Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 6.  Unless something highly unusual occurs, I've made my last update for this topic. This was a busted January 2 outlook that faded with model cycles only 24 hours after issuance, beginning around the 00z/3 cycle., blocked to our south and southeast. 

 

Good Tuesday morning Jan 5: Update dropped the 8th from the topic, and dropped the tag of ice. The preponderance of 00z/06z January 5 2021 guidance favors a miss for this developing mid Atlantic coast nor'easter and so my Jan 2 confidence is probably wrongly over confident for an 7-8 day outlook. However, we're still at 96 hours (4 days) with somewhat delicate northern-southern stream trough interactions in the northeast USA Friday and Saturday.  Some of the guidance has minor amounts of precipitation skimming the NJ coast/e LI with ensembles interestingly showing a little more extensive minor qpf coverage for southern New England. That New England coverage may be due to the eventual development of an upper level low over central or southern New England on Saturday (light wind), and a possibility for a period of easterly flow aloft , caused by the flow interactions of the modeled offshore storm and the northern stream short wave in New England. So it would not surprise to see some light or very light snow on the coasts into CT/MA but for now--- please go with your take on the event. I can't push this occurrence in the face of all the recent 3 days of modeling.  We're still 96 hours in advance of the storms passage and once in a while models make significant adjustments in somewhat uncertain northern -southern stream interactions.

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Happy New Year and welcome to what will probably be the 3rd wintry event of January 2021!  Just too early to detail but ensembles have something. The current Aleutians east central PAC short wave is modeled to dive southeastward into the nations mid section and by Next Friday the 8th turn northeastward into the northeast USA.  This could be snow to ice to rain, but something wintry is coming (my guestimate is a 70 to 80% likelihood). Is there enough cold air and confluence in the right area of northern New England  to allow-keep it wintry?  -NAO Block impact?  Will update these tags and potential impacts when confidence increases. Just wanted to get this thread started for any comments/model considerations etc as we move forward.

[NEG NAO]

after reviewing 12Z guidance offers no clue as to what might happen on the 8-9 the GFS is a complete miss to the east and the CMC is a grazer with snow along the coast - still waiting on the other models....

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFSV16 is also a complete miss to the southeast for 8/9

[White Gorilla]

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFSV16 is also a complete miss to the southeast for 8/9

Good to see this solution at this time frame.  It's likely going to change a lot. 

[HVSnowLover]

I think it’s a miss or snow. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z EURO is a miss BUT lets keep in mind 12 hours earlier it was a direct hit with mainly liquid along the coast

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS closer to coast BUT

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS closer to coast BUT

Yep long ways to go

[wdrag]

fwiw... 12z/2 NAEFS and GGEM are drifting north.  Might not have enough wavelength if it stays separated from the northern stream, but possible the northern stream joins forces and it comes all the way up the coast.  Too early for me... I'm staying put on expectations until I clearly see a southward block and not enough ridging ahead of it. 

[Rjay]

17 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... 12z/2 NAEFS and GGEM are drifting north.  Might not have enough wavelength if it stays separated from the northern stream, but possible the northern stream joins forces and it comes all the way up the coast.  Too early for me... I'm staying put on expectations until I clearly see a southward block and not enough ridging ahead of it. 

If the northern stream phases in it's game on.  If it doesn't, it ends up being a negative effect on our bowling ball.    Also have to watch the lobe swinging through se canada into northern New England.  If it swings around at the wrong time the storm won't be able to climb the coast. 

*** a little disclaimer.  I'm not even sure if any of these canadian vorts are real at this point so its best to just keep an eye on things and look for any big changes coming out of Canada.  And the disclaimer isn't for you Walt, it's for the weenies like me.  

 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS 

[MJO812]

Para gfs is a cold snowstorm 

[NEG NAO]

and a few days later on 0Z GFS

[MJO812]

2 possible snow events a few days apart on the gfs

[MJO812]

CMC just misses for the area for Sat

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

CMC just misses for the area for Sat

[Stormlover74]

Would be a lot of heavy wet snowfall 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, JoshSnow said:

I don’t think this will be wet snow. I think it’ll actually be cold and snowy in the upper teens to low twenties! It’s looking colder and colder in the long range!

Friday/Saturday event looks marginal if it happens so yes wet snow. Afterwards the pattern really looks to turn cold.

[MJO812]

Euro brought down northern stream energy and just missed the phase. Colder and bigger storm offshore on this run compared to 12z.

 

So close

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... 12z/2 NAEFS and GGEM are drifting north.  Might not have enough wavelength if it stays separated from the northern stream, but possible the northern stream joins forces and it comes all the way up the coast.  Too early for me... I'm staying put on expectations until I clearly see a southward block and not enough ridging ahead of it. 

Euro trended towards this tonight, Walt....sloppy phase, but unmistakable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro brought down northern stream energy and just missed the phase. Colder and bigger storm offshore on this run compared to 12z.

 

So close

It was just a sloppy phase.

[wdrag]

Jan 8-9: Still potential but admittedly for now modeling needs to allow further north expansion.  We should know if this has any chance of occurring by the 00z/6 cycle. For now it's nice to see the 00z, and 06z/3 GFS op have it, as well as the 00z/3 GFS para while the GGEM is just off the coast (we'll need that GGEM  into our area if we're to get a decent qpf event). As others have posted just before this post, the EC OP is going for a late phase too far southeast. Uncertainty this far in advance but still plenty of potential.  I won't be commenting further on Jan 8-9 til tomorrow morning, allowing the modeling to do whatever they do through multiple uneven cycles.

[SnoSki14]

Some serious potential with this one. All models have some type of storm for this time period.

It reminds me of past snowstorms where the models showed potential several days out and came together as we got closer. 

The AO/NAO will reach their most negative numbers around this time as well.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS

[NEG NAO]

12Z GEM

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFSv16

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFSv16

Good spot right now. Hopefully get that ns to dive in behind an not on top. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z EURO

[NEG NAO]

12Z GEFS

[MJO812]

Euro is south. Not alot northern stream energy coming down like it showed on 0z.