac jet will blow this up, and kick this system east fairly quickly in uneventful fashion. Be happy with the flurries you get in this crap pattern. . 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Guidance doing a poor job on the amount of ridging over the Strait of Gibraltar, causing massive displacement downstream. The Pac jet will blow this up, and ejaculate this system east fairly quickly in uneventful fashion. Be happy with the flurries you get in this crap pattern. . fixed... you forgot the reference... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 to an untrained eye...00Z NAM looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Will be nice to see flakes flying again. Looks like on and off again light snow all day Fri with hopefully an inch or two. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 "TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY APPEAR A BIT BROAD BRUSHED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE FRIDAY SNOW SHOWERS ULTIMATELY END UP, BUT AT THIS POINT, A ROUGH RANGE OF A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT."- LOT AFD well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 ready 2 b buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I actually enjoy these type of events. Hoping for an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 getting lucky with some localized banding under the ULL friday afternoon would be nice but it's a dice roll setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Should be a nice prolonged light snow event here to refresh our slowly diminishing snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Terrible trends for N IL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 5:49 AM, A-L-E-K said: final call of 2" on the dusty low take it to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Terrible trends for N IL. Must be something in the water in McHenry/Lake counties breeding super weenies. We need to start you guys a support group. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Must be something in the water in McHenry/Lake counties breeding super weenies. We need to start you guys a support group. Could you elaborate as to how the trends have been GOOD for N Illinois? Or do you just prefer to name-call like a child? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Must be something in the water in McHenry/Lake counties breeding super weenies. there is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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