NJsnow89 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Hopefully this all changes for us soon. So far today, models have backed off the NS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Some serious potential with this one. All models have some type of storm for this time period. It reminds me of past snowstorms where the models showed potential several days out and came together as we got closer. The AO/NAO will reach their most negative numbers around this time as well. I hate this storm but who knows. Maybe it could work out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: I hate this storm but who knows. Maybe it could work out. Think it's going to be a swing and a miss. the 12-13th may be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Top 3 CIPS analogs for the Jan 8th storm: 1. December 2009 2. January 2016 3. Boxing Day 2010 Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, NJsnow89 said: Hopefully this all changes for us soon. So far today, models have backed off the NS. I'll take my chances 6 days out. Remember Albany was supposed to whiff with December storm and they got blasted. I would not wanna be in the jackpot 6 days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: 18Z GFS Pretty much exactly where everyone should want it 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’ve been lurking long enough to know - that’s right where we want it a week out. Yes but we have to see if this is legit. This little vort near Maine supresses our main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: yeah BUT how are you going to get rid of that little vort near Maine that is suppressing next weekends coastal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yeah BUT how are you going to get rid of that little vort near Maine that is suppressing next weekends coastal ? Who knows if the models are actually right about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who knows if the models are actually right about it. The Ukie is closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer... The upcoming pattern may just be more common in El Niño's... Even Jan 1996, Dec 2010, and Jan 2011 [La Niñas with a significant snowstorm] are on that list! It's surprising just how close to a robust snowstorm the pattern is, but there are wrinkles in the details preventing the storm from currently seeming more significant... While analogs are helpful, reality will always prevail over similar—yet different—situations. It's certainly something to watch, given that we have a number of days left to track the system, but ensembles haven't been very enthusiastic... It may be a signal that this storm doesn't have as much leeway to grow more significant, but stranger modeling madness has occurred in much smaller timeframes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer... Dec 2010 El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: meh...all el nino years...1980 is in there for a disclaimer... This pattern isn't la Nina like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Still close but now it’s getting close enough timeframe from right where want it to we need to see a west trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Still close but now it’s getting close enough timeframe from right where want it to we need to see a west trend 0Z GFSv16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 0Z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: 0Z GEM Every model is something different. Never seen such inconsistency in my life lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Every model is something different. Never seen such inconsistency in my life lol Every storm? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Every model is something different. Never seen such inconsistency in my life lol I've been following weather models for 25 years. And I've never seen such consistency 5 days out as I've seen this winter. Modeling gets better every year. There are so many mid-range models now and they run so frequently that we have data overload. We are getting spoiled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 What a mess lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: What a mess lol Good luck with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie Nice to have one model wound up and a hit with everything else ots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 As noted previously, most of the modeling has our forum on the nw fringe of the storm, if anything at all. Models have a complex upper air pattern in the northeast USA, so the NC/VA's snow event-storm may yet come a little closer, dependent upon upper air interactions up here. As it stands now, the central NJ e tip of Li of our subforum would be grazed with minor amounts (rain or snow?). But the op UK even while having shifted se, is a current outlier solution for an event here. Just have to watch for trends in the 12z/4 and 00z/5 cycles. I definitely want to see the GGEM spread more than 0.1" qpf into our forum by the 00z/5 cycle and the GFS come back north.. NAEFS has us on the edge and I haven't seen much southward drift the past 00z/4 cycle. That leaves me staying with this outlook, til am assured we've been bypassed to the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12Z GFS once again is a miss because of the vort lobe that cuts off in eastern Canada and moves south towards NE blocking this out to sea south of us - no sense in even tracking this for now until things change - lets see if most the other guidance agrees at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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