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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

There's no mystery here on where we are headed.

Rewinding back to one of our great runs from earlier this week.  You've got a neutral trough right at our longitude and you've got a backside vort that is going to help dig and stall even more.  This is a great look for a big storm.

500hv.conus.thumb.png.abf2c7d0c35f49bb81b389961445becb.png

Then you have the NAM this morning.  Positively-tilted trough, not much help on the backside.  This is just a run-of-the-mill storm look around here.  

NAMUS_500_avort_084.png.b5ed1d5b7e8375acb5a2ce1383bda73c.png

And here I am...thinking that suppression was the main concern.

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I was pretty shocked that somebody commented "next" in the main thread. Some of the reactions of non-mets are downright absurd. You're not going to be happy with our first WSW criteria snow in a longgg time? 

I'm elated that I'll actually have the grass fully covered. Signs pointing to us not having a shut the blinds pattern into February too. 

Sometimes in here it feels like when you offer a homeless person some fruit and they turn it down. Good lord. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I was pretty shocked that somebody commented "next" in the main thread. Some of the reactions of non-mets are downright absurd. You're not going to be happy with our first WSW criteria snow in a longgg time? 

I'm elated that I'll actually have the grass fully covered. Signs pointing to us not having a shut the blinds pattern into February too. 

Sometimes in here it feels like when you offer a homeless person some fruit and they turn it down. Good lord. 

I mean, sure? If we get it. Need 5" in Balt City to verify. We have not had that here since January 2016. And MN Transplant just laid down a 2-4 scenario with maybe 1-2 on the backside. That's no sure thing for verified warning criteria. And up this way, the chance of the WAA under-performing is higher than DC and southwest. 

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Just now, H2O said:

They are doing it off the NAM.  The beyond 60hr NAM.  All people are now are model regurgitators.  

I think the comparisons to the earlier depictions at H5 and such are valid. But the people "requiring" 2ft to be happy are treading very close to become Ji clones. We only need one Ji. He has his schtick and it's his. We don't need 30 other Ji's. 

It's gonna snow - you might not have 40ft drifts, but your grass will likely be fully covered, and if you enjoy shoveling, sledding, walking in the snow you will be very happy. Will be biggest snowfall in several years for many people. 

If that depresses you, might be time to take a step back from the computer and go spend some time painting or something. 

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It always comes down to unrealistic expectations based on some Kuchera Snow map from range.  I guarantee people still have that 30"+ euro run in their head and everything thing else is a disappointment. It happens every time we have a storm thread.  It's annoying but it is what it is.  Guidance looks pretty good for a very snowy day SUnday and I'm pretty stoked about it.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I think the comparisons to the earlier depictions at H5 and such are valid. But the people "requiring" 2ft to be happy are treading very close to become Ji clones. We only need one Ji. He has his schtick and it's his. We don't need 30 other Ji's. 

It's gonna snow - you might not have 40ft drifts, but your grass will likely be fully covered, and if you enjoy shoveling, sledding, walking in the snow you will be very happy. Will be biggest snowfall in several years for many people. 

If that depresses you, might be time to take a step back from the computer and go spend some time painting or something. 

I kinda had my hopes set on 6-10. So, yeah, trending toward 3-6 if we get lucky on the backside is kinda sucky. 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

In fairness, that's a red tagger in MN Transplant and also echoed by another red tagger in ers who are leading the way on that...

The red taggers made a valid, and well backed up point. But they aren't saying it's a "next" storm. 3-6 would be my largest storm in several years. The amount of folks acting like they will not be at all satisfied with a 3-6er and signs of a decent long term pattern into February is kind of comical. I get it - we all want to be in the lake effect areas. We aren't. 

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