EastCoast NPZ Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 to 6" here. If we are lucky with WAA. Knew that the coastal was a fantasy for out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anything more than 3 inches here is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yes I don't think the WAA gets up to Sykesville as much and I think the ccb misses Leesburg and clips Sykesville. So pretty much all of the snow for Leesburg is from the WAA and Sykesville splits the difference with both. I think there is upside but I do think these are the bottom. I have a 27% accuracy rate over the last 17 years so..... Hmm ok. Those seem like good numbers to me through like Sunday late evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Anything more than 3 inches here is gravy I don't care much about amounts. I just want to be able to get out and enjoy it without having to worry about a rain soaked sloppy mess. I am rooting for the coldest solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Meanwhile this amazing airmass allowed DCA to tickle 24 degrees for a low in late January. Such an impressive airmass that the high for tomorrow is now around 40. Every advertised cold has underperformed for the past 2-3 years it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I don't care much about amounts. I just want to be able to get out and enjoy it without having to worry about a rain soaked sloppy mess. I am rooting for the coldest solution. Same. If the kids can get out and play in it that's all that matters to me. I don't need much on the ground, just a few inches will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I’m telling friends 3-6 through Sunday and to flush ice cubes Sunday night for an additional 3-6 on Monday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I don't care much about amounts. I just want to be able to get out and enjoy it without having to worry about a rain soaked sloppy mess. I am rooting for the coldest solution. I did like the overnight runs of the euro, jackpotting us twice with around a foot. It's not that far from the GFS either. Foot of snow about 30 miles north on that model. I like where we are at the moment, because I expected everything to go to crap and be talking about over 12 hours of rain. If the euro holds at 12z then I will start to get excited. It usually overcorrects in the short-midrange and I expect the inevitable NW ticks today with the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Weather weenies are a weird bunch to observe. I can understand saying a negative model shift is "concerning" or a "bummer" - but the kind of terms we all sometimes throw around are funny to see. "Disturbing" was one in the main thread. We love snow - but come on guys after the last year or two of missing out on snow I will take something I can shovel and run with it. I would love to have 12+ but if I get 6" so be it - it will look pretty and will be worlds better than any snow I've gotten the past two winters. Some of us folk on here have such wild mood swings based on computers crunching numbers. Trust me - back in 2006 I was as weenie as they come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hmm ok. Those seem like good numbers to me through like Sunday late evening. So it all comes down to the coastal but we all knew that I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: I did like the overnight runs of the euro, jackpotting us twice with around a foot. It's not that far from the GFS either. Foot of snow about 30 miles north on that model. I like where we are at the moment, because I expected everything to go to crap and be talking about over 12 hours of rain. If the euro holds at 12z then I will start to get excited. It usually overcorrects in the short-midrange and I expect the inevitable NW ticks today with the euro. Yup if the GFS makes a small adjustment our way and the EURO adjusts a bit further NW(expected) we should do ok. The thermals on the GFS and esp CMC are awful for here after the thump. I want to see that muted. I'm ok with the warmish 850s, but surface temps of 40 for hours is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just gotta count on getting enough snow OTG before the warm air tries to screw us over and the precip is heavy enough that it produces its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 will you guys pull yourselves together! Euro is the worst outcome when it still shows warning level snows for most? JFC. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Everyone likes to hate on Ji...but a lot of you are just like him just with varying amounts. @psuhoffman - has his south trend meltdowns sometimes but at least they still have scientific backing and he backs up his reasoning. @yoda and I don't freak out when we miss a spring/summer severe day. We just have to try to get back on the horse and keep it going. It's not like we have "lost" this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Just gotta count on getting enough snow OTG before the warm air tries to screw us over and the precip is heavy enough that it produces its own cold air. It has more to do with the proximity/strength of the developing coastal low and the resulting east winds. Cant really overcome that because we lose the surface up to 850. That's why the Euro solution is ideal. Ofc more snow goes hand in hand with the colder solution in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So it all comes down to the coastal but we all knew that I guess It’s hard to believe that there will be basically no deform as the euro is showing when most models have it. But it’s also hard to go against the euro this close in!!! Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, mappy said: will you guys pull yourselves together? Euro is the worst outcome when it still shows warning level snows for most? JFC. Not even worth trying with some of the weenies. I'm first to admit I was sooo bad when I joined the forums back in 2006 - and I was probably bad all the way through the early 2010s. At some point I guess life just shows you that while snow is awesome (and other exciting weather) - we ultimately just keep moving along. I equate it to your favorite sports team losing - it stings, but ultimately you just keep rolling. We're getting some amount of snow. And after the recent snow drought, it'll look great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 To me - what this storm is looking like is a general very nice storm. I don't think we are going to have any areas getting widespread 2+ feet. So if you're looking for a Jan 2016 redux you're of course going to walk away with your tail between your legs. This looks like a good shot to be a "significant" snow event for a huge swath of the area. That alone is a big time win considering how long we've gone without something that actually looks like piled up snow instead of a sloppy event where you still see the blades of grass. If we are realistic about what we expect and end up getting - we'll enjoy the storm. If you want 3ft...I don't know what to tell you other than this is not your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For once I'm glad I live east of DC. I wouldn't want to be north or west of Baltimore or DC though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Everybody hating the Euro and I'm just sitting here in the DC area... 2 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Seems likely this will be the first WSW-level event in DC in two years. I'm happy with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: and the people said “amen”. Remember how much you hated me in 2006 My awkward over-dramatic high school weather phase. Glad that's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Everybody hating the Euro and I'm just sitting here in the DC area... Same lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Everybody hating the Euro and I'm just sitting here in the DC area... It me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 But but but people east of the fall line don't even go to the bathroom inside they shouldn't get more snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Somebody check on PSU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like great day for shift south to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody check on PSU I did. He’s on his way to RVA to avoid being fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 After staying up for 24 hrs yesterday, I passed out so hard and woke up a hour ago. What did I miss? lol Quite the trend in models last night. I don't have much to add that hasn't been touched on. I'll be around for the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It seems like PSU is the mood ring of the storm thread. If he's happy about model runs, thats the general consensus. If he's panic'd about suppression, the mood follows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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