Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021

[crossbowftw3]

Looking potentially interesting for a little topper to our season. I'd lean lower on potential ranges but 1-4" seems like a good bet.

[LaGrangewx]

Getting snow here at almost 50 degrees 

[gravitylover]

That was a really cool convective snow squall that blew through here about an hour ago. The graupel pellets were huge, like snowballs splatting on the windshield at about the same 50* as mentioned above. Cool weather...

[gravitylover]

And the power is out

[Hitman]

6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

And the power is out

Bummer.  I made a fire just in case.  

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning everyone.  Here's my placeholder for the threads: Less than usual confidence on ice/snow amounts.  

 

Tuesday-Noon Wednesday: I78-I84 corridors-periods of light snow, sleet or freezing rain likely begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and ends as rain Wednesday morning. Modeling uncertain-so my confidence on how much ice/snow is less than usual. There is a pretty good chance of at least spotty icing in PA/NJ that may require treatments. If it's snow, just a slightest covering to maybe an inch or 2 but can't promise all snow except CT/MA. The snow may never reach Boston? I can see the need for some caution traveling untreated surfaces Tuesday night-early Wednesday.  One model: The GFS v15/16 have been hitting the snow harder along w the GEFS, for se NYS/extreme nw NJ/extreme ne PA with potential for 4" high terrain, if no ice.  One of my concerns is ice in ne PA/nw NJ. 

 

Friday-early Saturday (19-20): Mainly I78-I84 corridors: Rain Thursday should change to a 4-8 hour period of wet snow Friday morning with trace to 2" amounts on untreated surfaces, especially high terrain. There is a small chance that snow continues much longer, into Saturday morning, whereby we'd have a more significant snow accumulation problem, especially PA/NJ. 

 

Max gust here in this part of Wantage NJ on Sunday was again 43MPH~6PM.

[gravitylover]

9 hours ago, Hitman said:

Bummer.  I made a fire just in case.  

We got lucky and it was only out for about 45 minutes. A huge pine tree took out a pole 100 feet from the corner and they were able to reroute it and get my street back up. If it had been one pole down the line we would have been out for 8 or 9 hours while they repaired the damage like the houses further up the hill.

[Hitman]

Dew point is 3.  

[crossbowftw3]

Dry as a bone this morning making it feel even colder

 

let’s see what happens late week. Quite probably winter’s last dance with respects to any meaningful snow for perhaps the next 7 months 

[Juliancolton]

This wind is getting nettlesome, vexatious even.

[gravitylover]

The upside to all the wind is how quickly the ground surface is drying up, my yard has gone from a quagmire to reasonable in 3 days rather than the typical 2 weeks. 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

This wind is getting nettlesome, vexatious even.

Good afternoon, Julian. If you keep this up and with the addition of a few hundred more words you may morph into our forums version of New England’s Tip. As always .....

[Juliancolton]

13 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon, Julian. If you keep this up and with the addition of a few hundred more words you may morph into our forums version of New England’s Tip. As always .....

You take that back

[rclab]

23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

You take that back

Done, as always......

[gravitylover]

7 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

This wind is getting nettlesome, vexatious even.

Too few words for that many syllables. 

[gravitylover]

That A- grade is slipping away. 3 weeks with no wintry precip of note and barely a prospect of any more before the end of the month will kill the enthusiasm from the near record preceding 3 weeks. The convective graupel day last week helped but not enough. I need at least a 6+ with snow on the ground for a few days to keep it there. That said, I'm fine with it going straight to the 60's and staying there when this cold(ish) airmass moves out, in fact I'm pretty sure it's what I want to happen.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

That A- grade is slipping away. 3 weeks with no wintry precip of note and barely a prospect of any more before the end of the month will kill the enthusiasm from the near record preceding 3 weeks. The convective graupel day last week helped but not enough. I need at least a 6+ with snow on the ground for a few days to keep it there. That said, I'm fine with it going straight to the 60's and staying there when this cold(ish) airmass moves out, in fact I'm pretty sure it's what I want to happen.

You've always been an easy grader, all of the past winters say that, that's why they all try to get into your class.

This is a B and we've already been through all the reasons this doesn't come close to an A unless we had a March similar to 2018. With the way this March is going this winter is dropping into the C+, B- category. March in the HV has to produce something in the first three weeks of the month at least, not this year and 1-2 inches Friday won't cut it.

[Hitman]

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You've always been an easy grader, all of the past winters say that, that's why they all try to get into your class.

This is a B and we've already been through all the reasons this doesn't come close to an A unless we had a March similar to 2018. With the way this March is going this winter is dropping into the C+, B- category. March in the HV has to produce something in the first three weeks of the month at least, not this year and 1-2 inches Friday won't cut it.

I still have patches of snow on north facing wooded areas and significant piles down in croton.  and its st. paddy's day.  sticking with my A-.

That being said, I want more snow down here and up in ski country. 

[gravitylover]

The neighbor across the street blew all of the snow off the driveway into one spot and that's what I see from my desk so that's nice but even my 6 foot high shovel piles are nearly gone and black on top so they don't look like snow anymore. Oh well, so it goes. 

@CPcantmeasuresnow yeah maybe but that was a pretty intense couple of weeks with a boatload of snow and 50 something days of snowcover hits my long duration snowpack requirement. We also had a multi day storm, a few times where it snowed a couple of days in a row and a good December storm. January and now March killed it though so yeah it's quickly falling through the B's.

[Juliancolton]

Look forward to my flash freeze and back-end snows on Friday, those never disappoint

[hudsonvalley21]

9 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Look forward to my flash freeze and back-end snows on Friday, those never disappoint

Can’t wait to scrape off the windshield with a 1/2” of frozen paste tomorrow morning  

point and click forecast has a low of 26 overnight IMBY.

 

[crossbowftw3]

Can’t wait for the 1/2” car topping paste as well tonight but the next 10 days or so will be the real taste of spring 

 

might even have to crack the door open for any potential last gasps in early April 

[gravitylover]

I was hoping that the couple of days between melt off and the rain was enough but no, the basement is flooding  I think it's either coming up through the old floor drain or through the wall at the northeast corner where the snow held on for the longest. 

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I was hoping that the couple of days between melt off and the rain was enough but no, the basement is flooding  I think it's either coming up through the old floor drain or through the wall at the northeast corner where the snow held on for the longest. 

Please kindly bail out your basement so we can resume drought talk, TIA.

[hudsonvalley21]

44/43 with 0.83 in the bucket as of 4pm.

Event total of 1.02 in the bucket.  

[gravitylover]

17 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Please kindly bail out your basement so we can resume drought talk, TIA.

Well, with .9-1" around the hill yesterday that does away with that deficit. The big thing is how much water the melting snow put into the ground compounded with that inch of rain. The precip numbers alone can't tell the story accurately. What do the numbers look like since the fall, so the last 6 months?

[Juliancolton]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Well, with .9-1" around the hill yesterday that does away with that deficit. The big thing is how much water the melting snow put into the ground compounded with that inch of rain. The precip numbers alone can't tell the story accurately. What do the numbers look like since the fall, so the last 6 months?

Yeah, my pond has been overflowing on and off since the melt started a couple weeks ago. 1.05" of rain yesterday. I'm just making fun of all the talk about how we're setting ourselves up for water issues in the summer months... it's probably true in the long run, but hard to compartmentalize climo departures when everything is so waterlogged and muddy.

Precip is BN over 6 months, as well as 12 and probably well beyond that. Synoptic precip events have been on the decline lately. I think it's just a given that we abnormally dry unless there are tropical systems around.

[Juliancolton]

Also, since I know Rob was waiting for my final grade, I give winter a C. March really has done everything in its power to erase the season's redeeming qualities garnered during Feb.

[IrishRob17]

5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Also, since I know Rob was waiting for my final grade, I give winter a C. March really has done everything in its power to erase the season's redeeming qualities garnered during Feb.

Yeah, I was thinking this morning after getting shut out, not that there would’ve been much, that if I were to grade this winter it would be a C, tops. Feb was great but bookended by a lot of meh.  As mentioned by others, December was decent until 12/24.  Agreed on the drought stuff, hard to acknowledge the below normal precipitation this time of year but we’ll see what happens once everything greens ups and leafs out...1.06” yesterday in the Status. 

[ForestHillWx]

I have one final strip of glacier to go. It’s held on in some form since the first flakes fell on January 31.