Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.

[wdrag]

Have seen multiple model 12z/5 guidance including EPS/GEFS ensembles and basically all say not coming up, except the NAEFS which still has at least 1 member coming significantly west than the preponderance of global model guidance.  

I am stubborn on this, not giving up the option of at least a snow grazer just se of I95 for the 9th.

Am out of the more studied group on this and will review others input, but usually you need to wait til about 72 hours prior to the event to be very-very sure of the 500 MB interactions on a somewhat sensitive uncertain northern-southern stream handoff... the idea of having good 00z/12z upper air data to go with the satellite/aircraft/radar/surface data inputs.

Since we're still on the 5th,  I think I'll finally know for sure, whether this system will drop off my interest by 3PM Wednesday.  Right now, it cannot come unorth into the NYC forum per virtually all guidance and that has to be the way it's played. 

Still,  i hear media saying 10 days or more of no events... very difficult for me to believe that 1/8-9, 12ish, miss.  NAEFS has both missing n of I84.  So, I'm being patient on a potent system, and probably erroneously giving too much consideration for a more northwest track than modeled through the 12z/5 cycle.  I would think that if that northwest track were to occur, it would be more evident in some of the 00Z-12z/6 modeling. 

[MJO812]

Long shot but the Para gfs and gfs is more north with the lobe in Maine and shifted the storm north.

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 6.  Unless something highly unusual occurs, I've made my last update for this topic. This is a busted January 2 outlook that faded with model cycles only 24 hours after issuance, beginning around the 00z/3 cycle., blocked to our south and southeast.