Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.

[MJO812]

The one next week holds more promise with a better ridge out west

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The one next week holds more promise with a better ridge out west

12Z GFS is a big hit for next week

[Rjay]

Anyone that doesn't want to track this, feel free not to. TIA.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS is a big hit for next week

I wouldnt give up on the weekend threat just yet but its not looking good for that one.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I wouldnt give up on the weekend threat just yet but its not looking good for that one.

In Dec 2010 it took a while before the pattern produced.

I'm getting ready to sell the 8th system. Does not look good upstream and models are trending away from a hit.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldnt give up on the weekend threat just yet but its not looking good for that one.

it might be to our advantage if the week end system gets out of the way to the east and the vort in southeast Canada has time to move out of the way and allow HP to settle into southern Canada feeding in colder air prior to next week system

[NEG NAO]

12Z GEM same as GFS out to sea but notice next weeks system starting to develop out west

[NEG NAO]

12 Z GEM for next weeks system

[mikem81]

Surprised no one posted the UKMET

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Surprised no one posted the UKMET

[mikem81]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Jan 2016 is one of the top analogs by CIPS

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Jan 2016 is one of the top analogs by CIPS

that was 30 inches by me.  That would need a much stronger LP

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

se of where it’s been so likely trending toward other models. Next weeks storm is more promising but way far out 

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

se of where it’s been so likely trending toward other models. Next weeks storm is more promising but way far out 

Agreed north of the MD border, but UK stable s of there.  The following is said without 12z/GEFS, EC, EPS: I am biased to this coming up but the preponderance of evidence as everyone is saying, is southeast of NYC forum or a grazer central NJ, e tip LI. I think this Hatteras storm will deepen NNE before turning east or east northeast out to sea and i think that's what the UK is trying to say, with a northern pivot point axis near DC/BWI. I don't like all the far south scenarios with the craziness of the ne USA upper air.  Just takes a little more sharpening and rather than proceeding out to sea, the coastal would impact the forum.  So, I have not at all conceded that this is out to sea and harmless for the NYC forum. Maybe tomorrow or Wednesday i will have to. For now, I think it continues worthy to monitor.  Let's see if any of the models have an uh-oh change in the next 24 hours.  If not, then it's a bad read on my part. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z EURO

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z EURO

God damn piece of the vortex comes down from Canada and ruins the party . It was slightly further north this run

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

God damn piece of the vortex comes down from Canada and ruins the party . It was slightly further north this run

NC special there....even if it bumps north-won't see much north of Richmond or even DC

[NEG NAO]

Next weeks storm on EURO same track as this weekends

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

NC special there....even if it bumps north-won't see much north of Richmond or even DC

We need alot of changes

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Next weeks storm on EURO same track as this weekends

Eps?

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps?

you have better graphics with precip then this ?

[HVSnowLover]

48 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Next weeks storm on EURO same track as this weekends

I said a pattern that is congrats DC I’ll take my chances in NYC but a pattern that is congrats NC......

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you have better graphics with precip then this ?

Not at all

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS out to sea for next week system - 12Z EURO agreed

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS out to sea for next week system - 12Z EURO agreed

The pac is too fast

Still a big signal for a storm somewhere next week 

[sussexcountyobs]

Living or dying on 174 hr GFS models. Lol. Yesterday, did anyone forecast light snow to be falling this evening? Well, it is. Granted, it's light, and not sticking. But, it's falling. Point is, it's 7 days out? 

[MJO812]

LOL

 

[TriPol]

I do not want this week's storm to amount to anything. Next week's storm has the potentail to be the BIG ONE with that monster -NAO and relaxing of the Pac Jet.

[wdrag]

Good Tuesday morning Jan 5: Update of the topic dropped the 8th, and dropped the tag of ice. The preponderance of 00z/06z January 5 2021 guidance favors a miss for this developing mid Atlantic coast nor'easter and so my Jan 1 confidence is probably wrongly over confident for an 8-9 day outlook. However, we're still at 96 hours (4 days) with somewhat delicate northern-southern stream trough interactions in the northeast USA Friday and Saturday.  Some of the guidance has minor amounts of precipitation skimming the NJ coast/e LI with ensembles interestingly showing a little more extensive minor qpf coverage for southern New England. That New England coverage may be due to the eventual development of an upper level low over central or southern New England on Saturday (light wind), and a possibility for a period of easterly flow aloft , caused by the flow interactions of the modeled offshore storm and the northern stream short wave in New England. So it would not surprise to see some light or very light snow on the coasts into CT/MA but for now--- please go with your take on the event. I can't push this occurrence in the face of all the recent 3 days of modeling.  We're still 96 hours in advance of the storms passage and once in a while models make significant adjustments in somewhat uncertain northern -southern stream interactions.