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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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On 1/23/2021 at 9:28 PM, psuhoffman said:

Correct which is why they are ahead of (or under) the downward curve but we’re all feeling it. Just not to that level...yet.  But DCA isn’t totally a local fluke...ask @H2O how it’s been lately in that area. 

Didn't want to let this go unanswered.

Yes, my numbers most winters are similar to DCA.  And the problem is that everyone jokes on how absurd DCAs numbers often are for some events.  But a lot of times my numbers back them up.  On marginal events the anecdotal and true numbers are horrific.  The urban area around me hasn't changed drastically in the last 15-20 years so what is causing things to be terrible for areas just south of DC?  You can't just blame EVERYTHING on elevation or lack thereof.

I have learned that there is/are microclimates all over the DMV.  The same places that get deathbanded over and over even when radar says it should be snizzle.  What I see happening more and more IMBY is:

Longer waits for precip to start(snow hole), lighter echoes where good precip dries up, earlier cut offs, and the biggest one is ease of warm layers both above and surface to punch into my neck of the woods.  

We just don't radiate well anymore and that is a product of UHI.  But for marginal events its lack of cooling AND warmer base state that screw many from seeing frozen.  The base state is getting worse.  I know a lot of data is now showing that its more where lows are just screaming warm the last few years.  And its not just winter.  Its all year long.  Summer lows that are 70s-80s, fall/spring that stay warm.  Everyone stares at high temps and scream thats proof of a warming but its really the lows.  So when you just can't cool off like before then borderline events are already doomed for much of the S DC area.  

I can say without a doubt that to get any sort of good event now you have to have temps in the 20s to start, slamming precip and a perfect track storm.

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5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Didn't want to let this go unanswered.

Yes, my numbers most winters are similar to DCA.  And the problem is that everyone jokes on how absurd DCAs numbers often are for some events.  But a lot of times my numbers back them up.  On marginal events the anecdotal and true numbers are horrific.  The urban area around me hasn't changed drastically in the last 15-20 years so what is causing things to be terrible for areas just south of DC?  You can't just blame EVERYTHING on elevation or lack thereof.

I have learned that there is/are microclimates all over the DMV.  The same places that get deathbanded over and over even when radar says it should be snizzle.  What I see happening more and more IMBY is:

Longer waits for precip to start(snow hole), lighter echoes where good precip dries up, earlier cut offs, and the biggest one is ease of warm layers both above and surface to punch into my neck of the woods.  

We just don't radiate well anymore and that is a product of UHI.  But for marginal events its lack of cooling AND warmer base state that screw many from seeing frozen.  The base state is getting worse.  I know a lot of data is now showing that its more where lows are just screaming warm the last few years.  And its not just winter.  Its all year long.  Summer lows that are 70s-80s, fall/spring that stay warm.  Everyone stares at high temps and scream thats proof of a warming but its really the lows.  So when you just can't cool off like before then borderline events are already doomed for much of the S DC area.  

I can say without a doubt that to get any sort of good event now you have to have temps in the 20s to start, slamming precip and a perfect track storm.

All of these years I just thought you liked rain

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

Most super bowls have good food ties.  Like a KC and GB one would have BBQ and cheese/kielbasa.  Or BUF and GB would be wings and pretzels and beer cheese dip.

This one will be Rib and sand.  TB has nothing to be famous for.  

Wife grew up and was a fan of the orangsicle Bucs...as in was given free tickets and Budweiser vouchers because no one would go to games.  Tampa Bay has great food, Cuban influence for sure!  Cuban sandwiches, great fish/seafood!  Also an awesome craft beer scene down there!  

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14 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol nope. i live up to my name by making maps for a living, so when i say i'm distracted by too many maps, i mean that :lol:

LOL!!  I hope you are doing well, friend, with everything going on!  I don't expect much here where I'm at in terms of snow, but at least it might be interesting and a little bit wintry-looking!

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

Didn't want to let this go unanswered.

Yes, my numbers most winters are similar to DCA.  And the problem is that everyone jokes on how absurd DCAs numbers often are for some events.  But a lot of times my numbers back them up.  On marginal events the anecdotal and true numbers are horrific.  The urban area around me hasn't changed drastically in the last 15-20 years so what is causing things to be terrible for areas just south of DC?  You can't just blame EVERYTHING on elevation or lack thereof.

I have learned that there is/are microclimates all over the DMV.  The same places that get deathbanded over and over even when radar says it should be snizzle.  What I see happening more and more IMBY is:

Longer waits for precip to start(snow hole), lighter echoes where good precip dries up, earlier cut offs, and the biggest one is ease of warm layers both above and surface to punch into my neck of the woods.  

We just don't radiate well anymore and that is a product of UHI.  But for marginal events its lack of cooling AND warmer base state that screw many from seeing frozen.  The base state is getting worse.  I know a lot of data is now showing that its more where lows are just screaming warm the last few years.  And its not just winter.  Its all year long.  Summer lows that are 70s-80s, fall/spring that stay warm.  Everyone stares at high temps and scream thats proof of a warming but its really the lows.  So when you just can't cool off like before then borderline events are already doomed for much of the S DC area.  

I can say without a doubt that to get any sort of good event now you have to have temps in the 20s to start, slamming precip and a perfect track storm.

The microclimate thing is super interesting, I live in the general area as @H2O though I have the tropical Potomac lurking about 500 yards to my east.  I am due south of DCA, and old town, for the most part my weather mirrors DCA with some major exceptions.  I find my snowfall is generally greater than DCA during a widespread event, by about 2-5 inches during big dogs.  In all the 2009-2010 storms and with 2016 I found this to be the case.  Jokes about how they measure DCA snowfall aside, I have been trying to figure out why.  Biggest theory is the UHI.  I am way less urban than DCA/old town.  Single family neighborhoods with lots of trees and lots of forested parkland make a ton of difference.  I usually drop 5 degrees on the car thermometer from old town to my house.  The snow we got in November of 2018 could be a perfect example of how this benefits me, though it’s extremely rare.    

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13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

LOL!!  I hope you are doing well, friend, with everything going on!  I don't expect much here where I'm at in terms of snow, but at least it might be interesting and a little bit wintry-looking!

Doing alright all things considered. Hope you are doing well too!

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

Like maps are what really distracts you.  :P

LOL 

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Ya know, I've had periods in my life where others have said that I was negative or too contrarian whether in my professional life or personal...I've tried really hard for years to focus on fixing that even though I didn't recognize it in myself. What really stands out on this forum is there are some people who no matter what the situation or the conversation are just completely and totally negative about things. It's pretty fascinating to see it in others and it makes me realize....what a total fu*king douche I was...some may argue I still am but jesus god almighty some of you should just jump in a lake wearing a plastic bag over your head.

Hugs and Kisses

Leesburg 04

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2 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Probably several...also, Hooters was invented in Tampa, so that raises the “class” bar!

Well now TB has redeemed itself!!!!  Maybe once things are back to normal I'll go to a hooters again.  Haven't been in like forever.

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