White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 39 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: My shih-tzu used to absolutely love the snow, but she's 18 now and has no patience for it anymore. Begrudgingly goes outside, but never lets the door out of her sight. Silly geezer. It bodes extremely well for anyone who already has 5-6" before the banding regime even really takes over. You can see radar drying out over the far interior as broad-scale ascent yields to coastal low dynamics, with convection blossoming around the low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Transverse banding over and off NJ betrays the potent upper jet streak that will continue to drive cyclogenesis. Only about an inch here so far, the WAA snows were never going to impress up here. Buckle up folks, it's coming. Love it when you use weather jargon. The light patchy snow currently had me a bit worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, White Gorilla said: Love it when you use weather jargon. The light patchy snow currently had me a bit worried. I know just what you like. Not sure what's going down over in the California side of Dutchess, but snowfall rates have picked up nicely here, with impressive snow growth. That, in spite of the sparse radar echoes, is a good sign – the column is primed and ready to start dumping snow as soon as the warm front lifts north. It may still be several hours yet before the brunt of the action begins north of 84. That was well-modeled. On the 12z HRRR, our time to shine is 1 through 7 pm. What happens after that will determine whether it's a great storm or merely a good storm. If we dryslot before midnight as most of the hi-res models suggest, there probably won't be too many surprises with regard to final totals in our area. The GFS is much more friendly to the idea of meaningful snows right through tomorrow. It's a fun one to track! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I know just what you like. Not sure what's going down over in the California side of Dutchess, but snowfall rates have picked up nicely here, with impressive snow growth. That, in spite of the sparse radar echoes, is a good sign – the column is primed and ready to start dumping snow as soon as the warm front lifts north. It may still be several hours yet before the brunt of the action begins north of 84. That was well-modeled. On the 12z HRRR, our time to shine is 1 through 7 pm. What happens after that will determine whether it's a great storm or merely a good storm. If we dryslot before midnight as most of the hi-res models suggest, there probably won't be too many surprises with regard to final totals in our area. The GFS is much more friendly to the idea of meaningful snows right through tomorrow. It's a fun one to track! Definitely! Steady light snow here on the "Cali" side of Dutchess with larger flakes now mixing in. We definitely hope for more accums tonight into tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, North and West said: The rescue had a many huskies there on Saturday. Hopefully they found a home and could go nuts in this weather. Our guy being from Georgia was less... appreciative of the conditions. What rescue is that? My wife and kids are pushing for a husky puppy. After the snow lightened for about 30 minutes it's back to heavy with large flakes. The wind is a real thing too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 I gave The Weather Channel a shot again a couple of months ago when there’s a storm around, good to see Jeff Morrow back. I don’t know how long he’s been back but it reminds me of the old days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What rescue is that? My wife and kids are pushing for a husky puppy. After the snow lightened for about 30 minutes it's back to heavy with large flakes. The wind is a real thing too.Eleventh Hour Rescue in Morris County.www.ehrdogs.org. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 About an hour ago giving it it’s inaugural run!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5.5 otg 21/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 ^^Rechargeable? Looks like it does ok with a couple of inches of fluff. First round of shoveling done. There's no good way to measure this stuff but I'd be ok with calling it 5-6" so far but it seems like its been inch am hour stuff for a while. It looks much deeper in the bushes where everything is settling because of the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, gravitylover said: ^^Rechargeable? Looks like it does ok with a couple of inches of fluff. First round of shoveling done. There's no good way to measure this stuff but I'd be ok with calling it 5-6" so far but it seems like its been inch am hour stuff for a while. It looks much deeper in the bushes where everything is settling because of the wind. It does. It won't handle the gross plow-ins, but fresh snow, no issue. We've gotten about another half foot since I was out there at 9:30, so maybe a foot total or so thus far? Truly eyeballing it; I live on top of a hill and the wind is always rolling during these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 ^^ Yup, similar. I'm just over the east side of a good sized hill and the wind makes it hard. I'm also approaching a foot now, close but not quite. There has only been 1 vehicle down the street all day, someones plow guy from down the street so the street is nearly pristine which is pretty cool. I'm going for another walk soon. It's officially dumping out there kidz. Visibility is down under 1,000 feet now, I can't see the next street down the hill and the wind is hammering from the north. This is easily 2"/hr and probably more like 3+ but the wind... 26/26/NNE16-21/SN++ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Winds have been pretty much dead-calm here all day. Nice sheltered valley FTW. Those bands will weaken some as they surge north away from the 850mb moisture channel, but should still be good for 1-2"/hr rates imby. Looking forward to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Winds have been pretty much dead-calm here all day. Nice sheltered valley FTW. Those bands will weaken some as they surge north away from the 850mb moisture channel, but should still be good for 1-2"/hr rates imby. Looking forward to it. A little frustrating seeing those heavier bands struggle with northwest progression. Hope that changes. Hope to see 1-2 hour rates for the many hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: A little frustrating seeing those heavier bands struggle with northwest progression. Hope that changes. Hope to see 1-2 hour rates for the many hours Once those bands make it up here they won't move much just pivot in place. I think we are still on track for widespread 18-24 in the I-84 corridor 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, snywx said: Once those bands make it up here they won't move much just pivot in place. I think we are still on track for widespread 18-24 in the I-84 corridor It is still puking out there. I'm easily at a foot now. The wind moved from N to NE and now it's mostly N again. I'm watching for the move to the NW, that should signal the pivot is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Liking the Euro for the weekend, deep winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Liking the Euro for the weekend, deep winter. Building the pack!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I will confess that mby is close to falling behind the expectation vs. reality curve. I would have expected more than 3.5" by 2 pm. We stay the course though, that main band has some real staying power it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Wish I knew how much snow we've gotten in ramapo/spring valley thus far. Wife and I went for a walk though. That street was plowed at least 4 times and its completely covered with at least 4 inches that are VERY dense from cars and people walking on itSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I will confess that mby is close to falling behind the expectation vs. reality curve. I would have expected more than 3.5" by 2 pm. We stay the course though, that main band has some real staying power it appears. If we can get 1-2 inch rates going until midnight, that should get us into the 15-20 range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 01 2021 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Pennsylvania...central and northern New Jersey...far southeast New York...Long Island...Connecticut...Rhode Island...Massachusetts Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011843Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Up to 2-4 inch/hr snowfall rates will be possible across portions of the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England this afternoon, with occasional blizzard conditions possible across Long Island. Portions of far eastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey will continue to experience a heavy sleet/snow mix. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to gradually deepen while tracking slowly north-northeastward just off the Jersey shoreline as a 110+ knot 300 mb jet traverses the Mid Atlantic/New England Coastline. Strong 925-700 mb warm-air advection ahead/north of the surface low continues to support ample mixed wintry precipitation/heavy snowfall potential amidst a sub-freezing tropospheric vertical profile and deep-layer ascent provided by coupled low-level convergence with the surface low and upper-level divergence by the strong 300 mb jet (per latest Mesoanalysis). Latest KDIX/KOKX dual-polarimetric radar depicts a an east to west snow/sleet transition zone roughly from KLOM to KISP. Latest METAR observations also show 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates ongoing just north of this transition zone, and the heavier snow/sleet are expected to gradually translate northward through the afternoon. METAR sites also show 25 knot sustained northeasterly winds prevailing across Long Island, along with heavy snow and higher gusts noted. As such, brief and localized blizzard conditions are expected to persist. Latest HREF, SREF, and last few runs of the HRRR suggest that relatively lighter snowfall rates mixed with sleet will be the predominant mode of precipitation from far eastern PA/central NJ southward this afternoon, with a transition of sleet likely across portions of Long Island and brief/localized blizzard conditions still possible. Farther north across parts of southern New England, the heavier band of wintry precipitation will progress northward, with strong 700 mb warm-air advection and a near-saturated dendritic growth zone supporting 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates this afternoon, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. A few brief instances of 4 inch/hr rates also cannot be ruled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: If we can get 1-2 inch rates going until midnight, that should get us into the 15-20 range I am just south of you in Hopewell and it is Coming down fast and Furious!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, msd said: I am just south of you in Hopewell and it is Coming down fast and Furious!!! Awesome. Picking up nicely here now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Wish I knew how much snow we've gotten in ramapo/spring valley thus far. Wife and I went for a walk though. That street was plowed at least 4 times and its completely covered with at least 4 inches that are VERY dense from cars and people walking on it Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 8.4 inches so far in Pomona NY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not in NY for this one. Grandfather was saying about 6” in Red oaks mill Area not too long ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, White Gorilla said: Awesome. Picking up nicely here now too The bands moving in from the east in Connecticut are the real deal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just hit 11”. 2” last hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Rates look insane on radar up there. What are people seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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