Juliancolton Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 It was my neighborhood's turn to get trashed yesterday. No power, cell signal, phone... trees and wires down all over. My place is fine except for all my corn getting blown down and squash leaves turning into Swiss cheese from penny-sized hail. My beloved tomatoes are no worse for wear, thank goodness 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It was my neighborhood's turn to get trashed yesterday. No power, cell signal, phone... trees and wires down all over. My place is fine except for all my corn getting blown down and squash leaves turning into Swiss cheese from penny-sized hail. My beloved tomatoes are no worse for wear, thank goodness Ugh, all of that is such a pain in the ass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Ugh, all of that is such a pain in the ass Yessir. Gone are the days of gentle summer storms, someone always gets walloped these days. Hard to tell if the storms are getting more severe, or we're just getting worse at maintaining the infrastructure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 11 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: .80” here today .75" in the Stratus 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yessir. Gone are the days of gentle summer storms, someone always gets walloped these days. Hard to tell if the storms are getting more severe, or we're just getting worse at maintaining the infrastructure. I think its a combination of both. It certainly seems like we get storms much more than in the past but I have no science to back that up. As far as infrastructure IMO its not maintained as much as it used to be. I was commenting recently at work how NYSDOT repainted the lines on Route 207 and in spots they literally painted dirt and grass as the shoulder has eroded away. Its been that way for years now and does not get addressed. A little simple PM when it first happened would help the road last longer but it seems like the approach is to wait until it gets so bad that they have to repave. And even when they repave the best you get is a 'mill and fill' job, the roads never truly get fixed and rebuilt. Oh and NYS 207 is an official NYS bike route...yet there is no shoulder between Goshen and Campbell Hall. I'll likely bring it up with a meeting I have with NYSDOT again next week but to no avail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 That's why I didn't plant corn this year. I lost almost all of it close to harvest time and it frustrated the isht out of me. Thankfully this one didn't hurt but it's so wet the bugs are back in force. I drowned a couple dozen this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Ugh, all of that is such a pain in the ass Sorry to hear man. We got slammed too and no power here either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: .4 it rained hard but not for very long. Every time it rains it brings the bugs. My garden was a mess this morning, filled with Japanese Beetles and slugs just munching away and shutting on and sliming everything. I literally drowned over 2 dozen beetles in a few minutes. I had dozens of Japanese beetles drowned in my pool each day the last two days. Dodged the heavy thunderstorms yesterday and had 0.18 in the bucket for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Sorry to hear man. We got slammed too and no power here either I'm good, just torrential rain again and a bit of wind yesterday. You guys over there really got nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Hope everyone is prepared to get soaked again, whatever comes today and the 1-3” tomorrow and Friday will do a decent number on the rivers around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 only got .14" yesterday although I did hit some strong winds driving home on the taconic by Hawthorne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Areas affected...Northeast PA...southeast NY...southern VT...MA...CT...RI...northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071750Z - 071945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon and be capable of damaging downburst winds and isolated instances of large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 1830z. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis showed a stationary front extending from near the MA/NH border west to near the eastern tip of Lake Erie. Strong diabatic heating of a very moist (upper 60s-lower 70s surface dew points) air mass continues south of the front, contributing to MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg. The discussion area is on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly flow, and this will contribute to effective shear values ranging from 25-35 kts. Largely southwest/west flow in the low-mid levels will support multicells and clusters as the primary modes. Steep low-level lapse rates and a very moist environment will support damaging downburst winds as the primary hazard, especially as storm coverage/clustering increases later this afternoon. A few instances of large hail will be possible, especially with the strongest multicell updrafts. Convective trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely prior to 1830z. ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Mesoscale Discussion 1180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Areas affected...Northeast PA...southeast NY...southern VT...MA...CT...RI...northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071750Z - 071945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon and be capable of damaging downburst winds and isolated instances of large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 1830z. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis showed a stationary front extending from near the MA/NH border west to near the eastern tip of Lake Erie. Strong diabatic heating of a very moist (upper 60s-lower 70s surface dew points) air mass continues south of the front, contributing to MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg. The discussion area is on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly flow, and this will contribute to effective shear values ranging from 25-35 kts. Largely southwest/west flow in the low-mid levels will support multicells and clusters as the primary modes. Steep low-level lapse rates and a very moist environment will support damaging downburst winds as the primary hazard, especially as storm coverage/clustering increases later this afternoon. A few instances of large hail will be possible, especially with the strongest multicell updrafts. Convective trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely prior to 1830z. ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/07/2021 Watch up now...yay.... Tornado Watch tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Watch up now...yay.... Tornado Watch tomorrow? Could be on the menu. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...Portions of the Northeast/southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by Thursday afternoon in a weakly capped environment across eastern PA and NJ, and also potentially along a warm front into portions of southern New England. Modestly enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow may support some organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind. A supercell or two cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the warm front, which would pose a threat of a tornado or two in addition the damaging wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 It's a total monsoon here. Absolutely biblical rain and lightning ...which I suppose means the linemen aren't working tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I had really heavy rain for a minute or 3. Just enough that the slugs will come back out to play in the garden. Is your power still out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: I had really heavy rain for a minute or 3. Just enough that the slugs will come back out to play in the garden. Is your power still out? Same here from the overnight 0.03. Some loud thunder but that was basically it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 ‘Nothing here. 71/71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 Yeah, heard thunder overnight but the storms looked to go just to my NW, .14” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 7 hours ago, gravitylover said: I had really heavy rain for a minute or 3. Just enough that the slugs will come back out to play in the garden. Is your power still out? Still out and not optimistic about restoration today. 1.67" in the Stratus from last night, 5.15" on the month so far. Drenched. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 18 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Could be on the menu. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...Portions of the Northeast/southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by Thursday afternoon in a weakly capped environment across eastern PA and NJ, and also potentially along a warm front into portions of southern New England. Modestly enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow may support some organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind. A supercell or two cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the warm front, which would pose a threat of a tornado or two in addition the damaging wind potential. Update from this morning, looks like the showers now could limit severe later. "...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected within the moist conveyor regime downstream of TC Elsa. Guidance indicates the potential for moderate buoyancy will generally remain confined from the Chesapeake/DE Bays towards the NYC tri-state area, where cloud breaks are noted within morning visible imagery. However, convective development is already underway from eastern PA to southeast NY and this appears ill-timed to strengthening tropospheric flow fields that should largely be delayed until late afternoon into this evening. This renders uncertainty over the spatial extent of any organized clusters to transient supercells. Thus, will defer to later outlooks for possible upgrade to cat 2/SLGT risk." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 @hudsonvalley21 Third day in a row for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, do you recall that ever happening before around here? Anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: @hudsonvalley21 Third day in a row for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, do you recall that ever happening before around here? Anyone? Not that I can remember for the severe thunderstorm watch. 0.57 in the bucket today so far. a section from today’s outlook from the SPC Northeast States... Clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing at midday across the region, particularly across far southeast New York into western New England. More considerable cloud cover is also generally prevalent across the region as compared to prior days. More appreciable destabilization will tend to remain confined to the Chesapeake/DE Bays towards the New York City tri-state area, where some cloud breaks are noted within morning visible satellite imagery. Although the degree of destabilization is a bit uncertain, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the region with thunderstorm wind damage as the primary severe risk. Areas such as northeast PA/northern NJ into southern NY/NYC Metro and southern New England will continue to be reevaluated and monitored for a somewhat greater severe risk later today, which could include potential for some transient supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 7 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Still out and not optimistic about restoration today. 1.67" in the Stratus from last night, 5.15" on the month so far. Drenched. Add another 0.97" this afternoon so far. Pool and pond alike are overflowing... maximum soppage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Add another 0.97" this afternoon so far. Pool and pond alike are overflowing... maximum soppage. Damn, 2.28” for the month here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 We were in Carmel at the supermarket when the storm rolled in, it absolutely fkn POURED between there and home. Here at the homestead it looks like ~.2 to maybe .25 but 3 miles north it's 1.2 and 4 miles north it's 1.9! What a difference in a really short distance. Woof. @Juliancolton that sux. Sorry dude. Want me to bring some cold beer tomorrow if things aren't too terrible for traveling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Absolutely nuts to watch what’s happening closer to the city while I’ve stayed dry basically all day. Our PRE here in the Catskills looks to commence momentarily, however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Another super heavy cell just slid by to my east. Nice light show but only a little bit of rain. Stations around the hill are still between .2 and .35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Damn, 2.28” for the month here That total is going to be low by maybe .50 as I figured out the tipper was blocked by bird poop most likely. I think I got the clog out now but will need to look more closely. The Stratus will need to fill in the details tomorrow when I check it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 Major flooding in the Bronx by the westChester border when I drove home at 5. Only a half inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: We were in Carmel at the supermarket when the storm rolled in, it absolutely fkn POURED between there and home. Here at the homestead it looks like ~.2 to maybe .25 but 3 miles north it's 1.2 and 4 miles north it's 1.9! What a difference in a really short distance. Woof. @Juliancolton that sux. Sorry dude. Want me to bring some cold beer tomorrow if things aren't too terrible for traveling? It's all good, out of my control so I try not to spend too much energy fretting about it. I'll let ya buy me a beer at the long overdue NW burbs gtg. Definitely some tight gradients with this week's precip. The same areas seem to be favored day after day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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