January Banter 2021

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

They have their Siberian summer Russian imperial stout on tap 

I'm miffed at Siberia right now.  They have stolen all our cold.

[Baltimorewx]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm miffed at Siberia right now.  They have stolen all our cold.

Might as well drink their beer lol or at least one named after them anyway 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, caviman2201 said:

Had a ton of oranges that I didn't want to see go bad... Juicer and Tito's helped fix the issue. How's the snow coming along?

Mmmm Tito’s 

[snowfan]

Disclaimer: not posting this to start a debate about CC. Just talking/analyzing numbers,trends,etc. I hope this is fair to discuss on here.

Been seeing lots of talk on the board recently about just how it is to snow around here now. Below are the last 50 years of snowfall at BWI w average and median plotted. Our most recent 2 winters have sucked thus far to state the obvious, but highs and lows have and always will be there. Variability has increased w the obvious outliers sticking out like a sore thumb.....95-96, 02-03, and 09-10 on the high end. Our most recent 10 year period had the lowest avg (16.6”) of the 5 decades followed closely by 1970-1971 to 1979-1980 (17.2”).

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Disclaimer: not posting this to start a debate about CC. Just talking/analyzing numbers,trends,etc. I hope this is fair to discuss on here.

Been seeing lots of talk on the board recently about just how it is to snow around here now. Below are the last 50 years of snowfall at BWI w average and median plotted. Our most recent 2 winters have sucked thus far to state the obvious, but highs and lows have and always will be there. Variability has increased w the obvious outliers sticking out like a sore thumb.....95-96, 02-03, and 09-10 on the high end. Our most recent 10 year period had the lowest avg (16.6”) of the 5 decades followed closely by 1970-1971 to 1979-1980 (17.2”).

I think the biggest impact is it’s turning some of our already bad years into atrocious dumpster fires. A year that maybe was destined to be 9” or 11” ( bad but not god awful) before is like 5” now.  DC is on the verge of having 5 winters (2011/12, 12/13, 16/17, 19/20 and 20/21???) in the last 10 that would all have qualified as a “dud of the decade” in most 10 year stretches from 1880 to 2000.  That’s kinda hard to resolve as bad luck. 

[snowfan]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the biggest impact is it’s turning some of our already bad years into atrocious dumpster fires. A year that maybe was destined to be 9” or 11” ( bad but not god awful) before is like 5” now.  DC is on the verge of having 5 winters (2011/12, 12/13, 16/17, 19/20 and 20/21???) in the last 10 that would all have qualified as a “dud of the decade” in most 10 year stretches from 1880 to 2000.  That’s kinda hard to resolve as bad luck. 

Fair point on DC. 4 of the last 10 seasons w < 5”. That’s abysmal. DCA is also in THE absolutely worst spot in the area especially for marginal events, which are our speciality. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Fair point on DC. 4 of the last 10 seasons w < 5”. That’s abysmal. DCA is also in THE absolutely worst spot in the area especially for marginal events, which are our speciality. 

Correct which is why they are ahead of (or under) the downward curve but we’re all feeling it. Just not to that level...yet.  But DCA isn’t totally a local fluke...ask @H2O how it’s been lately in that area. 

[SnowLover22]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the biggest impact is it’s turning some of our already bad years into atrocious dumpster fires. A year that maybe was destined to be 9” or 11” ( bad but not god awful) before is like 5” now.  DC is on the verge of having 5 winters (2011/12, 12/13, 16/17, 19/20 and 20/21???) in the last 10 that would all have qualified as a “dud of the decade” in most 10 year stretches from 1880 to 2000.  That’s kinda hard to resolve as bad luck. 

I always have wondered what experiencing winters pre-industrial revolution climate would have been like. My guess is DC in the 1800s averaged at least 10 more inches of snow but would have look at the data. 

[SnowLover22]

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I always have wondered what experiencing winters pre-industrial revolution climate would have been like. My guess is DC in the 1800s averaged at least 10 more inches of snow but would have look at the data. 

update: From Washington Post, imrs.php-2.jp2 It is easy to see the decline. Seems like 10-15 more inches on average would have been a good bet for early 1800s extrapolating the trend-line back a little further. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

update: From Washington Post, imrs.php-2.jp2 It is easy to see the decline. Seems like 10-15 more inches on average would have been a good bet for early 1800s extrapolating the trend-line back a little further. 

In 130 years DCs mean snowfall has gone from ~22” to ~14” in a very steady rate of decline. This (the fact it’s warning and snowing less) doesn’t seem debatable Imo. The cause may be but we’re not getting into THAT! 

[SnowLover22]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In 130 years DCs mean snowfall has gone from ~22” to ~14” in a very steady rate of decline. This (the fact it’s warning and snowing less) doesn’t seem debatable Imo. The cause may be but we’re not getting into THAT! 

it is frustrating when you think about it. This same exact winter 130 years ago probably would have produced already double digit snowfall for the season by now. You remember that storm back in December where you mixed to sleet, that would have been all snow for you and you would have gotten probably a foot of snow out of it. And now that I am thinking about it with a colder background state, the baroclinic zone  would have been further south for that storm so I am sure some of these misses to the north so far this winter would not have been back then. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Replying to this in banter.

I try to look around and be appreciative of the entire civilization that is associated with our warmer base state.  Flooding the atmosphere with "you know what" isn't just some enormous accident; it is the byproduct of a transformation in the world which has impacted every aspect of human life, and has led to this being the most materially secure, healthiest, best educated, well-fed generation in the history of the species.  Our warmer world is a price we are paying for the houses we live in, the food we eat, the cars we drive, the electricity we have, the medicine we take. the knowledge we have in our heads and the phones that we carry around in our pocket.  As much as I hate warming, so far I would say it has been a good bargain for our species.  Whether it remains so in the future remains to be seen of course.

Put it another way; we would all love to return to snowfall and cold from the 1880's, but would we be willing to take the 1880's standard of living that comes along with it? 

We could just move. God willing I’ll be in Colorado or New England ski country someday and not stressing model runs to get snow. I’ll still always do this...but it’s less stressful when you know even if this one misses there will be another and it will snow. 

[NorthArlington101]

Tough game for UVA. Win is a win though.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Was there asphalt in DC in 1890 ? Or 1930? 

Huge Urban development, UHI,population changes 

There’s definitely some of that. And for snow events, we obviously notice it.
 

Doesn’t cover why Great Lakes ice is at a record low, why the whole planet is warm, etc. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What about Bwi, philly, pitt, Boston, NY, Rich ? 

 

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Was there asphalt in DC in 1890 ? Or 1930? 

Huge Urban development, population changes 

Careful we’re slipping close to the part of the discussion I said we’re NOT having. But I have looked at the data and so I’ll simply answer from a purely numbers pov. Yes the UHI has made the heating and corresponding degradation of snowfall even more pronounced in urban recording stations.  So yes urban centers are ahead of the curve. But non urban recording stations are warming also just not as fast.  Now snowfall is tricky. Here seems to be the rub...because big ticket events due to increased potential energy due to warming,  places north of a certain line or at high enough elevation are actually seeing their snowfall increase a bit but their variance also is going up. More big years and more duds. The average ends up a slight net increase. We (you and I) are literally right at the edge of that zone.  Looking at coop data back to the 1800s our mean snowfall is actually up about 2” and our frequency of 10”+ events is way up but the chances of a sub 30” and sub 20” winter is also increasing.  We’re getting more extremes. Places south of us without elevation are on the losing side of this equation. The slightly more frequent big storms are not offsetting the loss of snow in marginal setups. That’s logical since more of their snow was marginal temp wise to begin with. And that trend is true is non urban data points also but yes it’s more extreme in the UHI. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I guess I'm saying this warmer base state stuff ...I haven't seen anything imby to back any of this up . Is there climate change happening....probably.  But how much is Earth natural cycles and how much is man . And at what rate . I personally think it's been exaggerated but that's mo

Let’s avoid the cause debate. It gets ugly and no one is changing anyone’s mind because nowadays everyone just dismisses things they don’t agree with anyways. So why risk upsetting people and killing relationships on here. But we have thermometers in lots of places and they aren’t all urban. We can confirm it’s getting warmer and it’s not all a result of the UHI.  We don’t have to debate why or whose fault it is to talk about the effects on the weather which is what we’re all here for. The politics can go somewhere else. 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

it is frustrating when you think about it. This same exact winter 130 years ago probably would have produced already double digit snowfall for the season by now. You remember that storm back in December where you mixed to sleet, that would have been all snow for you and you would have gotten probably a foot of snow out of it. And now that I am thinking about it with a colder background state, the baroclinic zone  would have been further south for that storm so I am sure some of these misses to the north so far this winter would not have been back then. 

I was 90% snow in that event and got 10”. The bigger problem was the huge dryslot that punched all the way to central PA. But that was a result of a warm layer in the mid levels killing lift so it’s all related.  Your points are correct though in general. 

[snowfan]

Here’s DC snowfall w trend line since 1942 when recording moved to DCA. There’s a trend of increased variability w big extremes....both high and low that you’ll see at many other reporting locations.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Let’s avoid the cause debate. It gets ugly and no one is changing anyone’s mind because nowadays everyone just dismisses things they don’t agree with anyways. So why risk upsetting people and killing relationships on here. But we have thermometers in lots of places and they aren’t all urban. We can confirm it’s getting warmer and it’s not all a result of the UHI.  We don’t have to debate why or whose fault it is to talk about the effects on the weather which is what we’re all here for. The politics can go somewhere else. 

Thanks for your comments in here and in the main discussion threads on this subject and the overall trends, @psuhoffman.  You've been very restrained in not getting too much into the "political" argument about whatever warming has been occurring or why, which is admirable.  Though I can pretty well guess where you stand on that argument, and I'm of the same opinion just to put that out there (assuming I'm correct in my assumption on your stance...will leave it at that, though!).  Agree with your thoughts too on why there is actually (paradoxically?) a relative increase in the "big dog" storms even as the environment in general is warming...more energy, and if you're lucky enough to have the right temperature profile, you'll get hammered with a big snow.  Places far enough north or high enough in elevation would benefit the most as you say, from such storms.

It is disheartening to see the trends of marginal events over time though, especially for places that are already geographically "on the edge" (like DC, or I guess you could say 40 degrees and south in general).  Even just in the past couple of decades (length of time I've been in this area), I think I've observed it.  Some of that could be bad luck in some seasons, but I think some is also the general trend.  I wonder what the Jan. 2011 event (your PSU storm!) would have done in this year's climate, for instance.  That really was kind of marginal, at least in and around the DC area.  Where I'm located, it was at or a tad above freezing through the event pretty much, but it was pounding snow (8" in about 5 hours!).  Very heavy, very wet, and you could practically hear some of it running off and melting almost right after the snow stopped (it then turned into a brick overnight).  Would that be mostly rain in the current environment, specifically this year...just 10 years later now?  That's just one example.  Another is...remember the late Feb. 2007 event (Feb. 25 sticks in my mind for the date)?  Nearly isothermal sounding from the surface up through the boundary layer and right near freezing.  We were forecast to get ice/sleet mostly from that, but we ended up with heavy snow for awhile, like 5-6", followed by some light drizzle after it ended.  It stuck to everything.  I wonder what that would have done now?

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Thanks for your comments in here and in the main discussion threads on this subject and the overall trends, @psuhoffman.  You've been very restrained in not getting too much into the "political" argument about whatever warming has been occurring or why, which is admirable.  Though I can pretty well guess where you stand on that argument, and I'm of the same opinion just to put that out there (assuming I'm correct in my assumption on your stance...will leave it at that, though!).  Agree with your thoughts too on why there is actually (paradoxically?) a relative increase in the "big dog" storms even as the environment in general is warming...more energy, and if you're lucky enough to have the right temperature profile, you'll get hammered with a big snow.  Places far enough north or high enough in elevation would benefit the most as you say, from such storms.

It is disheartening to see the trends of marginal events over time though, especially for places that are already geographically "on the edge" (like DC, or I guess you could say 40 degrees and south in general).  Even just in the past couple of decades (length of time I've been in this area), I think I've observed it.  Some of that could be bad luck in some seasons, but I think some is also the general trend.  I wonder what the Jan. 2011 event (your PSU storm!) would have done in this year's climate, for instance.  That really was kind of marginal, at least in and around the DC area.  Where I'm located, it was at or a tad above freezing through the event pretty much, but it was pounding snow (8" in about 5 hours!).  Very heavy, very wet, and you could practically hear some of it running off and melting almost right after the snow stopped (it then turned into a brick overnight).  Would that be mostly rain in the current environment, specifically this year...just 10 years later now?  That's just one example.  Another is...remember the late Feb. 2007 event (Feb. 25 sticks in my mind for the date)?  Nearly isothermal sounding from the surface up through the boundary layer and right near freezing.  We were forecast to get ice/sleet mostly from that, but we ended up with heavy snow for awhile, like 5-6", followed by some light drizzle after it ended.  It stuck to everything.  I wonder what that would have done now?

Don’t ask questions you won’t like the answer too. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t ask questions you won’t like the answer too. 

Haha!  Well, I can guess.  Those were just a couple of examples off the top of my head that were "marginal", and was wondering how they would have turned out in the current environment.  I would wager the result wouldn't have been so good.

[SnowDreamer]

I've officially hit weenie stock-market-bubble-like elation. I'm now torn between being thrilled by the 00Z runs and being terrified of the EURO later. 

[mappy]

Thanks @psuhoffman for keeping an eye on that line 

[yoda]

Welp biggest 00z Euro run of this winter has started 

[Jebman]

Later this month and especially next month are starting to look very good for snow and cold for the Mid Atlantic! Things are lining up!

There's gonna be a lot of model watching! Ready those shovels up there!

The Reaper is goin out of business!

[NorthArlington101]

I’m definitely in the bargaining stage but looking at the EURO... there are worse things than 12 hours of snow when it’s subfreezing. Sure it’s the lightest snow of all time, but I’d probably take that run begrudgingly given that I still think 0” is a real possibility.

[dailylurker]

How the hell did we ever get snow in this area before? It seems like something that should happen once every 50 years as complicated as it is. One little fart and the entire system shits the bad. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

How the hell did we ever get snow in this area before? It seems like something that should happen once every 50 years as complicated as it is. One little fart and the entire system shits the bad. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Snow ending by noon in Green Bay. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I just love it when people say they “know” what is going to happen.

No you don’t. So stop saying it.